Any predictions on the Georgia Senate runoffs?

[Hardkill]

Hey guys, so I know we are getting really sick and tired of the ongoing 2020 election races. However, tomorrow will be the Election Day/Night of the Georgia Senate runoffs, which have become extremely crucial for both the Democrats and Republicans because of how high the political stakes have become for both sides. Needless to say, if both Ossoff and Warnock, who are the democratic candidates, win their races then the Democratic Party will have ultimately regained control of the US Senate chamber. However, if even one of the democratic candidates loses their race, then the Republican Party will ultimately retain control of the US Senate chamber.

Now, things seems to be really looking up for both Ossoff and Warnock according to both the most recent polls and unprecedented amount of early voting that has occurred. Also, Biden/Harris did win the state of Georgia for the presidential election which in a way makes it another good sign for the Dems. Also, some political experts have been saying that Trump has been constantly jeopardizing the chances of both Loeffler and Perdue getting re-elected. Yet, Georgia has still always been a very red state and Perdue and Loeffler, who are the republican candidates, are unfortunately the incumbents.

I know that a lot of political analysts are still saying that they still don't truly know who are really going to win the senatorial races, but because we are now only day away from them I was wondering if any of you have any predictions or bets on who you think will win those two seats?

Edited January 4, 2021 by Hardkill

[NatureB]

I was in Atlanta in early December knocking doors for the Ossoff/Warnock campaigns. 95% of people in Atlanta are voting blue it seems like. Just have to worry about getting the rural vote, which skews red. We'll know better how 2021 will play out politically as soon as we get these results!

There is a statistic that shows 94% of incumbents win re-runs for office. Let's hope we upset this!

[Blackhawk]

This feels almost like Biden vs Trump (republicans) election #2.

It's huge news here in Sweden too.

I realllly hope that the democrats win.

In my opinion the republicans don't deserve anything anymore. All of them should be put in jail for being a threat to national security, democracy, and the world.

It would be so sad if the anti-democratic asshole republicans win and then they will constantly down vote everything Biden tries to do. They will keep destroying America and the world.

Trump is trying to do a soft coup, and still so many people are supporting him and voting for him. It's unreal.

 

I read something that if the democrats win, they would be able to nominate for example Bernie Sanders for something.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Blackhawk

[Gidiot]

@Blackhawk joe Biden doesn’t want Bernie in his cabinet or Elizabeth warren, Kamala bent the knee pretty hard to be VP.

maybe the dems will win I certainly want to see what they can do for two years until the midterms with complete control, they haven’t had complete control since the 90s I don’t think.

[Hardkill]

Shit. So, you guys have no idea how this going to go. 

I am really worried about what will happen with the Biden administration if the Dems don't regain the Senate control.

[DocWatts]

13 hours ago, Gidiot said:

@Blackhawk joe Biden doesn’t want Bernie in his cabinet or Elizabeth warren, Kamala bent the knee pretty hard to be VP.

maybe the dems will win I certainly want to see what they can do for two years until the midterms with complete control, they haven’t had complete control since the 90s I don’t think.

True, but even if Dems do end up winning in Georgia and gain control of the Senate by a razor thin majority, Republican obstructionism is going to be an almost insurmountable obstacle to any serious policy proposals that Biden hopes to pass over the next two years. The desk of Mitch McConnel is where Reform proposals (or even laws aimed at good governance such as increased oversight and accountability) go to die.

Edited January 5, 2021 by DocWatts

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, DocWatts said:

True, but even if Dems do end up winning in Georgia and gain control of the Senate by a razor thin majority, Republican obstructionism is going to be an almost insurmountable obstacle to any serious policy proposals that Biden hopes to pass over the next two years. The desk of Mitch McConnel is where Reform proposals (or even laws aimed at good governance such as increased oversight and accountability) go to die.

Why would it still be an an almost insurmountable obstacle even if the Dems do end up winning both seats in Georgia?

[Forestluv]

@Hardkill Unless Dems nuke the filibuster, Rs can pretty much block any legislation. Like they did to Obama. Plus, the last time Dems had a 50-50 tie, they played nice and shared power with Rs. And for simple majorities, Ds would not be able lose a single D vote - and conservative Dems like Manchin would be problematic.

Yet it would still be a big shift. Ds would be able to set the agenda and be able to get through more moderate judges.

[DocWatts]

14 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

@Hardkill Unless Dems nuke the filibuster, Rs can pretty much block any legislation. Like they did to Obama. Plus, the last time Dems had a 50-50 tie, they played nice and shared power with Rs. And for simple majorities, Ds would not be able lose a single D vote - and conservative Dems like Manchin would be problematic.

Yet it would still be a big shift. Ds would be able to set the agenda and be able to get through more moderate judges.

Basically this. Also keep in mind that the current Republican Party's entire governing platform is one of intentional obstructionism until they can claw thier way back in to power, and as such will not even attempt to work in Good Faith with the Democratic opposition.

Any sort of policy Reforms from a Biden administration will almost certainly have to be based on things that are changeable from the Executive Branch without needing Senate approval, and as such will be much more limited in scope.

Edited January 5, 2021 by DocWatts

[Leo Gura]

I predict Dems lose.

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

I predict Dems lose.

Damn. So, then what will Biden be able to get done without the Senate majority?

 

[Blackhawk]

If the people in Georgia would just be normal, then the democrats would win big time.

Is it too much asked of people to be normal and have a healthy brain? Why is it so difficult to not be crazy?

Edited January 6, 2021 by Blackhawk

[Hardkill]

3 hours ago, Forestluv said:

@Hardkill Unless Dems nuke the filibuster, Rs can pretty much block any legislation. Like they did to Obama. Plus, the last time Dems had a 50-50 tie, they played nice and shared power with Rs. And for simple majorities, Ds would not be able lose a single D vote - and conservative Dems like Manchin would be problematic.

Yet it would still be a big shift. Ds would be able to set the agenda and be able to get through more moderate judges.

Why do the Dems play nice and share power with Republicans and not the other way around?

[Forestluv]

With 42% in, the NYT needle has both races as tilt Dem, yet too close to call.

[Forestluv]

 

 

[Peter-Andre]

The problem for Democrats is that they have to win both seats, while Republicans only have to win one to keep control of the senate. This means that there are three scenarios where Republicans win control, but only one where Democrats do. However, the Democrats seem to be slightly favored in both races, so I don't know exactly how to calculate their odds with this in mind. Any mathematicians here?

[Leo Gura]

Either way it should be razor thin.

[Forestluv]

With 78% in, both races have shifted to lean Dem. Both Dems are outperforming Biden.

[Peter-Andre]

17 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Either way it should be razor thin.

No doubt

Edited January 6, 2021 by Peter-Andre

[Forestluv]

Looks like both Dems will win. The Ossoff - Purdue race is closer and Ossoff is down a bit with 77% reported. Yet most of the remaining ballots are in the Atlanta area where he should curb stomp Purdue to the tune of 85-15

Warnock should win by more than 1%, which is outside the margin of recount.
Ossoff might be within the recount margin.

If both win, there will be intense GOP in fighting and more Rs may feel empowered to distance themselves from Trump.