Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

[DocWatts]

17 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

@Hardkill I agree with Cenk.

I'm calling a Biden landslide.

See ya back here on Nov 3.

While a Biden landslide is looking more and more likely, if the election does end up being close, it's entirely likely we may have a repeat of the 2000 election and not have an unambiguous winner by the time the polls close Nov 3.

[Forestluv]

1 hour ago, Mannyb said:

1. Can we really trust polls after 2016?

The 2016 and 2020 dynamics are totally different. Trump and Clinton went back and forth with poll leads and on Election Day, the polls were very close on Clinton’s margin of victory in the popular vote. Within tenths of a percent. The main issue in 2016 polls was uneducated white voters and that has been corrected for in 2020.

Biden’s lead is much larger than Clinton’s. Biden has the largest and most consistent lead in the modern history of presidential elections. Trump has never once even gotten close to Biden. If Trump wins, it would most likely be due to massive voter suppression and ballot tampering. If Trump wins fair and square, it would be by far the most inaccurate polls in the history of the U.S. This would indicate that polling is is fundamentally inaccurate or that there was a conspiracy in the polling industry to take down Trump.

1 hour ago, Mannyb said:

2. Could these polls be made to show Biden as favorite to get people to vote for him? 

This is highly unlikely. Dozens of independent polls all have Biden up big, including pollsters connected to republicans such as Rasmussen and FoxNews. These polling firms are all competing with each other to be the most accurate, best polling firm. They have an incentive to be accurate - to survive. It’s highly unlikely that all these independent polling firms are fabricating bullshit data to take down Trump - especially republican oriented firms that want Trump to win. That would go into conspiracy theory territory. 

As well, the polls show Biden up big, yet that does not mean the polls say Trump can’t win. The polls give Trump about an 11% chance of winning. That is a decent chance of winning. 
 

1 hour ago, Mannyb said:

3. If Biden is to win by a landslide, why are his rallies so empty? (as opposed to Trumps’, Pences’, Bernies’, and even Hillarys’ in 2016)

There is no energy to vote for Biden - there is massive energy to vote against Trump. I wouldn’t walk across the street to vote for Biden, yet I’d walk across broken glass to vote against Trump.

1 hour ago, Mannyb said:

 4. Remember Trump won’t give in easily, he’s got something planned

Trump won’t give in easily - yet Trump doesn’t prepare or plan. He makes things up as he goes along.

[Leo Gura]

30 minutes ago, DocWatts said:

While a Biden landslide is looking more and more likely, if the election does end up being close, it's entirely likely we may have a repeat of the 2000 election and not have an unambiguous winner by the time the polls close Nov 3.

Certainly possible.

[Forestluv]

Keep in mind that predictive modeling is not binary. It is possibilities. Currently the polls do NOT predict Biden will win. They now predict he has about a 90% chance of winning. This is what a 91% chance looks like. There are still Trump win scenarios in the predictive models.

Imagine throwing a dart at this board. Would you be 100% confident in hitting a blue square?

 

[Mannyb]

@Forestluv 1. Maybe Biden’s been given this unprecedented lead out of desperation, knowing he’s a substantially weaker candidate than even Hillary was, and perhaps to make sure 2016 doesn’t happen again. 

2. Trump hasn’t been that popular among the more pro establishment republicans institutions, he had to debate the moderator from Fox News Chris Wallace after all. 
3. Still, if so many are against trump why not go show support to the only person that has a chance to defeat him?

4. How do you know Trump doesn’t plan? Or at least has a team that plans things behind the scenes (maybe lead by Mike Pence & others)

[Forestluv]

4 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Forestluv 1. Maybe Biden’s been given this unprecedented lead out of desperation, knowing he’s a substantially weaker candidate than even Hillary was, and perhaps to make sure 2016 doesn’t happen again. 

Given this lead by who? Dozens of independent polling agencies all have Biden up big. You think all polling agencies are in a conspiracy against Trump? That’s a stretch imo.

8 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Forestluv 4. How do you know Trump doesn’t plan? 

Have you been watching Trump? He has been promising a health care plan “in two weeks” for 4 years! He himself has said he doesn’t plan and likes to play it by instinct in the moment. 

[Mannyb]

@Forestluv Imo anything coming from mainstream institutions is increasingly harder to trust. Trump's tax cuts weren’t purely instinctive.
 

And even if Biden wins, the transition won’t be a walk in the park.

I’m just saying that conservatives are not gonna remain silent while folks like Biden, Harris, AOC, Pelosi, Booker, get more powerful and make the us more socialist.

Stage blue will fight stage green in other words.

[Hardkill]

4 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Forestluv Imo anything coming from mainstream institutions is increasingly harder to trust. Trump's tax cuts weren’t purely instinctive.
 

And even if Biden wins, the transition won’t be a walk in the park.

I’m just saying that conservatives are not gonna remain silent while folks like Biden, Harris, AOC, Pelosi, Booker, get more powerful and make the us more socialist.

Stage blue will fight stage green in other words.

Here we go again. The usual line you right-wing conservatives say which is "he/she is a socialist." Most people don't even believe that Biden is a socialist.

[Willie]

Chances are high that results on November 3rd will be contested. What happened with Florida in 2000 could happen in a buuuuuuunch of different states. People keep waiting for November 4th to come so they can relax. November 4th might just add to the tension, but I hope to be proved wrong.

[Forestluv]

9 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Forestluv Imo anything coming from mainstream institutions is increasingly harder to trust. Trump's tax cuts weren’t purely instinctive.

I’m referring to Trump, not the GOP. I doubt Trump was not involved with the complexities and nuances of tax proposal planning.
 

11 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

 

I’m just saying that conservatives are not gonna remain silent while folks like Biden, Harris, AOC, Pelosi, Booker, get more powerful and make the us more socialist.

Of course conservatives won’t like it and they are very good at fighting back.

Biden isn’t a socialist, he much more oriented toward capitalism. AOC is a democratic socialist and very far from Biden on the political spectrum. In Canada or European countries, AOC and Biden would be in two different parties.

 

[Forestluv]

10 minutes ago, Willie said:

Chances are high that results on November 3rd will be contested. What happened with Florida in 2000 could happen in a buuuuuuunch of different states. People keep waiting for November 4th to come so they can relax. November 4th might just add to the tension, but I hope to be proved wrong.

Needing to flip a one close state with a recount is a very different dynamic than needing to flip multiple close states. Al Gore refused to concede because he just needed Florida to win. Imagine Hilary refusing to concede because she wants to contest Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan AND Wisconsin ftw. Trump may try it, yet it’s very different than only needing to flip one state. That’s likely why he is trying to establish a narrative of widespread mail in fraud. He could say that there was mail in fraud in all five states he needs to flip, yet its still a stretch. 

[Mannyb]

@Hardkill I’m just being an objective observer of what’s going on in the us. I’m not a right wing conservative (I’m not a leftist either) Btw. 

[Hardkill]

3 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Hardkill I’m just being an objective observer of what’s going on in the us. I’m not a right wing conservative (I’m not a leftist either) Btw. 

Then, have u been observer RVATs, Lincoln Project, and so many out there who totally regretted voting for Trump?

[Mannyb]

@Forestluv And I was referring to the people close to / behind Trump (Like part of the GOP], I agree Trump probably doesn’t get involved with the details.

The thing is that it’s not trump the left will have to fight but something bigger than him in the future. 

Biden doesn’t seem very capitalistic, he’s pro establishment / big government / crony capitalism ( which is more against real free markets).

Biden is an opportunist and will change his views to get more power / money.
AOC is an ideological socialist, not much of an intellectual 1.  

In Canada they would both be in the Liberal party with Trudeau, and in Europe they would both be with Macron in France, labor party in the UK, Socialist party in Spain and so forth. 

[Sempiternity]

2 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

AOC is an ideological socialist, not much of an intellectual 1.  

That's a bold statement. She's about as smart as they come. See anyone go up against her, and she owns them. 

[Mannyb]

@Hardkill I have and that just doesn’t compare to the rallies, blacks for trump, women for trump, Latinos, the demonstration in Florida... If they regret it so much they should try at least to be Louder, to get themselves noticed, go to Biden rallies or town hall and express their views. And with the treatment trump gets from the media and Biden / Harris’ poor records in office, I would also not discount shy voters.

[Forestluv]

19 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Forestluv 
AOC is an ideological socialist, not much of an intellectual 1.  

In Canada they would both be in the Liberal party with Trudeau, and in Europe they would both be with Macron in France, labor party in the UK, Socialist party in Spain and so forth. 

Have you watched extended interviews and court hearings of AOC? She has an intellect. She is sharp.

Biden and AOC are very far apart. They would be in different parties in countries with multi-party systems. For example, AOC is much closer aligned to the NDP in Canada. She is would be in the same NDP as Singh. Biden would be more aligned with Trudeau, although Biden is still further right. A recent poll showed a strong majority of those in the canadien Conservative party would choose Biden over Trump. So Biden is a 1.5 parties away from AOC in Canada. 
 

In terms of SD, AOC is solid Green and Biden is Orange (with some sympathy for Green). AOC even refuses to endorse Biden. 

[Mannyb]

@Jed Vassallo AOC Smart? I don't think I have to answer that one. But let’s do it anyway. 
1. She thought there were three chambers of government 

2. She thought the Pentagon misappropriated $21 trillion dollars but the fact is, the Pentagon has never received that amount of money.

3. Ben Shapiro offered to debate or sit and talk with her (clearly knowing he would embarrass her) and she responded by saying she doesn’t respond to people who try and catcall her. ( I’m not a Shapiro fan at all, but cmon man, go and “own him” if you actually can).

4. She thought there were 500 million people in the United States, stating that 200 million make up 40% of the total population in the us.

[Mannyb]

@Forestluv Lets not try to imagine in which party they’d be and look at reality for a second.

AOC and Biden like Trudeau, Trump doesn’t. Same with Macron, same with the socialist vs conservative divide in Spain and in the UK. 
 

it’s pretty obvious also in my country Austria, like anywhere in the world, there are two sides right now, socialists friends of the EU on one side & nationalists friends of Trump on the other. 

[Heart of Space]

9 minutes ago, Mannyb said:

@Jed Vassallo AOC Smart? I don't think I have to answer that one. But let’s do it anyway. 
1. She thought there were three chambers of government 

2. She thought the Pentagon misappropriated $21 trillion dollars but the fact is, the Pentagon has never received that amount of money.

3. Ben Shapiro offered to debate or sit and talk with her (clearly knowing he would embarrass her) and she responded by saying she doesn’t respond to people who try and catcall her. ( I’m not a Shapiro fan at all, but cmon man, go and “own him” if you actually can).

4. She thought there were 500 million people in the United States, stating that 200 million make up 40% of the total population in the us.

So you listed a couple of accidental gaffs, which happens when you speak for a living.  And the fact that she wouldn't debate the most overrated political hack in the world Ben Shapiro?  Come on, dude, give the girl a break.  I don't even think she's 30 yet.