China and Australia - it's getting worse

[SamueLSD]

China has recently been treating Australia as if it is a pawn, essentially forcing Australia to choose between them and the US. 

Military tensions are rising, especially after the new defence pact that Scott Morrison signed with Japan, and Chinas unwelcome presence in the Indo-pacific. 

A cold war is already underway. China has stopped shipping many goods to Australia in retaliation to the prime ministers inquisition into the poor handling of corona virus, and the fact that China completely covered it up at the start, essentially fucking over the rest of the world.

The close relationship between the US and Australia is also another reason why things are deteriorating, fast. 

I sense some sort of military confrontation coming about soon. If not, then certainly some sort of economic warfare more devastating than what we are already seeing. 

What do you guys think of all this?

sorry about the mainstream news videos

 

This is NOT a violent photo btw - it is a photoshopped tweet that is talked about in the above video ^ 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by SamueLSD

[electroBeam]

I think the chances of conventional warfare with Australia and china within the next decade is about 10% or less. I think the chances of a war(either economically, politically or less likely through conventional warfare) between China and Taiwan is about 50% or more in the next decade.

I don't really see Australia having any interest in securing the South China Sea on a military front beyond pleasing the US. There's just too much risk and not enough reward for Australia to get involved that way. I can see Australia increasing its military defense to protect the Timor Sea though. Also Australia's culture is very much anti military and anti war, Australia is just too laid back to start anything ambitious military wise, and the Labor political party is largely against standing up to China diplomatically, let alone through military conflict.

I think that Australia and China's trade relationship isn't going to get much better in the future. Definitely Australia and China will remained significantly decoupled compared to other nations in Asia. The biggest thing for Australia I think is how it will restructure its diplomacy to compensate for better trade with other nations now that China is a loosing battle.

I also don't think other Asian nations that have a say in the south china sea really have a strong interest or capability to counter China's rise in the South China Sea. Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, are all deeply tied to China economically, much more then Australia, and risk economic tariffs and sanctions as what was done to Australia if they question China's rise.

And the US did reduce their presence in Asia so I think China's rise is inevitable, without much military conflict beyond taking Taiwan.

 

[SamueLSD]

1 hour ago, electroBeam said:

I don't really see Australia having any interest in securing the South China Sea on a military front beyond pleasing the US.

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if Scomo gets on his knees for Biden.

Yeah war isn't exactly likely, right now anyway. But Beijing continues to do provoking shit and I feel like war will be far more likely in year, or even a year to come. If China sees Australia is reluctant to let them freelance around the south china sea / indo-pacific, they will make sure to threaten us while doing so.

 

[SamueLSD]

@Keyhole  Well, Australia has done plenty to please the US (military wise) when we quite frankly weren't needed to, so hopefully they will back us directly. We have a defence pact with the US anyway, China threatening Australia is basically China threatening America.

@electroBeam Russia is getting involved with condemning Aussie war crimes now, just after China commented. What a surprise... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/russia-condemns-afghanistan-war-crimes/12933224 

[electroBeam]

7 minutes ago, SamueLSD said:

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if Scomo gets on his knees for Biden.

The problem is the US doesn't really have an interest in maintaining Asia's international order beyond the US's direct interests such as maintaining military prevalence and securing its influence over countries in the Asia Pacific such as Australia, the Philippines and Japan. The US largely isn't good for Australia in Asia. The US is much more determined to get Australia to do shit that harms Australia's interests purely for US interests, and the US will use its bigger economy and dominance to make that happen. Australia can't keep highly dependent on the US or China, and I think they've finally noticed that because they have been signing deals with middle powers like Japan and the UK.

5 minutes ago, SamueLSD said:

 

@electroBeam Russia is getting involved with condemning Aussie war crimes now, just after China commented. What a surprise... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/russia-condemns-afghanistan-war-crimes/12933224 

Russia can go fuck itself. The the US's problem, Russia aint anywhere near Australia.

12 minutes ago, SamueLSD said:

Yeah war isn't exactly likely, right now anyway. But Beijing continues to do provoking shit and I feel like war will be far more likely in year, or even a year to come. If China sees Australia is reluctant to let them freelance around the south china sea / indo-pacific, they will make sure to threaten us while doing so.

All that post is doing is getting the lefties and hippies more angry over China, so that the right and the left are on the same side when it comes to judgement against China. I doubt that will cause military conflict. What's more likely to cause military conflict is China's military presence in areas that the US and Australia are operating in.

7 minutes ago, SamueLSD said:

@Keyhole  China threatening Australia is basically China threatening America.

Not really IMO, the US isn't as stringent as that. It will only help Australia if it sees value in doing so, and even then it will only help Australia in ways that benefits it.

52 minutes ago, Keyhole said:

U.S. won't tolerate countries that make it feel small.

Yep that's where the Middle East conflict came from

55 minutes ago, Keyhole said:

We work towards greater freedom of expression rather than trade.

Yep including multiple freedom protests and 13.6 M covid cases

 

[SamueLSD]

13 minutes ago, electroBeam said:

Not really IMO, the US isn't as stringent as that. It will only help Australia if it sees value in doing so, and even then it will only help Australia in ways that benefits it.

Don't we have a defence agreement?

[electroBeam]

31 minutes ago, SamueLSD said:

Don't we have a defence agreement?

We had a trade agreement with china too

Long story short, agreements of any sorts can always be manipulated to suit a unique country's interest, beyond that of the original intention of the agreement. Just like the bible and Quaran. Its not agreements that hold agreements together, its mutual interests and exchanges.

Australia's contribution to wars with the US is of course to keep the military alliance going, but what plays an even bigger role IMO is the legacy of the US's saviour of Australia during world war 2.

Edited December 1, 2020 by electroBeam

[SamueLSD]

@electroBeam True.

[Rolo]

@SamueLSD  The problem with Australia is that its media is heavily dominated by conservative ideology. Over 70 percent of Australian news papers are owned by Rupert Merdoch, That being said, There is a cancer in Australian democracy. 

Australia has been on the fighting front with China and I think that it will give other countries the oppertunity to support a fellow democratic country through trade.

China is a political tradgedy, and i think the rest of the world is going to wake up to ccp tactics, potentially at the expence of the Australian economy, but i think the US will play a more aggressive card if it becomes too damaging.

[SamueLSD]

@Rolo Yeah mate I love seeing Australia cooperating with smaller nations, we are going to start sending troops to Japan soon to train up and learn to work efficiently together, which again is part of the reason China is unhappy