Swedens response to Covid19

[andyjohnsonman]

As a stage green country, Sweden took a more stage orange approach to tackling Covid19 than most stage orange countries. They focussed on their economy over the wellbeing and health of their people and are once of the only countries whose economy has grown throughout this. According to the spiral dynamics model green is more about community and welfare of people over the economy but actually all the stage orange countries were about the welfare of their people over the economy, how can this be?

 

 

 

 

[Florian]

Isn't swedens approach more yellowish?

[andyjohnsonman]

I didn't think there were any yellow countries

[Rilles]

too distracted by her sideboob to listen, is she feeding a baby or something

Edited June 2, 2020 by Rilles

[andyjohnsonman]

now you've made me distracted too

[Rilles]

Just now, andyjohnsonman said:

now you've made me distracted too

concentration practice has paid off

[karltiboleng]

Don't confuse the model for reality

[andyjohnsonman]

im trying not to but at the same time what's the point in a map that's not even guiding me in the correct direction?

Edited June 2, 2020 by andyjohnsonman

[karltiboleng]

@andyjohnsonman Hmm yeah that's true. But anyway I feel that this is a more "yellow" approach, so to speak. I think that yellow looks a lot like orange, but it's an integration of economic growth and a socialistic "love for all" paradigm. Of course there is no clear answer on how to achieve this, but I think their approach closely resembles yellow. Remember that tier 2 takes the "good" parts out of each stage and integrates them all. No stage is better than another, they're all paradigmatic value judgments. So I think that they felt that mostly people were acting out of fear, and they took a more logical approach, so as to not stifle economic progress too much.

[Hansu]

I wouldn't mind the Sweden model, if they cared for their people. Sweden is practically throwing their elderly under the bus. The only reason I can see here is that keeping younger people alive while letting the virus kill elderly is profitable. Treating everyone equally is unprofitable, that doesn't make money. Who doesn't want to get rid of the lazy ass elderly do nothings in exchange for that sweet sweet young tax money? Thats every finance politicians wet dream in the western countries right now!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

Quote from the article:
 

Quote

 

'We were told not to send them in'

"They told us that we shouldn't send anyone to the hospital, even if they may be 65 and have many years to live. We were told not to send them in," says Latifa Löfvenberg, a nurse who worked in several care homes around Gävle, north of Stockholm, at the beginning of the pandemic.

"Some can have a lot of years left to live with loved ones, but they don't have the chance... because they never make it to the hospital," she says. "They suffocate to death. And it's a lot of panic and it's very hard to just stand by and watch."

A paramedic working in Stockholm, who wanted to remain anonymous, told the BBC she had not had a single call-out to an elderly care home connected to Covid-19, despite putting in overtime during the crisis.

 

Im honestly surprised that human rights activists dont seem to react to the ongoing mistreatment. Maybe they idealize Sweden too much because its a northern country.

 

EDIT: I dont think trying to achieve crowd immunity is inhumane, in fact it could be more humane than trying to kill out the virus. But it is inhumane to not treat the most fragile part of your society for something you are deliberately causing

Edited June 2, 2020 by Hansu

[Nak Khid]

 

On a per capita basis, Sweden's Covid-19 deaths are 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic countries.

Sweden has just over 3 times the death rate of Denmark.
But note Denmark's population density disadvantage of 138:25.

Success or Failure?

Success is in the eyes of the beholder. 

A death rate 5.5x is acceptable to some but not others. 

But Sweden has a ton of pressure to under-report Covid deaths. I would be shocked if they didn't.

Regardless, one can easily look at this data, ignore the undercounts (perhaps even factor some in), and conclude Sweden did the right thing. 

But how does that translate to the US?

Population Density of NYC

For comparison purposes, the Population Density of New York City is 26,403 people per square mile (10,194/km²), makes it the densest of any American municipality with a population above 100,000.

Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile (25,846/km²), highest of any county in the United States.

(Stockholm  13,000 per square mile - added Nak Khid)

 

Sweden Not a Good Model 

Even if one is happy with Sweden's results, it is not a representative model for large US cities.

R0 - Infection Transmission

Nate Silver has an Interesting Twitter Thread on R0, the the number of people someone will infect on average, if they catch it.

The positive test rate, which I believe is a better metric than the raw number of + tests, continues to show slow, incremental improvement. But I do mean *slow*. It's consistent with a nationwide R of around 0.9, where R>1 means the epidemic is growing & R<1 means it's shrinking.

That is a national average, however. There are places like NY where there's a reasonably steep decline (R of perhaps 0.7-0.8). In turn, there are likely to be other places where infections are still growing (R of perhaps 1.1 to 1.3) and it isn't just an artifact of more testing.

Overall, there isn't a lot of room for error. A few states have had clear, sustained improvement and may have room in their R "budget" to relax restrictions. But for many others, even slight changes could bring R >1. Or R may be >1 already.

That's not to say it's necessarily up to policymakers. I don't care about the state capitol protests, which are an overplayed story. But it's clear from e.g. mobility data that people are moving around more and abiding less strictly by social distancing.

I wish we knew more about what this activity consisted of. Taking a nice, long drive to a non-crowded state park should be pretty safe, for instance. But pressure points seem to be outdoor activity in more crowded spaces, and small-to-medium-sized social gatherings.

Reopening Too Early 

At an R0 that's well below 1, the disease will die out (but perhaps return later in the Autumn or Winter).

Ar R0 of 1, the current results can go on for a long time. 

An end to the lockdowns too early could easily send R0 back well above 0.

The latter is what everyone want to avoid.

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Nak Khid

[Nak Khid]

April 19, 2020

 

 

Sweden, 
population 10,343,403
Total deaths, COVID-19,  4,468 reported  6/1/2020
 

 

The health agency believed that 5–10% of the population in Stockholm County were carrying the virus on 9 April. In mid-April, it was reported that out of the approximately 1,300 people who had died after having caught the virus, one third had been living at nursing homes. The figure differed between the regions. In Stockholm, the city most affected by the pandemic, half of the deaths had been residents in one of its many nursing homes.

In April, many of the organisations running the public transport systems for the Swedish counties had reported a 50% drop in public transport usage, including Kalmar Länstrafik in Kalmar County, Skånetrafiken in Skåne County, Stockholm Public Transit in Stockholm County, and Västtrafik in Västra Götaland County.[92][93][86][94] In Stockholm, the streets grew increasingly emptier, with a 30% drop in the number of cars,[95] and 70% fewer pedestrians

Overall, travel from the Stockholm region had decreased by 80–90%, and the number of citizens of Stockholm travelling to popular holiday destinations like Gotland and the ski resorts in Åre had fallen with more than 90%. 

[frozen_cube]

 

 

It is actually a more yellow responde, I mean, I'm not sure about the consequences, we will only see in about a year, but their decisions have been more evidence based than most other countries.

[Eren Eeager]

I think Sweden trust its people that they will stay relatively away form each other and with that trust it can focus on economy. This trust is not there in the US because Americans are not as responsible and as conscious as Swedish people. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Eren Eeager

[Nak Khid]

Just now, Eren Eeager said:

I think Sweden trust its people that they will stay relatively away form each other and with that trust it can focus on economy. This trust is not there in the US because Americans are as responsible and as conscious as Swedish people. 

Yes, that is what the people in the video I posted said 

[Eren Eeager]

@Nak Khid really. I did not watch it 

[andyjohnsonman]

Yea seems they are stage yellow good info thanks

[blankisomeone]

The economy and the wellbeing of the population aren’t separate things.

[andyjohnsonman]

They are if by keeping the economy up and running it's killing people in excess surely?