Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

[DocWatts]

27 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

I've seen the framing of "America is not a democracy, it is a republic. The states decide elections, not the majority vote". This is true, in a sense, within the Electoral College, Yet this framing can be distorted such that a *state* could give it's electors to Trump, even if the majority of people in the state voted for Biden. 

And because of the conflicts that can occur in the Spirit vs. the Letter of the Law, we see how important Norms and Conventions are to the continued existence of a functioning Democracy.

Laws or a written Constitution aren't going to be enough to save Democracy if enough people are gullible enough to believe that life would be better under an Authoritarian strongman at the head of an ethno-state.

[Lyubov]

7 hours ago, DocWatts said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/23/report-trump-campaign-actively-discussing-radical-measures-to-bypass-election-results/?fbclid=IwAR2kCAb26TOQ7U1uCwkZtvFuShn3imqR61H0lLc2_4h3wHyJKlGCj1mSqTk#5374ea5c4800

From the article:
"A jarring new report from The Atlantic claims that the Trump campaign is discussing potential strategies to circumvent the results of the 2020 election, should Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump, by first alleging the existence of rampant fraud and then asking legislators in battleground states where the Republicans have a legislative majority to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead to choose electors loyal to the GOP and the sitting president"

______________________________________________
This doesn't seem like it should be possible in a modern affluent Democracy, but then again, this is America, and Trump is like a cornered animal who's happy to burn the country down to avoid being held accountable for his actions.

this would officially be the end of the US as a democracy 

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Lyubov said:

this would officially be the end of the US as a democracy 

This is why I wish that Trump was suffering from COVID at least as much as and as long as Prime Minister Boris Johnson did. He absolutely deserves that and more.

[Opo]

28 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

This is why I wish that Trump was suffering from COVID at least as much as and as long as Prime Minister Boris Johnson did. He absolutely deserves that and more.

That would just give an excuse to his supporters. 

I want him defeated while he is running around on horse steroids. 

[Hardkill]

3 hours ago, Opo said:

That would just give an excuse to his supporters. 

I want him defeated while he is running around on horse steroids. 

You mean because if he did suffer a really bout of sickness like Johnson throughout the rest of the month of October and lost the election, then his supporters will then be like "Man, Trump lost because he didn't get the chance to finish campaigning for himself during the last month before the election. If he didn't get sick, then he really would've won! This is totally unfair!" Yeah? lol 

[Willie]

12 hours ago, Girzo said:

Sadly, high voter turnout doesn't protect the people from making the wrong choice. We had presidential elections this summer in Poland with almost record turnout at 68,18% and the conservative candidate won again.

This week the conservative party has applied a request to the Constitutional court, which they have made conservative by exchanging judges at the beginning of their term, and rolled back the right to have ANY kind of abortion! Now you can't even have an abortion when the child is going to die at birth due to birth defects or when it poses a risk to mothers life.

Go people, vote Biden or you are risking worse things than this in your country.

My condolences to Polish women. How long is the Polish presidential term?

[Hardkill]

Btw guys, how likely is it that Kanye West's run for president will affect Biden's chances of winning? 

[DocWatts]

5 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Btw guys, how likely is it that Kanye West's run for president will affect Biden's chances of winning? 

Wait is Kanye running still a thing? Thought for sure that it was a joke that fizzled out a while ago, since I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

In either case I think most of the country is tired of having a hyper-narcissist at the helm, and would be happy to hand the reins to the boring but respectable old man.

Edited October 24, 2020 by DocWatts

[Opo]

9 hours ago, Hardkill said:

You mean because if he did suffer a really bout of sickness like Johnson throughout the rest of the month of October and lost the election, then his supporters will then be like "Man, Trump lost because he didn't get the chance to finish campaigning for himself during the last month before the election. If he didn't get sick, then he really would've won! This is totally unfair!" Yeah? lol 

Yeah. 

If he loses in the landslide it will send the message to Republicans to try something else. 

[PurpleTree]

either way i'll win because i'm also trump and biden as i'm all and all is me  

 

[Hardkill]

So, now how much will voter suppression do you guys think will happen in this election, especially now That ACB as of today will become the new US Supreme Court Justice?

[Forestluv]

Things are getting interesting in Texas. . . As of Sunday, Texas has surpassed 80% of 2016 TOTAL voter turnout. They are on pace for shattering voter turnout records. 

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Forestluv said:

Things are getting interesting in Texas. . . As of Sunday, Texas has surpassed 80% of 2016 TOTAL voter turnout. They are on pace for absolutely shattering voter turnout records. I speculate that Biden would need to win by 3%+ to overcome vote suppression, yet with this turnout I think it could happen. I know, I know it's Texas. . . Yet most of new voter registration are young people and the highest areas of early voting are liberal. Hays county (which includes Austin) is already over 100% of 2016 voting totals - with 9 days left to go. And early voting strongly favors democrats (nationwide).

Texas is looking more and more like a legit toss-up. Democrats usually play conservatively "not to lose" rather than playing to win. If I was the coach play calling, I'd bring Obama and Kamala into Houston for a joint event. 

Yeah, those are all good signs. Btw, there is this American professor of American history, named Allan Litchman, who has successfully predicted all the official winners of presidential elections from 1984 to now, except for 2000 (because the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of Bush over the Florida recount situation, which) and successfully predicted all of the winners of the popular vote of each presidential elections (except for the last election when Hillary won the popular vote). For the 2016 election, he correctly predicted that Trump would win the electoral college and thereby become our current president. The model he has used to predict both the electoral college winners and popular vote winners for each US presidential election is called the 13 keys system.

Now, he predicts that Trump will lose the electoral college because Trump is the primary individual to be blamed for the terrible handling of both the COVID pandemic and the social/political unrest within the entire country. He explains that his exceptional level of self-absorption and the terrible decisions he has made for managing all of the crises that have been going on in the US for several months now have not only caused the entire US economy to tank, but also have caused such terrible divisiveness and rage within our entire country. Hence, believes that Biden will win the White House.

However, professor Litchman says that his predict has a chance of turning to be false if Trump wins by stealing the election through either voter suppression (which is pretty much what happened with the 2000 presidential election) or by the Russian Interference (which arguably had a negative major impact on the last presidential election).

Here's the link for a Livestream vid on Youtube which was done live on October 20 where the interviewer asked Litchman about his prediction model and why he still predicts that Trump will lose, unless too much voter suppression or too much Russian Interference happens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amSxPiP9TEA&t=476s

Here's another vid about the 13 keys model and why it predicts a Biden win:

So, do you think that now all of the solid conservatives justices, including ACB, will overturn all of the voting rights throughout the entire country for all mail-in ballots or early voting? Do you think that the Supreme Court Justices and many of the lower court judges will end up denying or rejecting all of the mail-in ballot votes that were ever made throughout the whole country?

Edited October 26, 2020 by Hardkill

[Forestluv]

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

So, do you think that now all of the solid conservatives justices, including ACB, will overturn all of the voting rights throughout the entire country for all mail-in ballots or early voting? Do you think that the Supreme Court Justices and many of the lower court judges will end up denying or rejecting all of the mail-in ballot votes that were ever made throughout the whole country?

I think the conservative judges have stronger loyalty to conservationist, the federalist society and corporate plutocrats than Trump. Same goes with FoxNews. I would use the analogy of a football team. They have a greater loyalty to the team than any one player. Trump just happens to be the alpha male quarterback right now. Yet if the alpha Trump goes down, they whole team isn't going to go down with him. They will want to survive to live and fight another day. 

It's hard to imagine now, yet there may come a day when conservatives are distancing themself as much as they can from Trump. Especially after Trump dies. In the 2024 republican primary, the candidates may all be pointing fingers at each other "I opposed Trump years before you did. You were a Trump lapdog until 2022!". We are already starting to see this with some republicans like McSally in Arizona - yet they are not yet able to repudiate Trumpism since Trump/MAGA still has control of the party.

Yet if conservative scotus judges think the best bet is to protect Trump, they will do so. If the election comes down to one or two close states, I think they will give it to Trump. Yet if Trump needs to contest 4 states in which Biden is up 2%, that is much tougher. Yet in such a scenario, I think even some at Fox, like Chris Wallace wouldn't go along. If FoxNews is calling states for Biden, that would be a unanamous mainstream media for Biden and I can't see scotus over-ruling that. One of my concerns is that a lot of mainstream media like CNN, MSNBC, PBS, ABC, NYT, WP are slipping back into "both sides-ism" to try to appear non-biased.

It also sucks that Biden needs to win the national vote and swing states by a solid margin to win. It's been like that for a while, yet is getting worse. With biases in the E.C., gerrymandering, Senate biases and voter suppression - Democrats need to win by 3%+ to win an election. That needs to change. A majority of Americans support ditching the E.C. for the popular vote and giving D.C., P.R. statehood. Yet establishment Democrats are so weak - they just can't exercise power boldly when they have the majority. This might be their last chance. If they win the Presidency, House and Senate - they need to immediately abolish the filibuster and push through reform bills. Yet unfortunately, I can't see them doing it. Biden has already talked about creating a nonpartisan "review panel" to consider various reform measures. Well that sucks up a year, we are looking at the 2022 midterms and establishment Dems start playing it safe again. They play "not to lose". A lot of people on the left are sick of it and are only voting for Biden because Trump is so horrific.  

[Hardkill]

21 hours ago, Forestluv said:

I think the conservative judges have stronger loyalty to conservationist, the federalist society and corporate plutocrats than Trump. Same goes with FoxNews. I would use the analogy of a football team. They have a greater loyalty to the team than any one player. Trump just happens to be the alpha male quarterback right now. Yet if the alpha Trump goes down, they whole team isn't going to go down with him. They will want to survive to live and fight another day. 

It's hard to imagine now, yet there may come a day when conservatives are distancing themself as much as they can from Trump. Especially after Trump dies. In the 2024 republican primary, the candidates may all be pointing fingers at each other "I opposed Trump years before you did. You were a Trump lapdog until 2022!". We are already starting to see this with some republicans like McSally in Arizona - yet they are not yet able to repudiate Trumpism since Trump/MAGA still has control of the party.

Yet if conservative scotus judges think the best bet is to protect Trump, they will do so. If the election comes down to one or two close states, I think they will give it to Trump. Yet if Trump needs to contest 4 states in which Biden is up 2%, that is much tougher. Yet in such a scenario, I think even some at Fox, like Chris Wallace wouldn't go along. If FoxNews is calling states for Biden, that would be a unanamous mainstream media for Biden and I can't see scotus over-ruling that. One of my concerns is that a lot of mainstream media like CNN, MSNBC, PBS, ABC, NYT, WP are slipping back into "both sides-ism" to try to appear non-biased.

It also sucks that Biden needs to win the national vote and swing states by a solid margin to win. It's been like that for a while, yet is getting worse. With biases in the E.C., gerrymandering, Senate biases and voter suppression - Democrats need to win by 3%+ to win an election. That needs to change. A majority of Americans support ditching the E.C. for the popular vote and giving D.C., P.R. statehood. Yet establishment Democrats are so weak - they just can't exercise power boldly when they have the majority. This might be their last chance. If they win the Presidency, House and Senate - they need to immediately abolish the filibuster and push through reform bills. Yet unfortunately, I can't see them doing it. Biden has already talked about creating a nonpartisan "review panel" to consider various reform measures. Well that sucks up a year, we are looking at the 2022 midterms and establishment Dems start playing it safe again. They play "not to lose". A lot of people on the left are sick of it and are only voting for Biden because Trump is so horrific.  

If Biden loses because of SCOTUS then I don't know how I am going to deal with its traumatic consequences.

[Hardkill]

Now, how much do you guys think that the possible interference from Russia or Iran in this election will negatively affect Biden's chances of winning?

[DocWatts]

21 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

If Biden loses because of SCOTUS then I don't know how I am going to deal with its traumatic consequences.

Same; like having to unpack the idea that we're no longer living in a democracy if that turns out to be the case.

[Lyubov]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:29 PM, Forestluv said:

Things are getting interesting in Texas. . . As of Sunday, Texas has surpassed 80% of 2016 TOTAL voter turnout. They are on pace for shattering voter turnout records. 

I'll cry if texas goes to biden in a landslide.

[Forestluv]

The 538 model just shifted Georgia and Iowa to Biden's column. 

Biden just needs to win 2 of 8 swing states decisively. Trump needs to win all 8 swing states. If Biden has less than a 1% lead in all 8 swing states, I can see Trump rallying republicans, FoxNews and judges that all the states are essentially "tied". Yet if Trump needs to win 3-4 states he is down 1%+ and his deficit is growing with more vote counting - that is a hard sell to 75% of the American public. Only the die hard Trumpers would go with it.

This of course assumes somewhat fair counting of all ballots. Even a fair election has some error and background noise - perhaps 0.2%. To the best of my knowledge, leads over 0.2% are rarely reversed, yet leads under 0.2% have a decent chance. 

Yet Trumpers know they are way behind on early / mail in votes and that they have a lead in election day in-person voting. So they want to suppress the counting of early & mail in votes - and have the initial numbers released be election day in person. Trump then goes on offense by declaring victory (with about 40% of the votes counted) and rally republicans / FoxNews. As early votes / mail in ballots are counted, Trump's lead will vanish - yet he will start claiming that he already won - it's mail in fraud and Dems are stealing the election. Then he pressures judges to stop the vote counting. This is Trump's offensive style and MAGA will 100% fall for it. As well, Dems are notorious for playing defense, rather than offense. I can see Dems allowing Trump to frame it and then saying "Wait, wait the election isn't over yet. Trump hasn't won yet. Biden could come back with mail in ballots!". Dems absolutely suck at framing and narrative control. In this area, I hope conservative never-Trumpers, like the Lincoln Project, enter. They are the only Biden supporters willing to play Republican-style hardball. 

There are a couple swing states allowing early counting of early & mail in votes (Florida and North Carolina I think). If the early reports from Florida and North Carolina have Biden up big, due to early & mail votes, it will be much harder for Trump to claim early victory. Biden is crushing Trump in early / mail votes - if Trump is down 8% early on in Florida and N.C. there is no way he can claim early victory. This is why Trump / GOP are obsessed with preventing early counts of early / mail votes. 

And I think FoxNews will have more influence than they ever have. In particular, they have immense power in being the Biden King-Maker. Of course FoxNews will be the last to call a swing state for Biden, yet if they do it's all over for Trump. If FoxNews calls Pennsylvania or Florida for Biden - Trump is done. 

23 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

I'll cry if texas goes to biden in a landslide.

No way Texas goes blue in a landslide. Yet based on early vote turnout, I think it has a legit shot at overcoming voter suppression and going blue. 

Biden just needs decisive victories in a couple swing states. For Trump to win (or steal) a lot of variables need to align right. 

[Leo Gura]

No way is Texas going Blue. Liberal pipe dream.

Okay! Final prediction time!!! Post your final electoral college maps now. So we can see who was a fool on election night