Brexit

[Alexandru]

What are your thoughts on Brexit guys? How do you personally see it? Is it progress, xenophobia, or just a silly mistake?

Would you be kind enough to express your opinion on this subject as well Leo?

[Opo]

Dumb boomers pulling society back. 

[PurpleTree]

There are positives and negatives to everything. People fear getting ruled by leaders and want more freedom and they fear that their self determination  is in danger  which i can understand.

These fears are valid imo, fears are so easily exploited by populist leaders though, they lied about the NHS numbers etc. and probably about a lot of other things too.

Brexit has more negatives to it ultimately imo because the EU will obviously never be perfect but it's a great project which has contributed a lot to peace in Europe and it would be better if the UK was on board.

On the other hand Brexit can be a wake up call for the EU to become better and more relatable.

Edited October 14, 2020 by PurpleTree

[commie]

The main problem with Brexit these last few years has been that people are treating "Brexit" as a magic word when it's all about the complicated details and not about whether or not the UK is in the EU.

In the long run, freeing the EU from the English is probably worth this mess. I expect it will also force the EU to deal more constructively with nearby third countries.

[Alexandru]

Altough the Brits played an important role in the EU, they didn't want to be ruled by Brussels, they wanted to have their own rules and regulations. I can definitely see some benefits in that, but their decision is just wrong in my opinion.

The way I personally see it is that the UK adopted an overall bad strategy. You can be one big powerful guy, but if other 3 less powerful guys unite their powers, you are therefore less powerful then those united individuals. This is how I see things. Thier collective ego couldn't let them remain within this alliance, thus by wanting everything, soon they'll probably realise how less they have on their own.

[Heart of Space]

Fundamentally, I could understand the frustration of feeling beholden to a more centralized political entity where you disagree with the decisions being made.  You even see these sorts of feelings portrayed in the US when there are vague rumblings of Texas succeeding from the United States.  

That being said I think most of the motivation for sorts of actions are based on fear and xenophobia.  They aren't motivated by good things.  Not that it wouldn't be possible for them to be motivated by altruistic things.  

Edited October 14, 2020 by Heart of Space

[PurpleTree]

28 minutes ago, Heart of Space said:

Fundamentally, I could understand the frustration of feeling beholden to a more centralized political entity where you disagree with the decisions being made.  You even see these sorts of feelings portrayed in the US when there are vague rumblings of Texas succeeding from the United States.  

California too or not?

[Heart of Space]

Just now, PurpleTree said:

California too or not?

The libs tend to just complain and protest, they don't really ever respond with extreme idea's like succession or civil war.  However, the conservatives tend to regularly mention succeeding or civil war every time a democrat is in office.  Even the most milk toast centrist of a democrat is enough to get conservatives talking like this.  

[Willie]

I remember watching the value of the British pound fall off a cliff when that decision was made. But the Euro remained stable. I think that’s a good measure of who is more dependent on whom.

[snowyowl]

We're getting close to the deadline at the end of December and a trade deal is still proving difficult. 

My views on Brexit were pretty close to the referendum result; some good arguments on both sides with a few % in favour of leaving. I felt at the time, and still do, that there will be short to medium term problems with adjusting. but in the long term we (the UK)  will have a better relationship with the EU. Because the EU has been moving slowly towards "ever closer union" (as I think it's constitution says) ie United States of Europe, which has been resisted here by a small majority. When we're properly out, that project can build up steam, the EU can fully integrate, and both sides can carry on negotiating until we finally get over this squabble and have a trading relationship which benefits the capitalist system on both sides. I also believe Joe Biden will have bigger problems to deal with than refuse a treaty and create a trade war with us. 

Oh, and on a lighter note, I’m looking forward to seeing imperial measures again, even if alongside metric, because the drift to metric is so anti-diversity! I'm wasting my time here converting everything back to inches and pounds. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by snowyowl

[Blackhawk]

Stupid mistake.

 

"According to one study, the referendum result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household.[8] Studies published in 2018 estimated that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of GDP,[9][10][11] or 2.5% of GDP.[12] According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by 0.6% and 1.3%.[13] A 2018 analysis by Stanford University and Nottingham University economists estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[14] A number of studies found that Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK's future trade policy reduced British international trade from June 2016 onwards.[15][16][17][18][19] A 2019 analysis found that British firms substantially increased offshoring to the European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas European firms reduced new investments in the UK.[20][21]

There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita.[25] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[25] In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42]

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[43][44][45][46] According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[47] A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country."[48] A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration" found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP).

Following the Brexit referendum, many companies shifted assets, offices, or businesses operations out of Britain and to continental Europe.[51] By the beginning of April 2019, banks had transferred more than US$1 trillion out of Britain, and asset management and insurance companies transferred US$130 billion out of Britain.[51]

A March 2019 report from the independent research institute New Financial identified 269 companies in the banking or financial services sector that had relocated portions of their businesses or staff following Brexit; of these moves, 239 were confirmed as Brexit-related.[52] The greatest number of moves were to Dublin (30%), followed by Luxembourg (18%), Frankfurt (12%), Paris (12%), and Amsterdam (10%).

Research by the 'Centre for European Reform'[clarification needed] suggests the UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if Remain had won the referendum. Public finances fell by £26bn a year. This amounts to £500m a week and is growing. An estimate suggested Britain's economy is 2.1% smaller than it would have been after the first quarter of 2018.[94]

According to economist Paul Krugman, Brexiteers' assertions that leaving the single market and customs union might increase UK exports to the rest of the world are wrong. He considers the costs of Brexit might be around 2 per cent of GDP.[55]

The Institute for Fiscal Studies have said that the majority of forecasts of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy indicated that the government would have less money to spend even if it no longer had to pay into the EU.[54]"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

Edited November 29, 2020 by Blackhawk

[Danioover9000]

@snowyowl

15 hours ago, snowyowl said:

We're getting close to the deadline at the end of December and a trade deal is still proving difficult. 

My views on Brexit were pretty close to the referendum result; some good arguments on both sides with a few % in favour of leaving. I felt at the time, and still do, that there will be short to medium term problems with adjusting. but in the long term we (the UK)  will have a better relationship with the EU. Because the EU has been moving slowly towards "ever closer union" (as I think it's constitution says) ie United States of Europe, which has been resisted here by a small majority. When we're properly out, that project can build up steam, the EU can fully integrate, and both sides can carry on negotiating until we finally get over this squabble and have a trading relationship which benefits the capitalist system on both sides. I also believe Joe Biden will have bigger problems to deal with than refuse a treaty and create a trade war with us. 

Oh, and on a lighter note, I’m looking forward to seeing imperial measures again, even if alongside metric, because the drift to metric is so anti-diversity! I'm wasting my time here converting everything back to inches and pounds. 

   Of course, Covid lockdowns complicates Britain's economic transition period even more than the estimated effect.

   If I'm not mistaken, and if I'm a conservative, what conservatives want here is less immigration traffic coming from the EU, specifically from the middle east, but also from other European countries that're middle to low class taking up more job availability for Britain's own middle to low class people, more control over our economy without increasing the national debts to the EU, and to stop the EU using illegal trawlers on our coastlines, damaging the coral system here that the EU's has already damaged the majority of coral systems on their own waters, then turn around to sell back our own fish in our local coasts making more profit to them than to us. If I'm conservative I would emphasis the potential for economic growth for splitting away with the EU and for freeing up more 9-5 jobs and small businesses for local human sources versus foreign human sources.

[snowyowl]

@Danioover9000 interesting insights. Conservatives are a mixed bunch too, approximately between SD blue and orange. In fact the whole reason we had the 2016 referendum was to deal with the internal battle which was ripping the Conservative party apart. Actually, Brexit could make immigration easier from non EU countries, especially from the Commonwealth. Depends on what policies the govt decides.