Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ This has some pretty cool visuals which predict the election outcomes. Enjoy. Edited November 2, 2020 by Heart of Space Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 For interested in prediction models like 538, keep in mind that a "90% chance for a Biden win" does not necessary mean a conniving win. Some of the data points within the 90% are narrow Biden wins of just a few EVs. Some of the data points are a solid win and some data points are a landslide win. Yet all the data points within Trump's 10% chance are narrow wins. It would be like having a random male basketball player behind door #1 and a random male from the general population behind door #2. There is a 90% chance the basketball player will be taller - anywhere from a little bit taller to much taller. In the 10% chance the regular dude is taller, he would probably just be a little bit taller than the basketball player. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) Guys, I am getting really worried about Pennsylvania again. According to the RCP polling averages, it's looking like Biden's lead over Trump has dropped down from about a 4.9 point lead, about a week and half ago, to about a 2.9 point lead now. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages Biden's lead over Trumps has dropped down from about a 5.8 point lead, about a week and half ago, to about a 4.8 point lead now. What the hell is going on here? Edited November 2, 2020 by Hardkill Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 @Forestluv Yeah. The range of possibilities most likely being anything between republicans slightly winning and democrats winning by a lot Hark ye yet again — the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event — in the living act, the undoubted deed — there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall? To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there's naught beyond. But 'tis enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 42 minutes ago, Hardkill said: Guys, I am getting really worried about Pennsylvania again. According to the RCP polling averages, it's looking like Biden's lead over Trump has dropped down from about a 4.9 point lead, about a week and half ago, to about a 2.9 point lead now. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages Biden's lead over Trumps has dropped down from about a 5.8 point lead, about a week and half ago, to about a 4.8 point lead now. What the hell is going on here? I've been watching it for a while. Those are pretty normal swings. Biden kinda rocketed up after the first debate, he was up almost 11 points over all which is pretty nuts. I think it's only natural for things to swing the opposite way a little. It's still in Biden's favor by a huge margin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, Heart of Space said: It's still in Biden's favor by a huge margin. How? I think it's a tight race. What happens if Trump wins most of the remaining states? INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Preety_India said: How? I think it's a tight race. What happens if Trump wins most of the remaining states? All the evidence we have suggests that Biden has a high chance of winning. It isn't like 2016. Obviously, Trump voters could be underreported and they probably are to some degree. Regardless, I have a lot of confidence that Biden will win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 Trump has an 8 out draw with two cards to come. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 Conscious politics: Biden looks with better chances, but this is not done and anything can happen. Biden is not a great candidate himself, but from a progressive point of view, step one is to beat Trump who is a danger for peace and democracy, step two would be to lobby Biden to put people first before corporations as much as possible. Unconscious politics: I want to see the clown's filthy ass kicked out from the White House. Americans, make it happen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) @Hatfort Trump activates my disgust response. A subset of the personality trait "conscientiousness" is orderliness, and high orderliness correlates to a more sensitive disgust response. I am generally not someone who feels disgust often. But sometimes it happens, depends on mood and etc. What's ironic about me thinking of Trump (and his fascistic tendencies) like a cancer, infection, plague, which needs to be removed is that dehumanising the other with disgust seems to be a key pattern in previous authoritarian regimes. Disgust response ; protect yourself from pathogens. Hitler talked about the Jews in medical terms, like they were a plague. And I see myself thinking the same away about others sometimes, a thing to reflect on. Side note. There's a study which shows authoritarian attitudes in a human population to correlate to precelance of infectious disease. And we're in corona season baby. Xenophobia ---> Don't mix with populations who have infectious diseases you aren't immune to (e. G. Europeans meeting the native Americans, many natives got sick and died) I would like to thank Jordan Peterson for sponsoring this Ted Talk. Edited November 2, 2020 by lmfao Hark ye yet again — the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event — in the living act, the undoubted deed — there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall? To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there's naught beyond. But 'tis enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 On 9/2/2020 at 7:27 PM, louhad said: I think Trump will win for these reasons Lack of enthusiasm for Biden Voter suppression Biden's record on trade will hurt him in many swing states such as Michigan Biden's dementia will surely be a factor in getting people in the middle to go with trump. I think the polls are wrong because many Trump supporters are embarrassed about openly supporting him. Ever heard of Allan Lichtman? I'm going with biden, he's been right so far. Though doth not want these hands! - Jesus Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Hardkill said: According to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages Biden's lead over Trumps has dropped down from about a 5.8 point lead, about a week and half ago, to about a 4.8 point lead now. The recent 538 PA polls have been consistent at 4-7pt. The last three A+ polls have Biden +6, right where he has been. The 538 model went from an 87% Biden chance 10 days ago to an 85% chance today. Essentially the same. There may be other factors about PA to be concerned about, yet not polling. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Forestluv said: The recent 538 PA polls have been consistent at 4-7pt. The last three A+ polls have Biden +6, right where he has been. The 538 model went from an 87% Biden chance 10 days ago to an 85% chance today. Essentially the same. There may be other factors about PA to be concerned about, yet not polling. When do real results start coming in? Edited November 3, 2020 by Claymoree Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, Claymoree said: When do real results start coming in? Tomorrow night about 8pm est. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, lmfao said: A subset of the personality trait "conscientiousness" is orderliness, and high orderliness correlates to a more sensitive disgust response. Intrinsic joy is revealed in the marriage of meaning and being. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 12 hours ago, Leo Gura said: If Trump wins, there will be no video, only a Picard facepalm at the collective stupidity of Americans. If Biden wins, there will be a video, but still also a Picard facepalm at the collective stupidity of Americans. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/1/2020 at 5:08 PM, Leo Gura said: I am thinking of upgrading my prediction to a Blue Wave Biden landslide. It just holistically feels like the correct prediction. Well, now I am really wondering as to what your prediction of a Blue Wave Biden landslide looks like. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 Why is it that Trump has been impeached, lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, now, there is a rise of new voters and early voters and people that changed their minds during the last four years and are not voting for trump anymore.... So far Biden is leading the polls, and has a lead with the 90+millions votes already casted. Republicans tried to tossed out 127,000 already casted votes in Texas and lost (because they were democratic votes, obviously). Trump has been trying to delegitimized the elections for moths (I don’t think is because he believes he’s winning) BUT, after ALL of this, we are supposed to believe that the furious Trump base is waiting until the last minute to vote and all of a sudden WIN the election for Trump.... ???? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Jennjenn said: Why is it that Trump has been impeached, lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, now, there is a rise of new voters and early voters and people that changed their minds during the last four years and are not voting for trump anymore.... So far Biden is leading the polls, and has a lead with the 90+millions votes already casted. Republicans tried to tossed out 127,000 already casted votes in Texas and lost (because they were democratic votes, obviously). Trump has been trying to delegitimized the elections for moths (I don’t think is because he believes he’s winning) BUT, after ALL of this, we are supposed to believe that the furious Trump base is waiting until the last minute to vote and all of a sudden WIN the election for Trump.... ???? I think so many early votes are in just because of Covid, nothing to do with Bidens support , there are no results in yet , only lead Biden has is pools and theory of what so many early votes means. Edited November 3, 2020 by Claymoree Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted November 3, 2020 Okay, this is my final prediction. You can judge me based on this: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXVpL I predict that it will be at least that, or much better for Biden. Overall this should be a Blue Wave for the Dems similar to 2018. Let's see... You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
