Posted October 28, 2020 We need florida so that the country doesnt go to shit in these 4 years. Love life and your Health, INFJ Visionary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Zega said: Michigan is the one I'm keeping an eye on Yeah, it’s a toss-up for sure. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 35 minutes ago, Willie said: Yeah, it’s a toss-up for sure. 35 minutes ago, Willie said: Yeah, it’s a toss-up for sure. It doesn't look a toss-up anymore. Biden is very likely gonna win it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) The riots in Philly are going to swing PA towards Trump. Edited October 28, 2020 by Raze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 apparently trump held a rally in Omaha tonight on the tarmac and there was some sort of disorganization and now several thousand people have been stranded there in the freezing cold while they wait for buses to take them back to their cars 3.5 miles away. 7 people taken to the hospital due to the cold. Spoiler, trump flew off after the speech. real symbolic... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 I really really don't understand US elections I mean I understand them but I don't *understand* them You guys need to move towards a simpler, less arcane counting system ASAP lol “All you need is Love” - John Lennon Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 "Dozens of independent polls all have Biden up big, including pollsters connected to republicans such as Rasmussen and FoxNews." Well @Forestluv here's the 1st poll (October 25) putting Trump ahead 48 to 47 nationally. Whereas the previous week Biden was leading 49-46 (Oct 18). Another week before that it was 50-45 for Biden (Oct 11), and 52-40 for Biden (Oct 4). Is there a trend here, or is it being manipulated in favor of Trump? Here the link to the poll: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1603743206-us-rasmussin-poll-puts-trump-ahead-of-biden-nationally Trump is over Biden in Florida by 49 to 46%, and in Michigan by 49 to 47%. Biden leads in Arizona, another perennial battleground state, by 48 to 46 %. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 Arizona: Morning Consult had Biden over Trump 49-46 (Oct 11) and now Trump over Biden 48-47 (Oct 20). Pennsylvania: Insider Advantage had Biden over Trump 46-43 (Oct 13) and now Trump over Biden 48.5-45.5 (Oct 25). Taking all of that into consideration, this map could be the possible outcome. T 269 to B 269. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 39 minutes ago, Mannyb said: Well @Forestluv here's the 1st poll (October 25) putting Trump ahead 48 to 47 nationally. Whereas the previous week Biden was leading 49-46 (Oct 18). Another week before that it was 50-45 for Biden (Oct 11), and 52-40 for Biden (Oct 4). Is there a trend here, or is it being manipulated in favor of Trump? The polling aggregate is currently 8.5%, which is down 2% from Biden's peak lead of 10.7% on Oct. 17th. That 2% is still background noise. Even if it's a real downward trend that continues, Biden would be at +7% nationally in the aggregate, which would mean a decisive victory for him. Keep in mind that about 50% of the population has already voted (while Biden was polling at +9-11% nationally) Rasmussen is a republican-leaning poll. If I remember correctly, 538 has them around +5R. I haven't looked at the internals of the polls you mentioned. Also, keep in mind that about 50% of the population has already voted. If the Rasmussen poll used a binary likely voter model and didn't weigh in those that already voted - their poll would be highly in favor of Biden. If their numbers are for likely voters that haven't voted yet, it's over for Trump. Trump needs to win states like Fla, MI, AZ by 10%+ to have a chance due to early + mail in vote. And there will be outlier polls, especially during the final week as polls position themselves for their final poll. Both republican and democrat leaning polls may publish outliers as a way to shift the narrative. As well, there is often poll "herding". To increase their credibility, many pollsters will release their final poll to match the polling aggregate (which has the highest chance of being accurate). The pollster wants to set themself up in the future to say "Our final poll was very close to the actual result". Statistician Nate Silver recently discussed how all final polls in the final week should be taken with a grain of salt. I think he said that he reduces the weighting of polls released the final week. 16 minutes ago, Mannyb said: Pennsylvania: Insider Advantage had Biden over Trump 46-43 (Oct 13) and now Trump over Biden 48.5-45.5 (Oct 25). Be careful cherry-picking republican leaning outlier polls. That poll had a small sample size, huge margin of error, uses a binary likely voter model and way outside the polling aggregate - which is Biden +5.6%. Could the Insider Advantage poll be more accurate than the aggregate? Yes, yet it is a low probability. Could Trump pull it off? Sure there is a chance of that. Yet in terms of polling, that chance is about 12% (assuming all votes are counted). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 @Forestluv Well your points make sense although the Trump campaign indicates that the scenario I mentioned is likely, at least to them. Maybe it’s their only hope. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-travel-anticipates-race-potentially-decided-single-electoral-college-vote-n1244706 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) If Trump wins I will view that as an official failure of the american democracy. It will become very difficult to avoid eco-fascistic tendencies in the future if we do not radically change as soon as possible. Meanwhile, China can just decide they are going carbon neutral. No need for elections, no need for hoping that the people vote someone into office who isn't a complete lunatic. And no schizophrenic change in direction with every new election. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54256826 Edited October 28, 2020 by Scholar Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Mannyb said: @Forestluv Well your points make sense although the Trump campaign indicates that the scenario I mentioned is likely, at least to them. Maybe it’s their only hope. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-travel-anticipates-race-potentially-decided-single-electoral-college-vote-n1244706 Me-2 and Ne-2 are both Republican districts. Me-2 is R+6.2% and NE-2 is R+3.9%. Campaigning in those districts is playing defense. Like in sports, campaigns play both offense and defense, yet playing defense isn't a show of strength. It would be like a football team playing defense on their own 20 yard line. I agree with you that going to Me-2 and Ne-2 indicates Trump's team is playing for a close contest in which every EV is needed. Nearly all the forecasts predict the probability of either 1) A Biden landslide, 2) a fairly close Biden win or 3) a razor close Trump win. The probability of a big Trump victory is tiny (based on polling). If all the votes are counted, I'd give Trump about a 1 in 6 chance of winning. That is a decent chance. That would be like rolling a "six" on a six-sided die. It can happen. I think a lot of people think "the polls are predicting a Biden win". It's more accurate to say "The polls give Biden an 87% chance of winning". 18 minutes ago, Scholar said: If Trump wins I will view that as an official failure of the american democracy. It will become very difficult to avoid eco-fascistic tendencies in the future if we do not radically change as soon as possible. If Trump wins a fair election, it means the American populace are not interested in holding him accountable and gives him the green light. That would say a lot about the average conscious level of America right now. In 2016, there was the idea that "Trump is an anti-establishment businessman. He is crude now, yet he will take the job of presidency seriously if elected". That possibility has clearly come to pass. Americans have no excuse this time. They know exactly what they are getting with Trump. And I agree that Trumpism / MAGA is oriented against democracy. I've had too many conversations with MAGAs who argue against democracy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) GOP loves to destroy democracy this is starting to look like the shit Russia does with ballot stuffing during their elections Edited October 28, 2020 by Lyubov Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 7 hours ago, Mannyb said: Arizona: Morning Consult had Biden over Trump 49-46 (Oct 11) and now Trump over Biden 48-47 (Oct 20). Pennsylvania: Insider Advantage had Biden over Trump 46-43 (Oct 13) and now Trump over Biden 48.5-45.5 (Oct 25). Taking all of that into consideration, this map could be the possible outcome. T 269 to B 269. Highly, highly unlikely. I don't see Trump winning that 1 Maine district. Maine is very liberal and they hate Susanne Collins. You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 56 minutes ago, Leo Gura said: Highly, highly unlikely. I don't see Trump winning that 1 Maine district. Maine is very liberal and they hate Susanne Collins. he won it in 2016 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Raze said: he won it in 2016 Times a chagin' You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 12 hours ago, Mannyb said: Arizona: Morning Consult had Biden over Trump 49-46 (Oct 11) and now Trump over Biden 48-47 (Oct 20). Pennsylvania: Insider Advantage had Biden over Trump 46-43 (Oct 13) and now Trump over Biden 48.5-45.5 (Oct 25). Taking all of that into consideration, this map could be the possible outcome. T 269 to B 269. Trump is doing better in WI than MI Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 Here is my guess. It's mostly based on polling data, but I also made some intuitive judgements. We'll see how well it matches up on election day. https://www.270towin.com/maps/g1DW9 Ohio, Iowa and Georgia are the ones I'm really uncertain about. They could all swing either way pretty easily. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Peter-Andre said: Here is my guess. It's mostly based on polling data, but I also made some intuitive judgements. We'll see how well it matches up on election day. https://www.270towin.com/maps/g1DW9 Ohio, Iowa and Georgia are the ones I'm really uncertain about. They could all swing either way pretty easily. I like that call. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 30, 2020 No way is Biden winning Georgia. He'll be lucky to get NC. You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
