Is Biden really leading?

[LaucherJunge]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-chance-of-winning-election-2020-joe-biden-poll-model-a9609236.html
 

Quote

"President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996."

"Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

 

 

[LaucherJunge]

Just now, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Yes, according to every poll

Same as with Hillary. What does that tell us? Fake News.

[Dryas]

From: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-lose-election-joe-biden-2020-economy-coronavirus-a9525131.html

Quote

A national election model has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

The model by Oxford Economics uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results to predict the elections outcome.

According to the model, Mr Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35 per cent of the popular vote, according to a report by CNN.

The model has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections and is a complete reversal of what the model was predicting before the coronavirus outbreak hit the US.

 

[LaucherJunge]

@Dryas
This one is about popular vote only, also the other one would have 25 out of 27 as opposed to 16 out of 18 and this not only for the popular vote. Also note it's 91% probability, which is very very telling.

[Forestluv]

13 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

Same as with Hillary. What does that tell us? Fake News.

No, not the same with Hillary. 

First, the polls were very close in the 2016. They predicted a 3% Hillary advantage and she won the popular vote by 2%. The main problem with the polls is that they treated each state independently and did not factor in a cluster effect. The polls have been updated. 

As well, Biden’s lead is much larger than Hilary’s. Even Hilary’s largest lead in 2016 is nowhere near Biden’s lead. 

Calling the polls “Fake News” would be very advantageous to Biden. If Trump’s campaign believes the polls are fake and the same thing as with Hilary, they have a false sense of security which would be to their disadvantage. For example, if Trump thinks the polls are Fake News and thinks he is actually winning, he will do the same thing he is now (which isn’t working). If the election was today, it would be a landslide for Biden and democrats. 

One isolated poll or model is very limited. A site like 538 that includes many polls and models has much more statistical power. 

7 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

Also note it's 91% probability, which is very very telling.

91% probability is meaningless if the underlying methodology isn’t sound. Garbage in, garbage out. 

[LaucherJunge]

26 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Calling the polls “Fake News” would be very advantageous to Biden. If Trump’s campaign believes the polls are fake and the same thing as with Hilary, they have a false sense of security which would be to their disadvantage. For example, if Trump thinks the polls are Fake News and thinks he is actually winning, he will do the same thing he is now (which isn’t working). If the election was today, it would be a landslide for Biden and democrats. 

Do you really think that they don't have better info then wo do?

27 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

91% probability is meaningless if the underlying methodology isn’t sound. Garbage in, garbage out. 

25 out of 27 is not sound?

[Forestluv]

6 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

Do you really think that they don't have better info then wo do?

Of course Biden and Trump conduct their own internal polls. Yet that information is not of a higher quality than professional public polls.

8 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

25 out of 27 is not sound?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. People with this mentality lose tons of money in the stock market.

And, it is not that impressive that one in thousands of models has that past performance. Even if we had thousands of shitty models, one of those thousands will get 25 out of 27. Plus, most of those elections were super easy to predict. Any bozo could have predicted Obama would defeat McCain. if we look at the elections that were actually difficult to predict, I would imagine it’s more like 6 out of 8, which isn’t that impressive. And again, it’s about the methodology. Is the methodology updated for current dynamics, or is it relying simply on old metrics?

If Trump and republicans believe their own push polls and polls that define Biden, they are at a huge disadvantage. If they believe every single public poll is Fake News, they are at a major disadvantage. They will continue a strategy that isn’t working. This is one of the hardest things for Trump and many republicans - to look objectively at something they don’t want to look at. 

[LaucherJunge]

1 hour ago, Forestluv said:

First, the polls were very close in the 2016. They predicted a 3% Hillary advantage and she won the popular vote by 2%. The main problem with the polls is that they treated each state independently and did not factor in a cluster effect. The polls have been updated. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Not true at all what you are saying, she was even further ahead then Biden supposedly is now almost everywhere.

Edited July 20, 2020 by LaucherJunge

[Forestluv]

28 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Not true at all what you are saying, she was even further ahead then Biden supposedly is now almost everywhere.

Biden is currently up about 9% on the aggregate of polls. Hilary never got close to that. Trump is in a worse position In this stage of the election than any U.S. president in modern history. I think Trump is even lower than Jimmy Carter was. 

I’m cool with Trumpers thinking Trump is winning and should continue his current strategy.

Trump’s storm troopers tear gassing groups of Mothers is not a winning strategy. And some of those Mothers were pregnant. . . Let that sink in: Trump’s fascist militia is tear gassing pregnant women. Last night the Mothers came ‘armed’ with flowers. Tonight the Mothers plan to come ‘armed’ with cupcakes. Tear gassing these Mothers is not going to win over women voters and regular Americans. It only serves as red meat to Trump’s rabid base that wants to “own the libs”. To them, these Mothers were “asking for it”. It’s the mentality of an abusive husband saying “she had it coming”.

[hamedsf]

leading or not leading, democrats aren't appealing for me anymore. 

[LaucherJunge]

@Forestluv
Who ever goes into violent protest being pregnant is to blame for being so stupid to be honest.

[ItsNick]

Trump is on a negative spiral and the polls are becoming more and more in favor of Biden. Yes he's leading and his lead is growing.

I also think Biden will do well in taking moderate republicans away from Trump and this election cycle might help move people from Blue to Orange, which is great.

 

One good function Trump served: Disgusting people up the Spiral. My dad has actually moved left because he started to see the same qualities he despised in Trump in Dutch right-wing nationalist politicians.

[Forestluv]

23 minutes ago, LaucherJunge said:

@Forestluv
Who ever goes into violent protest being pregnant is to blame for being so stupid to be honest.

Classic victim blaming. The mentality of “She had it coming”. . . However, it wasn’t a violent protest. It was a peaceful protest of a group of Mothers. Trump’s fascist storm troopers tear gassed a group of peaceful Mothers. 

Trying to rationalize unmarked federal militia tear gassing peaceful Mothers is waaay outside the social norm. If republicans want to go with the “It’s OK to tear gas peaceful Mothers” strategy, they will lose big time. Tear gassing peaceful Moms does not go over well with female voters and regular Americans. It is red meat for rabid Trumpers. 

As well, Trump’s militia are kidnapping regular community members, forcing them into unmarked vans and taking them to undisclosed locations in secret. This is not a winning election strategy. It’s not even an election strategy. It is anti-democratic. It is a form of fascism. 

[Bodigger]

1 hour ago, Forestluv said:

Biden is currently up about 9% on the aggregate of polls. Hilary never got close to that. Trump is in a worse position In this stage of the election than any U.S. president in modern history. I think Trump is even lower than Jimmy Carter was. 

I’m cool with Trumpers thinking Trump is winning and should continue his current strategy.

Trump’s storm troopers tear gassing groups of Mothers is not a winning strategy. And some of those Mothers were pregnant. . . Let that sink in: Trump’s fascist militia is tear gassing pregnant women. Last night the Mothers came ‘armed’ with flowers. Tonight the Mothers plan to come ‘armed’ with cupcakes. Tear gassing these Mothers is not going to win over women voters and regular Americans. It only serves as red meat to Trump’s rabid base that wants to “own the libs”. To them, these Mothers were “asking for it”. It’s the mentality of an abusive husband saying “she had it coming”.

Imagine that, Federal officers protecting a Federal building.  Sounds suspect to me.

[Forestluv]

15 minutes ago, Bodigger said:

Imagine that, Federal officers protecting a Federal building.  Sounds suspect to me.

No. There is a difference between protecting a federal building from graffiti and unmarked militia invading the streets of Portland, tear gassing groups of peaceful Mothers and Navy vets, kidnapping regular citizens throughout the city, throwing them into unmarked vans and driving away to undisclosed locations. That is an example of fascism. Every American, regardless of party, should be concerned about this. This is the type of thing that happens in 3rd world countries with dictators. When this has occurred in other countries, the U.S. has stood up, spoken against it and has threatened the country with sanctions or military force.

Trump has completely polluted the Republican Party. No previous republican president would have tolerated this type of fascism on American soil. Yet now the republicans sit idly by and say things like “oh, they are just protecting a federal building”.

Sounds suspect? Go check out the wallofmoms twitter feed and see what actual Moms are saying. . . 

[Bodigger]

11 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

No. There is a difference between protecting a federal building from graffiti and unmarked militia invading the streets of Portland, tear gassing groups of peaceful Mothers and Navy vets, kidnapping regular citizens throughout the city, throwing them into unmarked vans and driving away to undisclosed locations. That is an example of fascism. Every American, regardless of party, should be concerned about this. This is the type of thing that happens in 3rd world countries with dictators. When this has occurred in other countries, the U.S. has stood up, spoken against it and has threatened the country with sanctions or military force.

Trump has completely polluted the Republican Party. No previous republican president would have tolerated this type of fascism on American soil. Yet now the republicans sit idly by and say things like “oh, they are just protecting a federal building from graffiti”. . .They are terrified of Trump’s twitter feed. 

I will do the research with an open mind.  So far I am seeing reports with large amounts of bias and I am not about to take your word for it.  Something stinks about the way this is being reported thus far.  For now, stop spreading BS unless you were there.

[Forestluv]

2 hours ago, Bodigger said:

I will do the research with an open mind.  So far I am seeing reports with large amounts of bias and I am not about to take your word for it.  Something stinks about the way this is being reported thus far.  For now, stop spreading BS unless you were there.

There are actual videos of Moms that were there. . . https://twitter.com/hashtag/wallofmoms?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw

A peaceful Navy veteran gets beaten and tear gassed. His fingers are broken and he needs surgery. 

Portland civilians being kidnapped by unmarked federal militia, thrown into unmarked vans and taken to secret locations:

Miami police arrest a completely peaceful protestor that was simply walking peacefully down the street.

I know it’s hard to acknowledge that our country has devolved so far. Yet we can’t put our heads in the sand. That allows fascism to take root and grow. 

 

[Bodigger]

@Forestluv  Like I said;

18 minutes ago, Bodigger said:

I will do the research with an open mind.  

I have seen many outlandish things happening over the past few months, so I will be guarded on what show's up in the media.  There is routinely some type of provocation which is not expressed.

[Forestluv]

17 minutes ago, Bodigger said:

@Forestluv  Like I said;

I have seen many outlandish things happening over the past few months, so I will be guarded on what show's up in the media.  There is routinely some type of provocation which is not expressed.

That Navy veteran, group of Moms, Portland civilian and woman walking down the street in Miami did nothing to provoke. These are the early stages of fascism. 

[hoodrow trillson]

One thing I'm noticing about Trump is that he's doing everything in his power to lose this election in the form of public appearances.  Maybe he doesn't want to do another 4 years of him getting roasted by an entire country every single day, 365 days a year.

Though, what he is doing is counterintuitive, so this might mean he might actually win again lmao

It's very interesting because the current pandemic will affect the polls in some way.  Some people might not want to risk long lines at the poll and might not even end up voting at all.

Let's not forget "Harambe" got thousands upon thousands of votes on the ballot.