Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

[Lyubov]

 

uh?

[Hardkill]

38 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

 

uh?

Lmao. This is totally comical. 

[Hardkill]

On 10/19/2020 at 4:41 PM, Forestluv said:

I do respect a prognosticator that comes out early as Stantic did. That is much riskier than waiting to late October. Yet is month-old prediction is already wrong:

"“It is maybe early, but I can tell you that the trend we identified in advance last time is holding.”

It's not holding. Biden's lead has significantly increased by 3% in the polling aggregate since Stantic released his prediction.

Stantic's decisive state is Minnesota for Trump?! Really? Trump gave up on Minnesota months ago and Biden is up 9.1% in the polling aggregate. It isn't a swing state and even Trump's team has conceded it. Flipping Minnesota alone would flip Stantic's model to a Biden victory. 

 

Yeah, you make a valid point.

Though, what about Stantic saying that his lab’s analysis has a significantly larger sample size than any of the opinion polls?

[Forestluv]

@Hardkill Sample size is just one factor. If the underlying methodology is limited or flawed, sample size doesn't matter much. Suppose we want to gain insight into the mechanics of Climate Change. We examine 23,534 climate change studies conducted in the U.S. with over 1 million data points. That is an enormous sample size, with some valuable data. Yet extrapolating that data to forecast global climate change would introduce noise and would not be as accurate as a smaller sample size that including global studies.

As well, it is comparing apples to oranges. He is using data about primaries, not polling data. 

And I haven't seen him release his methodology. If he is making claims that he has a statistical model based on an enormous sample size of data - then I'd like to see the methodology and data. And I'd be curious about expert statisticians peer-reviewing his work. 

In regards to whites claiming "Blacks love Trump". . . I've noticed a lot of white Trumpers tokenizing blacks. Imo, to reduce the cognitive dissonance of their racism. It's similar to a Trumper getting called out on Twitter for saying racially insenstive things and then posting up photos of them with black people to prove that they aren't racist. People that are non-racist don't behave like that. They don't feel the need to prove to the world how non-racist they are. 

Imagine someone being told "Dude, some of your language seems sympathetic to pedophiles" - and the person responds by posting photos of him spaced 6 feet from children to prove how un-pedophile he is. That would be odd behavior. Non-pedophiles don't act like that. 

[Hardkill]

4 hours ago, Forestluv said:

@Hardkill Sample size is just one factor. If the underlying methodology is limited or flawed, sample size doesn't matter much. Suppose we want to gain insight into the mechanics of Climate Change. We examine 23,534 climate change studies conducted in the U.S. with over 1 million data points. That is an enormous sample size, with some valuable data. Yet extrapolating that data to forecast global climate change would introduce noise and would not be as accurate as a smaller sample size that including global studies.

As well, it is comparing apples to oranges. He is using data about primaries, not polling data. 

And I haven't seen him release his methodology. If he is making claims that he has a statistical model based on an enormous sample size of data - then I'd like to see the methodology and data. And I'd be curious about expert statisticians peer-reviewing his work. 

In regards to whites claiming "Blacks love Trump". . . I've noticed a lot of white Trumpers tokenizing blacks. Imo, to reduce the cognitive dissonance of their racism. It's similar to a Trumper getting called out on Twitter for saying racially insenstive things and then posting up photos of them with black people to prove that they aren't racist. People that are non-racist don't behave like that. They don't feel the need to prove to the world how non-racist they are. 

Imagine someone being told "Dude, some of your language seems sympathetic to pedophiles" - and the person responds by posting photos of him spaced 6 feet from children to prove how un-pedophile he is. That would be odd behavior. Non-pedophiles don't act like that. 

I see. So, a very large sample may not matter much if it isn't relevant enough to what you're trying to forecast. You're also saying that it doesn't sound like his methodology has been peer-reviewed well enough. Correct?

 

Btw, in relation to blacks for Trump, it seems that Trump has been gaining more support from blacks than he did for the 2016 election. It's the same thing that going on with the increase in Latino support that Trump has gotten compared to the last election. This why I am actually concerned that Biden hasn't been getting as much support from both African-Americans and Latinos nationwide, especially amongst young or younger African-Americans and Latinos nationwide. 

Edited October 21, 2020 by Hardkill

[Forestluv]

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

I see. So, a very large sample may not matter much if it isn't relevant enough to what you're trying to forecast. You're also saying that it doesn't sound like his methodology has been peer-reviewed well enough. Correct?

Yea

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Btw, in relation to blacks for Trump, it seems that Trump has been gaining more support from blacks than he did for the 2016 election. It's the same thing that going on with the increase in Latino support that Trump has gotten compared to the last election. This why I am actually concerned that Biden hasn't been getting as much support from both African-Americans and Latinos nationwide, especially amongst young or younger African-Americans and Latinos nationwide. 

Trump's small gains with black and latino voters seems to be insignificant in light of his massive losses in female suburban voters and white voters. Gaining 1 million black and latino votes doesn't really matter if he loses 10 million female and white votes. 

[DocWatts]

6 hours ago, Forestluv said:

In regards to whites claiming "Blacks love Trump". . . I've noticed a lot of white Trumpers tokenizing blacks. Imo, to reduce the cognitive dissonance of their racism. It's similar to a Trumper getting called out on Twitter for saying racially insenstive things and then posting up photos of them with black people to prove that they aren't racist. People that are non-racist don't behave like that. They don't feel the need to prove to the world how non-racist they are. 

Having flashbacks of the Colbert Report, where the character he was playing goes on a quest to find a black friend to prove to the world how non-racist he was.
 

[Hardkill]

5 hours ago, Forestluv said:

Yea

Trump's small gains with black and latino voters seems to be insignificant in light of his massive losses in female suburban voters and white voters. Gaining 1 million black and latino votes doesn't really matter if he loses 10 million female and white votes. 

Oh yeah, I see what you mean. Actually, I think that's what both the TYT and The Hill/Rising political analysts, pundits, and commentators were saying regarding Trump's tremendous losses in both female suburban voters and white voters. 

[Lyubov]

On 10/21/2020 at 2:14 AM, Hardkill said:

Lmao. This is totally comical. 

 

they held a "black voices for trump" rally recently in Florida and I'm not sure any black people even showed up 

Edited October 22, 2020 by Lyubov

[DocWatts]

6 hours ago, Lyubov said:

 

they held a "black voices for trump" rally recently in Florida and I'm not sure any black people even showed up 

I know the world is insane right now and Trump supporters are some of the most ignorant people on the planet, but I'm still having a hard time believing this isn't coming from a satirical news source like The Onion. 

[Peter-Andre]

53 minutes ago, DocWatts said:

I know the world is insane right now and Trump supporters are some of the most ignorant people on the planet, but I'm still having a hard time believing this isn't coming from a satirical news source like The Onion. 

@DocWatts To be fair, it may very well be the case that a lot of black people showed up to the event, but that the pictures with only white people were the only ones shared here. It's easy to take a few isolated photos and give off the wrong impression.

But I'm being very charitable here. These are Trump supporters we're talking about, so it wouldn't shock me if most of the people attending these events were indeed white. I'd like to see some statistics on this if they exist.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Peter-Andre

[Lyubov]

7 hours ago, Peter-Andre said:

@DocWatts To be fair, it may very well be the case that a lot of black people showed up to the event, but that the pictures with only white people were the only ones shared here. It's easy to take a few isolated photos and give off the wrong impression.

But I'm being very charitable here. These are Trump supporters we're talking about, so it wouldn't shock me if most of the people attending these events were indeed white. I'd like to see some statistics on this if they exist.

I believe for this particular even there were very few black people. it was held in a very white rural florida county. there are some black voices for trump events in michigan that had some black people turn up.

[Hatfort]

I see some kind of trend online about the importance of taking Trump away from office above other considerations like Biden being a good candidate himself. Will that translate to votes on November 3rd? I'll believe it when I see it.

Black voices for Trump, not a single black. lol

Edited October 22, 2020 by Hatfort

[Finax]

Obama campaigns in Philadelphia, his speech was very motivating for me, even lifted my depression.

I loved it when he says a president must put in the WORK!

[Hardkill]

9 hours ago, Finax said:

Obama campaigns in Philadelphia, his speech was very motivating for me, even lifted my depression.

I loved it when he says a president must put in the WORK!

This speech was truly inspirational. I really miss him as our active president. I think that this speech had to significantly help Biden in some way.

[Hardkill]

Btw, do any of you guys think that voter turnout is going to be greater or lesser than it was in 2016? Will there be a lot more people who want to vote this year for both the presidential and congressional elections compared to the amount who actually voted in 2016?

Edited October 23, 2020 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

Voter turnout will be YUGE!

[DocWatts]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/23/report-trump-campaign-actively-discussing-radical-measures-to-bypass-election-results/?fbclid=IwAR2kCAb26TOQ7U1uCwkZtvFuShn3imqR61H0lLc2_4h3wHyJKlGCj1mSqTk#5374ea5c4800

From the article:
"A jarring new report from The Atlantic claims that the Trump campaign is discussing potential strategies to circumvent the results of the 2020 election, should Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump, by first alleging the existence of rampant fraud and then asking legislators in battleground states where the Republicans have a legislative majority to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead to choose electors loyal to the GOP and the sitting president"

______________________________________________
This doesn't seem like it should be possible in a modern affluent Democracy, but then again, this is America, and Trump is like a cornered animal who's happy to burn the country down to avoid being held accountable for his actions.

[Girzo]

4 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Btw, do any of you guys think that voter turnout is going to be greater or lesser than it was in 2016?

Sadly, high voter turnout doesn't protect the people from making the wrong choice. We had presidential elections this summer in Poland with almost record turnout at 68,18% and the conservative candidate won again.

This week the conservative party has applied a request to the Constitutional court, which they have made conservative by exchanging judges at the beginning of their term, and rolled back the right to have ANY kind of abortion! Now you can't even have an abortion when the child is going to die at birth due to birth defects or when it poses a risk to mothers life.

Go people, vote Biden or you are risking worse things than this in your country.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Girzo

[Forestluv]

2 hours ago, DocWatts said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/23/report-trump-campaign-actively-discussing-radical-measures-to-bypass-election-results/?fbclid=IwAR2kCAb26TOQ7U1uCwkZtvFuShn3imqR61H0lLc2_4h3wHyJKlGCj1mSqTk#5374ea5c4800

From the article:
"A jarring new report from The Atlantic claims that the Trump campaign is discussing potential strategies to circumvent the results of the 2020 election, should Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump, by first alleging the existence of rampant fraud and then asking legislators in battleground states where the Republicans have a legislative majority to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead to choose electors loyal to the GOP and the sitting president"

______________________________________________
This doesn't seem like it should be possible in a modern affluent Democracy, but then again, this is America, and Trump is like a cornered animal who's happy to burn the country down to avoid being held accountable for his actions.

I've seen the framing of "America is not a democracy, it is a republic. The states decide elections, not the majority vote". This is true, in a sense, within the Electoral College, Yet this framing can be distorted such that a *state* could give it's electors to Trump, even if the majority of people in the state voted for Biden.