Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

[Preety_India]

5 minutes ago, Anderz said:

@abrakamowse I now found what Trump meant by "tens of millions of ballots" that were sent. Could it be those he mean by votes that "came in late"?

 

He is simply trying to delegitimize legal votes because he knows they mostly favor Biden if they arrive late. 

 

[Anderz]

@abrakamowse But can't unsolicited ballots be misused? Otherwise I can't see what the problem is. @Consept I will give Trump the benefit of the doubt for a while, but if no valid evidence is presented I will support Biden. 

[Preety_India]

Would it be unironic to see that anyone who stands by Trump is always getting in some sort of trouble? 

 

Steve Bannon receives lifetime ban by YouTube and Twitter for encouraging violence against Fauci. 

 

[abrakamowse]

10 minutes ago, Anderz said:

unsolicited ballots be misused?

And what is that?

what are you referring to with "unsolicited" ballots...???

 

there's not such a thing.

Edited November 6, 2020 by abrakamowse

[Anderz]

@abrakamowse Oh! So that's the fraud claim then. The whole Trump administration claims that there are unsolicited ballots, and it's up to them to prove that in court.

[abrakamowse]

12 minutes ago, seeking_brilliance said:

@abrakamowse this all feels like an epically weird dream ?

Am I dreaming?

Lol

[abrakamowse]

1 minute ago, Anderz said:

@abrakamowse Oh! So that's the fraud claim then. The whole Trump administration claims that there are unsolicited ballots, and it's up to them to prove that in court.

So, as I said... they are cheating and making it look "right".

There's nothing "unsolicited"... al ballots are from registered voters. Unless they can prove that there are ballots that are fake from people who died or things like that.. they have nothing.

And even in those cases the votes from that cases wouldn't be enough to "flip" anything... he would need thousands of cases like that...

It's nuts, simply crazy... it won't work, they are grasping at straws.

[Preety_India]

@abrakamowse  one thing I never understood is that how come the whole region in a state appears red meanwhile Biden wins a lead and there are only a few blue spots in the region. That always puzzles me. Shouldn't a lot of places be blue if Biden is leading like in this video. 

 

[Anderz]

2 minutes ago, abrakamowse said:

he would need thousands of cases like that...

It's nuts, simply crazy... it won't work, they are grasping at straws.

Yes, actually it sounds really outrageous. Interesting court case. If they even can take it to court.

[Forestluv]

PA update: According to PA law, an auto recount is triggered if a lead is less than 0.5%. The AP has stated that they will not call PA without clear evidence of a >0.5% lead, and other media networks are following suit. In this context, it seems reasonable not to call PA -  since it is a state-mandated recount. There is no doubt Biden will end with the lead, yet there still is doubt whether it will be >0.5% and for all we know, the AP and others want to see 0.6% as a cushion. . . Recounts generally have changes of hundreds of votes an occassion a few thousand - yet not 10s of thousands. However, it the recount would take 1-2 weeks and empower Trumpers / FoxNews that this isn't over. The propaganda, conspiracies, fraud claims, protests would be full blast if it came down to a PA recount.

GA has already stated there will be a state-mandated recount.

AZ has a state-mandated recount for margins <.01%. The good news for Biden is that AZ does not allow a candidate to request a recount.

So to have the election called soon, without 1-2 weeks of recounts and legal battles - Biden needs NV + AZ with a clear lead over 0.1% in AZ. Or a clear lead over 0.5% in PA. It looks like Biden will have a lead in AZ and is sure to have a lead in PA, yet the question is if the leads will be large enough to prevent state-mandated recounts. 

The Pennsylvania SOS site reports there are 112,796 uncounted mail in ballots. Biden has been winning about 75% VBM. However, PA has not stated if all uncounted mail in ballots are eligible to be counted. As well, MSNBC has reported their are about 100,00 provisional ballots. Those generally break for Dems, yet I don't know if that's an assumption we can make in this election. As well, there are military and overseas ballots. Based on the projected vote total, a 0.05% lead will be about 35k votes. Biden currently has a 14.3k lead, so he needs at least 21k more and an extra 1-2k would be nice as a cushion.

Assuming all the uncounted mail in votes are eligible the math is (112,796 * 0.75) - (112,796 * 0.25) = 56.4k. Plus Biden's current 14.3k lead gives a total lead of 69.7k. That is a 1.0% lead and likely enough to call it on non-provisionals. Yet this assumes all the remaining mail-in ballots are eligible. Even so, Trump wouldn't be mathematically out of a recount if all provisionals were eligible and he won 70% of provisionals / military / overseas.  That would bring him into the auto recount zone. I don't know how much of a cushion Biden needs on non-provisionals for the race to be called. 

As well, Trump had a lawsuit victory in which all mail-in ballots post-marked Nov.3rd or before, yet were received after election day are counted separately and not added to the total. The good news for Biden is that these will likely overwhelmingly favor him (about 3:1). This is why Trump is making such a strong effort to prevent these ballots from being added to the total. Biden could win outright without those ballots, yet as I described above, it's uncertain if Biden's lead will be large enough to ensure there isn't a state-mandated recount. If Trump is successful in blocking the post-marked ballots and it goes to recount - that gives Trumpers opportunity and time to create a chaotic, mess. 

The alternative is that Biden gets NV and AZ (>.01%). If AZ is over, yet close to, .01% I assume Trump will fight in courts to have a recount. This is exactly why Trump wanted his scotus justices. 

The AP and FoxNews already called AZ, which is not yet 100% certain to be outside of recount territory. NV looks like a lock for Biden, yet the AP and FoxNews won't call it due to the AZ uncertainty. And another trick is that NV doesn't have an auto recount rule, yet a candidate can request a recount, which Trump would certainly to try and block Biden from 270. So now the AP and FoxNews have to decide what is reasonably close for a recount. FoxNews likely pulled the plug on the dude who called AZ, so it looks like the AP is the main player here. Since 0.5% is the highest threshold for a state-mandated recount, that could be the APs standard. Currently, Trump's team wants to slow down the release of NV and AZ data as they sow seeds of fraud and doubt about the mail in process. Trump and FoxNews have changed their tone to "we want all legal votes counted. This election put a lot of demands on mail in voting and we just want to see if there were any problems". This has gotten some traction in that they were able to recruit constitutional lawyer Johnathon Turley to take this position. Turley isn't a RWNJ - he is seen as a mainstream moderate. I think Turley went on FoxNews on good faith and wasn't aware of the underlying strategy. 

Biden is clearly in the stronger position, yet timing and margins matter. If Trumpers can delay and block votes to stay within recount zones - it will empower their "this isn't over yet" narrative and I think the Dems are a bit too willing to play the "let's let the process work itself out". If we get into recounts, Trumpers / FoxNews will be greatly empowered, get some narrative control back and things could get messy. Right now, the iron is hot for Biden and he his seen by most as the presumptive winner - yet that can change if there is a state-mandated recount in PA, the AP doesn't call NV for Biden and Trump requests a NV recount (or gets a recount in AZ). 

Wisconsin Republicans encouraged Trumpers in PA to mail in ballots late - perhaps to cause a mess. Right now, Trump is playing defense and the winds are against him - yet that can change. Timing and Biden margins are important. 

[Preety_India]

@Forestluv PA provisional ballots are said to favor Trump.

[abrakamowse]

20 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

@abrakamowse  one thing I never understood is that how come the whole region in a state appears red meanwhile Biden wins a lead and there are only a few blue spots in the region. That always puzzles me. Shouldn't a lot of places be blue if Biden is leading like in this video. 

 

That's because in the rural areas there's no so much population, but if people vote republicans they have to color it as Red.

And in the cities, there's smaller areas but those areas have a lot of democrat votes, they are blue and they are smaller than the rural areas but have more registered voters. That's why the smaller blue cities sometimes can overturn bigger red areas, because there's more voters in smaller areas, more concentration of people in cities that normally vote democrat and can win over big red areas with less republican or conservative population.

Edited November 6, 2020 by abrakamowse

[Preety_India]

@abrakamowse ahh I see now. Thanks for the explanation. 

 

[b_woo]

20 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

@abrakamowse  one thing I never understood is that how come the whole region in a state appears red meanwhile Biden wins a lead and there are only a few blue spots in the region. That always puzzles me. Shouldn't a lot of places be blue if Biden is leading like in this video. 

 

@Preety_India i think its due to population density? Hardly anyone lives in those Red areas at all? They are all packed into the populated Blue areas?

[abrakamowse]

Just now, Preety_India said:

@abrakamowse ahh I see now. Thanks for the explanation. 

 

You are welcome!

[Forestluv]

16 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

@Forestluv PA provisional ballots are said to favor Trump.

That's not what the data suggest. Historically, provisional ballots heavily favor Dems. This election in PA, only a small portion of provisionals have been counted - they moderated favored Trump, yet these we in deep red areas. Since Trump under-performed on these provisional, it suggest they won't help him. 

For example, if Trump wins 80% of a county's non-provisional ballots, yet only 60% of the provisional ballots - he is underperforming on provisionals and which suggests Biden would prevail on provisionals statewide. 

[Preety_India]

@Forestluv actually this guy in the video said that the provisional ballots might favor Trump. I have no idea why. 

He discusses this at 5 minutes mark. 

 

Edited November 6, 2020 by Preety_India

[abrakamowse]

@Forestluv  thanks for your awesome updates. Super helpful and clarifying.

[b_woo]

1 minute ago, abrakamowse said:

@Forestluv  thanks for your awesome updates. Super helpful and clarifying.

100% !!! Learning a lot from this fellas updates. Cheers.

Where abouts are you getting this info btw? 

[Free Mind]

@Forestluv So basically Biden needs to maintain >.01 margin in NV and AZ, and needs to maintain >.05 in Pennsylvania?

Could you expand on the lawsuit on mail-in votes? So mail in ballots that arrive after November 3rd will not be counted? I’m confused about this.

If a recount were to happen in either of these states, how do you think the counting of mail-in ballots would differ and affect the results?