Bitcoin will reach 100k by the end of next year + "proof" + Make your predictions

[Leo Gura]

Be careful not to mislead people into speculative investing.

[Heart of Space]

14 hours ago, datamonster said:

Realistically when they approve such extraordinary stimulus packages, as they did recently due to covid, you can expect to lose 10% - 20% of purchasing power, which is why you should invest right now.

How long it will take for the inflationary effect to be really noticable depends on a variety of factors such as how fast the newly created money is changing hands, etc., but it will happen for sure.

If the stimulus does what it is supposed to, which is to counteract deflationary pressure, you won't necessarily see absurd levels of inflation.  It's the same reason why right now would be a good time to increase spending on public utilities like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.  Massive government spending is healthy in times of economic strife.

Given that most of the stimulus is top down and that your average person got only 1200 amid a massive crisis where a huge number of people are having their job and finances nuked I don't think you'll necessarily see broad increases in inflation across the entire economy.  Now, the equities market will inflate and has, and things like property value and other things rich people buy may sharply increase in value.  Our economy is going to be in a weird place for a long time.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Heart of Space

[JosephKnecht]

4 hours ago, Heart of Space said:

If the stimulus does what it is supposed to, which is to counteract deflationary pressure, you won't necessarily see absurd levels of inflation.  It's the same reason why right now would be a good time to increase spending on public utilities like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.  Massive government spending is healthy in times of economic strife.

Given that most of the stimulus is top down and that your average person got only 1200 amid a massive crisis where a huge number of people are having their job and finances nuked I don't think you'll necessarily see broad increases in inflation across the entire economy.  Now, the equities market will inflate and has, and things like property value and other things rich people buy may sharply increase in value.  Our economy is going to be in a weird place for a long time.

What is an absurd level of inflation? The governments are targeting an average 2% inflation which in my mind is already absurd. 

One characteristic of money is to serve as a store of value.

If money is devalued on purpose, people may seek alternative forms of money.

[tsuki]

On 9.11.2020 at 5:17 AM, Average Investor said:

When, I see posts about bitcoin price predictions on actualized to me it would be a good indicator to sell. If you were trying to time the market that is. In my opinion just put it aside and forget about it. 

I heard that statement in relation to the "average person" that is not informed about cryptocurrencies. Why is that?

Is it about the rise of the bubble where people that can't assess the value suddenly become interested in it?

[Guest SirVladimir]

3 hours ago, tsuki said:

I heard that statement in relation to the "average person" that is not informed about cryptocurrencies. Why is that?

Because the smart big players have already made their profit. Have you ever seen mass media shill 'The future looks bright, don't miss out, look at that growth!' only to see the prices plummet the next day? Suddenly, the media's narrative changes to 'See? We've told you.'

The media are like Trump. 

Anyway, let's do a thought experiment to answer your question furthermore... If the supposed 'golden standards of trading' work, upon which trade 90% of the people, how come 90% of traders lose money in trading? That's a well known statistic. How come the seemingly informed indicators, strategies, media, always fail?

If you're a smart big player and you know 9 out of 10 people trade on the same information, same media, same charts, what would you do and how would you act? Doesn't that make for a predictable market?

[Average Investor]

4 hours ago, tsuki said:

I heard that statement in relation to the "average person" that is not informed about cryptocurrencies. Why is that?

Is it about the rise of the bubble where people that can't assess the value suddenly become interested in it?

Kind of like how you have seen in the stock market so many people getting in who have really no idea how it works. A lot of younger people as well. Not saying I didn't buy some stocks either. Just for a retirement account though. Unusually, this would be a good indicator that the market is being driven up by just fear of missing out and newbies. Once it starts to go down they are going to sell even at a loss and send it down further.

If you notice the markets are higher than before covid. The amount of unemployment is around levels of the great depression, lots of businesses going under, inflation, and lots of measures being put in place to keep the economy a float. Some of those businesses are killing it, but it just puts it in perspective of how things really are going. I read a book call the great crash of 1929 and it outlined all of the reasons for the great depression and what happened with it. This is really similar to that. I added in the quote here some of my notes from the book. There was also things like natural disasters going on like we are seeing a lot of. Not that I am coming here to predict a market crash, I just want to give you something for a point of reference. The great crash of 1929 is a good book if you want to understand it better. 

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Cause for crash:

Unequal distribution of income. Causing the market to too heavily rely on the top 5% to buy luxury goods etc.

 

Bad corporate structure-

Lots of bad holding companies, investment trusts and swindlers. Over leveraged companies. Leading to a lot of bankruptcies.

 

Bad banking structure-

Over lending and taking bad collateral. Once value fell, unemployment rose, and values fell, then bank failures became more prevalent.

 

The state of foreign balance-

Lending to other countries and late having them not able to cover the balance.

 

Poor state of economic intelligence:

Lots of bad advice from "reputable" sources.

Also, good example would be just seeing someone you know who has never mentioned investing all of the sudden be really into it. I've been on this forum a few years ago and even the amount of topics around bitcoin here is scarce, but once the price goes up you can see how much interest there is. Also, if you mention stuff about it while the price is down people take it much less seriously even though nothing has changed aside from the price lol. I can't really tell you where the price will go for it. However, if you observe the market cycles you can get a better understanding of what is going on. 

[CharlieWex]

I believe that Bitcoin is the future. 100% of the currency we are all used to, but the future is definitely Bitcoin.

[Heart of Space]

9 hours ago, JosephKnecht said:

What is an absurd level of inflation? The governments are targeting an average 2% inflation which in my mind is already absurd. 

One characteristic of money is to serve as a store of value.

If money is devalued on purpose, people may seek alternative forms of money.

That's not absurd at all.  The purpose of money is to drive behavior and economic activity.  The purpose of devaluing money is to incentivize doing something with your money rather than hording it.  It also makes it so your debts lessen in value over time as well.  If you want a good store of value go invest your money in something that holds or gains value.  

When you incentivize hording of money what do you think happens?  If everyone becomes scared, stops spending and hordes money the value of money goes up and deflation happens in your economy.  Debts increase in value in an economy based on debt, companies profits go down the drain because of lack of demand.  It can cause what's called a deflationary death spiral, which is what caused the great depression.  

This is why centralized currency is a necessity.  Deflationary currencies like gold or bitcoin would be idiotic to implement.  

[JosephKnecht]

@Heart of Space

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Functions of Money

Money has three primary functions. It is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value:

Medium of Exchange: When money is used to intermediate the exchange of goods and services, it is performing a function as a medium of exchange.

Unit of Account: It is a standard numerical unit of measurement of market value of goods, services, and other transactions. It is a standard of relative worth and deferred payment, and as such is a necessary prerequisite for the formulation of commercial agreements that involve debt. To function as a unit of account, money must be divisible into smaller units without loss of value, fungible (one unit or piece must be perceived as equivalent to any other), and a specific weight or size to be verifiably countable.

Store of Value: To act as a store of value, money must be reliably saved, stored, and retrieved. It must be predictably usable as a medium of exchange when it is retrieved. Additionally, the value of money must remain stable over time.

How convenient that the biggest debtor nation(USA) in the history of the world wants to change the definition of money.

18 hours ago, Heart of Space said:

If you want a good store of value go invest your money in something that holds or gains value. 

When money is not a store of value, it encourages speculation into alternative assets such as stocks, bonds, gold, Bitcoin. But what are all these assets priced in? They are all priced in some dollar amount. If your dollars are not a store of value, then how do you know how much your assets are worth? How do you know the true value of these assets if the value is not stored but inflated?   

The economy must find a stable ground onto which all other assets are priced. If the value of money is not stable, the value of all assets is also not stable.

The people who buy Bitcoin believe in this scarce digital assets as a reliable store of value. We will see if this will be the case in a few years. 

[Heart of Space]

4 hours ago, JosephKnecht said:

@Heart of Space

How convenient that the biggest debtor nation(USA) in the history of the world wants to change the definition of money.

When money is not a store of value, it encourages speculation into alternative assets such as stocks, bonds, gold, Bitcoin. But what are all these assets priced in? They are all priced in some dollar amount. If your dollars are not a store of value, then how do you know how much your assets are worth? How do you know the true value of these assets if the value is not stored but inflated?   

The economy must find a stable ground onto which all other assets are priced. If the value of money is not stable, the value of all assets is also not stable.

The people who buy Bitcoin believe in this scarce digital assets as a reliable store of value. We will see if this will be the case in a few years. 

No one is completely changing the definition of money.  The slight inflation only reduces its effectiveness as a store of value over time, it doesn't redefine money.  Nor is the definition important, only the actual function as a tool of your economic system.  

Inflation encourages spending, investing, and using debt as a tool for expansion.  Yes, those aforementioned assets are priced in dollars and value is always relative even if your currency is not inflating.  Gold and Bitcoin fluctuate in value massively in short periods of time, this has nothing to do with inflation, nor does a 2 % yearly inflation rate make it difficult to understand  their value since value is always determined relative to everything else in the economy.  

You seem to think that by not increasing the money supply over time you will create a stable value in your currency.  This is false.  Sure, you could have a currency with a stable quantity, but the value of each dollar would still fluctuate relative to everything else in the economy.  Value is something that only exists relative to other things of value and dollars are no different.  

It will be a store of value like gold as long as it is socially accepted as such, but no longer.  As a currency it would not work, it would be a step back to the stone ages.  Deflationary type currencies are NOT effective for many reasons.  We've already tried them.  

[meow_meow]

I'm shocked that none of you have taken into consideration that PayPal just allowed BTC and ETH payments this month. 
This increases the demand for it. 

I believe that other major online payment systems will have to keep up with PayPal and will allow crypto payments aswell, which will again just increase the demand for it, while BTC itself is limited, unlike other currencies that get printer like toiler papper.

Edited November 14, 2020 by meow_meow

[The0Self]

All I know is bitcoin is likely here to stay. There will probably be blockchain apps that completely replace Uber and Lyft.

[meow_meow]

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“Unregulated crypto assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity.”

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"Cryptocurrencies are a pure gamble with no discernible fundamentals whatsoever"

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“I am not a fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air"

-Donald Trump.

Whitch is surprising because pedophiles in high places (like Epstein) would only be happy to see cryptos going mainstream.
I guess we'll see what Biden has to say...

[JosephKnecht]

On 11/14/2020 at 7:24 PM, Heart of Space said:

Inflation encourages spending, investing, and using debt as a tool for expansion.  Yes, those aforementioned assets are priced in dollars and value is always relative even if your currency is not inflating.  Gold and Bitcoin fluctuate in value massively in short periods of time, this has nothing to do with inflation, nor does a 2 % yearly inflation rate make it difficult to understand  their value since value is always determined relative to everything else in the economy.  

Yes. It encourages spending because people don't want to hold to something(money) that loses value.

If money loses value over time, people will speculate and buy assets that will tend to preserve their value. Bitcoin can be such an asset.

You are correct that the concept of value is subjective. Some people have faith in the politicians/central bankers and value their fiat money. Others don't have much faith in politicians and believe in a cryptographically created digital scarcaty. I guess I fall in the second camp. 

 

[Average Investor]

Here is something interesting to ponder for those looking at BTC. I pulled up the 5 year for google trends search and the 5 year price chart. Bitcoin showing nearly the same price range without hardly the search interest. Just something interesting I thought I would share. 

 

[integral]

@Average Investor Bitcoins current price that big up swing will look like like a small bump when this is over. We are at the beginning of the search result boom. lol maybe. 

[Average Investor]

@integral To me this would indicate that not average retail investors are buying bitcoin. Most people would at least be searching how much their bitcoin is worth if it has been having this kind of price action. You very well could see retail investors following in on this. This is people or groups with a large amount of cash potentially buying up the supply. 

This could be similar behavior with gold during the great depression as well. Take a look what happened with gold during the great depression. Please don't take this as me forecasting that, but this time period has a lot of similarities to that. Assuming you read my notes earlier in the thread about that time frame. 

 

Edit: Woah, look at the volume in the price chart! 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Average Investor

[Claymoree]

40 minutes ago, Average Investor said:

@integral To me this would indicate that not average retail investors are buying bitcoin. Most people would at least be searching how much their bitcoin is worth if it has been having this kind of price action. You very well could see retail investors following in on this. This is people or groups with a large amount of cash potentially buying up the supply. 

This could be similar behavior with gold during the great depression as well. Take a look what happened with gold during the great depression. Please don't take this as me forecasting that, but this time period has a lot of similarities to that. Assuming you read my notes earlier in the thread about that time frame. 

 

Edit: Woah, look at the volume in the price chart! 

gold is something tangible, has had value for centuries and is usable in production, bitcoin is nothing, it has no real value outside of people who use it to speculate with money, if some day , in some miracle way it gets to be as real currency(I know you can use it some places) and have somewhat stable value, it might be worth considering, right now it is just for people who are there to gain from speculating with prices on behalf on people who hope that someday they will be millionaire from buying it now, maybe you will, who knows. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Claymoree

[Average Investor]

@Claymoree Yeah, my claim is a stretch for sure. I noticed after the fact the price momentum started before the pandemic as well. 

I could not really see it being the main currency. However, I could see it being a part of a complex monetary system. I would be interested to see who is buying a lot of this supply and why. 

[Guest SirVladimir]

14 hours ago, Average Investor said:

To me this would indicate that not average retail investors are buying bitcoin. Most people would at least be searching how much their bitcoin is worth.

Of course. Which is exactly the good thing. Most people, in other words, most retail traders, are exactly the dumbfounded herd you don't wanna get mixed in with. Look at the search results for December 2017, when the word 'bitcoin' was at its highest. Interesting correlation when we consider that 90% of traders lose money, huh? That's exactly when the media started shilling, "The mania is here! Amazing returns! Don't miss out! Buy the ecstasy!" When in fact, the mania was almost over. 

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Edit: Woah, look at the volume in the price chart! 

Don't look at CoinMarketCap for volume. It's misleading, for most of it is faked by exchanges.