Is Trump Going To Win?

[LfcCharlie4]

So, on Facebook several people I'm friends with from the industry I'm in are big Trump fans, it's quite the contrast from here, of course. But, I mean predicting a big Trump win, the kind of Conservative win we saw in the UK last year.

Yet, I see a lot of people on here predicting a Biden win, but on there, I see a lot of people predicting a Trump win. I also hear from a few associates who are heavily into political gambling that they are doubling down on Trump. 

It really confuses me as how can both sides be so sure they're going to win? 

Here's an example of what I mean- 

[Talinn]

Why is it confusing? Both sides have a strong emotional investment in the outcome of this race. They'll apply whatever lens they need to to make themselves feel better.

It's not inherently that bad unless you start fighting in the mud about it with other people, though. 

Also there's so many voices out there going on about blablabla their past records and why you should listen to them instead of the other millions of people on the internet, so it's not hard to imagine that one of these people will present their ideas and then their ideas didn't happen. 

Trump could win, but personally I see it as becoming more and more unlikely. 

[Forestluv]

That is reflective of a hyper-polarized electorate that has normalized their ideology.

In terms of empirical data and formative modeling, Biden has about an 83% chance of winning. And most of Trump's 17% chance is time uncertainty. If the election were held today formative modeling would put him much lower than 17%. 

The current betting markets give Trump a 36% chance of winning. So from a statistical perspective, betting against Trump is the smart money. If I could get an even-odds bet with a Trumper I knew would pay up, I'd jump on it. 

A critical part of a politician's strategy is to portray a winning imagine to their base to keep their morale up. Nobody likes to be a loser and will not participate if they think they will lose. To get people to participate, they need to convince their people their guy can win. This is true in politics, boxing, UFC fighting, sports. . . Imagine Fulham has had an awful year and will be playing a strong Arsenal team.  Not many Fulham fans will show up because they don't want to be associated with a loser. To get Fulham fans to show, the team would need to convince their fans that Fulham has a good shot at winning. 

[Preety_India]

 

Biden might win a landslide 

Trump's antics will cost him 

 

[LfcCharlie4]

@Forestluv Thanks for using A football analogy, you know your target market  

And, I got you, but wasn’t this similar in 2016, didn’t trump have even less chance of winning then? 
 

I guess we shall see come Election Day, if only it was actually a sporting event, sounds like it would make for a great derby day. 

[Forestluv]

2 minutes ago, LfcCharlie4 said:

@Forestluv

And, I got you, but wasn’t this similar in 2016, didn’t trump have even less chance of winning then? 

From the perspective of statistical modeling, 2016 is very different than 2020. Clinton had a smaller lead and it went back and forth. Trump would close in to a tie - and then he would do something stupid and go 5 points down. Then he would close in on a tie. . . The cycle repeated itself over and over. This year, Biden has had a remarkably consistent 7-9% national lead. Trump hasn't even gotten close. 

A couple problems with 2016 was with uneducated white voters and states voting as a cluster - rather than behaving as individual midwest states - the midwest voted as a region. Both of these issues have been corrected in current modeling. 

At the national level, the polls were very accurate. The final poll aggregate predicted about a 1.8% Clinton win and she won by 2.1%. The current poll aggregate is about 8% for Biden. 

Also, much of the electorate in 2016 were "double haters" - of both Trump and Hilary. The vast majority of double haters voted for Trump - likely because he was the anti-establishment candidate. This year, the double haters are polling for Biden. Trump's team is trying to portray Biden as a scary socialist - yet it's not sticking. It was much easy to get people to hate Hilary than Joe.  

[Opo]

1 hour ago, Forestluv said:

So from a statistical perspective, betting against Trump is the smart money. If I could get an even-odds bet with a Trumper I knew would pay up, I'd jump on it. 

Thank you I know a few blind Trumpers I'll try it on.

But even they probably know deep down that they are lying to themselves and won't accept the bet. 

[PurpleTree]

just wait and see

*patience*

[Guest Bazooka Jesus]

2 hours ago, LfcCharlie4 said:

And, I got you, but wasn’t this similar in 2016, didn’t trump have even less chance of winning then?

 

3:41

[Leo Gura]

3 hours ago, LfcCharlie4 said:

 

Lolz

A right-wing fever dream.

These Trumpists should start buying their emotional support animals now, cause they're gonna need them.

[Forestluv]

I think Kyle has a solid frame in the above video. If Biden stays healthy, Trump is toast.

I do find it interesting that since Trump got corona-virus - he has backed away from inflaming “Law and Order” conflict and de-legitimizing the election as fraudulent and rigged. I think this is a good sign in that it increases the chances of a peaceful transfer of power. I have a hard time seeing Trump conceding, so it’s hard to imagine how he would step aside. Perhaps something like “The Dems stole the election with fraudelent ballots. Now I’m going to give MAGA something even better, like you’ve never seen. My own media network that will get better ratings than the failing CNN and MSDNC”.

[Preety_India]

@Forestluv you have a network?

Edited October 7, 2020 by Preety_India

[Forestluv]

1 minute ago, Preety_India said:

@Forestluv you have a network?

No, I was pretending to be Trump. ? 

If Trump loses he may say “The Dems stole the election, yet I’m going to do something even bigger than a presidency with my own media network”.

[Preety_India]

 

9 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

No, I was pretending to be Trump. ? 

If Trump loses he may say “The Dems stole the election, yet I’m going to do something even bigger than a presidency with my own media network”.

 

Hahahahahahahaha