Posted October 2, 2020 Sooooo trump caught COVID https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/02/trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-melania-announcement-vpx.cnn I mean I know you typically have to quarantine for 14 days but if the next debate ends up being on Zoom, muting him when he interrupts is most definitely an option I have faith in the person I am becoming https://www.theupwardspiral.blog/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 Be cautious about putting Ohio in the Trump column. Early voting started today in Ohio and there are reports in urban areas throughout the state of mile-long lines and people waiting 2+ hours to vote. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 At this point I am predicting a Biden landside. You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Leo Gura said: At this point I am predicting a Biden landside. I want to predict that too; however, why is Biden currently not doing as well with the battleground state polls four weeks out as Hillary did 4 weeks out? https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Joe-Biden-poll-after-debate-Trump-2016-comparison-15622316.php Also, why is Trump's approval continually going up bit by bit? Is that just because he and his campaign team have been riling up the enthusiasm of his base? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hardkill said: I want to predict that too; however, why is Biden currently not doing as well with the battleground state polls four weeks out as Hillary did 4 weeks out? https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Joe-Biden-poll-after-debate-Trump-2016-comparison-15622316.php Also, why is Trump's approval continually going up bit by bit? Is that just because he and his campaign team have been riling up the enthusiasm of his base? Biden is doing MUCH better than Hilary in the polls. Hilary and Trump went back and forth in the polls. Biden has had the largest, most consistent lead in the modern history of presidential polling. Trump is not improving in the polls. He is slowly falling. The latest national polls have Trump down 14 and 16 points. That is landslide territory. Of course, Trump could win, yet the forecast is only about a 17% chance. And most of that chance is due to uncertainty over the next few weeks. If the election was today, it would be more like an 8% chance. The closer contest is who takes control of the Senate. A 6% Biden win might be a 50-50 Senate. A 12% Biden win could be a 55-45 Dem senate. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, Forestluv said: Of course, Trump could win, yet the forecast is only about a 17% chance. And most of that chance is due to uncertainty over the next few weeks. If the election was today, it would be more like an 8% chance. @Forestluv I don't doubt what you're saying, but where did you get that 8% figure? I would like to know so I could keep checking how it changes over the coming days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 @Hardkill Click and read the whole twitter thread. He explains the how 2016 is nothing like 2020 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 Fundamentally I just refuse to believe that a majority of people like what has been happening over the last 4 years. I think most people understand it was shitty and the wrong direction and Trump is to blame. I trust that more than any individual poll. You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Peter-Andre said: @Forestluv I don't doubt what you're saying, but where did you get that 8% figure? I would like to know so I could keep checking how it changes over the coming days. It was an estimate. I read a 538 article a few weeks ago when Trump had about a 25% chance of winning. The article made clear that most of that chance was uncertainty in time - something could happen to change the dynamic. Similar to buying options in the stock market - they degrade in value over time. The statisticians gave an estimate of what the chance would be today. I remember it was about half as much, so I just estimated. Perhaps 538 is now giving that prediction. As we get closer to the election, the uncertainty due to time will decrease, since there is less time and the "election today" vs "election day" odds will get closer and closer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Leo Gura said: Fundamentally I just refuse to believe that a majority of people like what has been happening over the last 4 years. I think most people understand it was shitty and the wrong direction and Trump is to blame. I trust that more than any individual poll. That's similar to the "eye test" in college football playoff rankings. Even if the computer algorithm ranks Baylor slightly higher than Alabama, the eye test clearly shows Alabama is the better team and would crush Baylor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 7, 2020 538 currently has trump winning 17/100 of their simulations with biden winning the rest. really hope it stays like this until the election. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 this clown is still undecided Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 30 minutes ago, Lyubov said: this clown is still undecided OMG, not this again. You are God. You are Truth. You are Love. You are Infinity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 On 10/1/2020 at 8:33 PM, Leo Gura said: Breaking news: 'Texas governor limits blacks to one vote per county. Calls Democrats racist for making it all about race.' Not sure whether to laugh or cry for how true this is... I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) @DocWatts your country needs to do away with all the stagnant orthodox ways of voting with all the gerrymandering and electoral farmer college and these improperly distributed ballots and even how they throw out ballots or make ballot decisions Trump threw out like what, 100,000 ballots? I feel like something fishy is going on Edited October 8, 2020 by Preety_India INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Preety_India said: @DocWatts your country needs to do away with all the stagnant orthodox ways of voting with all the gerrymandering and electoral farmer college and these improperly distributed ballots and even how they throw out ballots or make ballot decisions Trump threw out like what, 100,000 ballots? I feel like something fishy is going on The Republican Party literally needs this to win elections, as their voting base is shrinking due to societal and demographic changes (appealing primarily to wealthy people but more importantly to whites who harbor racial resentment), and are going to do everything in thier power to block reforms to make the system more fair and democratic. I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) @DocWatts smh. That's very undemocratic. They are scraping the barrel. I see it as a severe form of identity politics. Yet, ironically they blame the left for identity politics. I can't hold back my laughter. Trump is like a disgruntled X factor contestant who can't sing well and blames his failure on the judges. Or a narcissist parent whose kid doesn't get through college but blames the college for it. Next to the word President, he should have written the name Trump in brackets. Edited October 8, 2020 by Preety_India INFJ-T,ptsd,BPD, autism, anger issues Cleared out ignore list today. .. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) It's not just Trump who's out of touch, of the last 7 presidential elections, the Republican party has only managed to win the popular vote one time. I'm hoping they either implode and are replaced by something better, or eventually change thier policy platform to a more moderate one that appeals to more people, so they don't have to resort to fanning the flames of racist resentment and voter disenfranchisement to win elections. Of course all evidence points to them just furthering thier attempts to subvert democracy to win elections, so my hopes aren't exactly high... Edited October 8, 2020 by DocWatts I'm writing a philosophy book! Check it out at : https://7provtruths.org/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, DocWatts said: I'm hoping they either implode and are replaced by something better, or eventually change thier policy platform to a more moderate one that appeals to more people, so they don't have to resort to fanning the flames of racist resentment and voter disenfranchisement to win elections. Of course all evidence points to them just furthering thier attempts to subvert democracy to win elections, so my hopes aren't exactly high... Changing demographics is the biggest issue. Around 2004 or so, the GOP saw the writing on the wall and intentionally modified their platform to tone down white supremacy and be more inclusive. George Bush, McCain and Romney all made efforts. Yet Trump saw he could squeeze one last election if he leveraged traditional GOP platforms targeting conservative/moderate white voters. By intensifying the appeal to white grievances - Trump pulled out a lot of non-voting uneducated whites with grievances. These voters did not resonate with the "compassionate conservatism" of the neo-GOP. Yet Trump has lost moderates that were willing to give Trump a chance - thinking he was a successful businessman. Trump is trying to energize his base, yet it's not enough to win. And his chaotic, contradictory messaging on the election is awful for GOTV of his base. One day Trump is trying to win the election and encouraging his base to vote early and mail in. The next day he says the election and voting is fraudulent. Trump is trying to have it both ways and it's a terrible strategy. Why would a Trumper vote early if early voting is fraudulent? Why wait in line on election day if the election is rigged against you? Early voting data suggests Dems have a huge advantage. Trump telling his base to wait to vote on election day has a huge risk. Putting all of his eggs into the election day basket is a terrible strategy. All sorts of things can happen on election day to dissuade voters from going to the polls. In some areas, the weather will be bad. Some people will be sick on election day. Some people leave work late and are tired, they don't feel like waiting in line. Some people will have a problem pop up in their life to deal with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
