Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) This late trend is a bit worrisome considering Trump out performed the PA polls by 2.6% in 2016. Edited November 3, 2020 by martin_malin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 Fire Trump, hire Fauci INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 @Hardkill true. Most of Europe and more than half the world doesn't want Trump. Too sick of his daily drama and non accountability. INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 2 hours ago, martin_malin said: This late trend is a bit worrisome considering Trump out performed the PA polls by 2.6% in 2016. This is based on Republican-funded polls, such as Trafalgar (who recently got busted for not disclosing that they are republican-funded). The A / A+ rated polls the last week all have Biden up between 5-7pts. It could be that republican-funded polls, like Trafalgar, are right and it's an even race in PA - yet it's not quite fair to call it a "trend". 538 has Biden up 4.7% in PA with very slight tightening. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-polls-swing-states-realclearpolitics-2020-election-b1565007.html Here we go again Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 I heard someone say that Rep Voters don't vote by mail so they are lagging behind giving an appearing of Dems winning, but I have no idea if that's a thing or if it's relevant. How long do you guys think will it take for the announcement to happen? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Forestluv said: This is based on Republican-funded polls, such as Trafalgar (who recently got busted for not disclosing that they are republican-funded). The A / A+ rated polls the last week all have Biden up between 5-7pts. It could be that republican-funded polls, like Trafalgar, are right and it's an even race in PA - yet it's not quite fair to call it a "trend". 538 has Biden up 4.7% in PA with very slight tightening. I knew it! Trafalgar and others likes Rasmussen have been constantly too biased towards Trump, especially Trafalgar. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 A really good point by Kyle here. Not looking good for Trump. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Scholar said: I heard someone say that Rep Voters don't vote by mail so they are lagging behind giving an appearing of Dems winning, but I have no idea if that's a thing or if it's relevant. Repubs are lagging behind most states in terms of party ID of mail in and early votes, yet no actual votes have been counted or released yet. We don't know which votes individual states will release first. The mainstream story is that more Rs will vote election day. So if a state releases mostly EV votes first, it could appear Dems are winning more than they are. If a state released mostly ED votes, it could appear Repubs are winning more than they are. Also watch benchmarks. If Trump is only up 4% in a R+ 8% precinct, that is bad news for Trump. (And vice-versa) 1 hour ago, Scholar said: How long do you guys think will it take for the announcement to happen? It depends on the margin and how the narrative plays out. There isn't an official "announcement". It's not like someone announces who the winner is. Results will gradually be released starting about 8pm EST and people will start analyzing the results as who is winning. Media networks will start calling states for Trump or Biden tonight around 9pm. The obvious states like NY and Alabama will get called fast. The swing states like PA will take longer, depending on margin. The range for swing states would be anywhere from about 2am Nov. 4th to another week or so. The first major indicators will be North Carolina and Florida. They usually get results out quick, perhaps around 9pm or so will be a fair sample size to start making some predictions. 1 hour ago, Hardkill said: I knew it! Trafalgar and others likes Rasmussen have been constantly too biased towards Trump, especially Trafalgar. They are biased relative to the other polling agencies. Yet we don't know who is the most accurate yet. Trafalgar did pretty well in the 2016 election. If they do well in 2020, it would greatly elevate their credibility and methodology. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) Few wise words from Joe Rogan in these times. Edited November 3, 2020 by Opo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) if trump wins ill have to get educated and try to reverse some damage Edited November 3, 2020 by Jacob Morres Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Scholar said: I heard someone say that Rep Voters don't vote by mail so they are lagging behind giving an appearing of Dems winning, but I have no idea if that's a thing or if it's relevant. One expert said that in the past the Democrats got more votes in the early voting, but this year Republican early votes have increased, he said so the situation is more even now. Edited November 3, 2020 by Anderz Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Jacob Morres said: if trump wins ill have to get educated and try to reverse some damage What? ...Hahaha “You don’t have problems; you are the problem.” – Swami Chinmayananda Namaste ? ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/president/ Edited November 4, 2020 by Scholar Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 Florida looks to be for Trump. Miami was a train wreck for Biden. Ohio, North Carolina and Texas look very interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) I'm just waiting for Michigan. Ohio is strong for Biden. Biden won Colorado. Just in. Biden just won Minnesota. Ohio just flipped for Trump Edited November 4, 2020 by Preety_India INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 Hearing that it's looking much better for Trump at the moment than the polls projected, much like last election. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scholar said: Hearing that it's looking much better for Trump at the moment than the polls projected, much like last election. I heard it's because they first count in person votes then mail in votes. So it gives Trump an unrealistic advantage in the beginning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
