The thing I don't understand about Covid quarantine

[bazera]

Hey, 

This question has been bugging me for a while and I wasn't able to come up with an answer.

Yeah, I understand that sitting at home, closing schools and universities and that kind of stuff is useful for not spreading the virus, right? 

And libertarians are saying that it's all bullshit and we have to open everything. And yeah, I don't find that line of reasoning logical.

But, how long? Until scientists invent a vaccine? But what if that takes a year or two? What then?

If the government opens up everything after a month or two, what will be different? What will make a virus stop spreading? What will be the reason of this quarantine period that we are going through right now?

Maybe I don't understand enough biology to get this right. 

What do you think?

[Hansu]

I think we must do the best we can to remain in control of the virus until we find a solution to erase it off the earth.

Until then, its a chaos no matter what we do, but at least its a controlled chaos

Edited May 2, 2020 by Hansu

[Preety_India]

 

The idea is to control the transmission especially during the peak of the curve. Every epidemic follows a curve where it has a peak and then a plateau followed by a significant downfall. 

However considering the daily count of deaths, it's not the best time to go out because it will rapidly increase the transmission rate of the virus. 

When the epidemic is at the end stages of the curve, the transmission rate will fall drastically and then going out won't be a problem because the number of infected people will be really low so rapid transmission will be less likely. 

The curve shows the daily count of new cases, during a peak, this count is really high, and once past the peak point, the curve begins to drop, plateau and eventually flattens out.. 

Now there are three things that need to slow down on the curve. The rate of virus transmission and the rate of dying or death count and the number of active cases. 

Usually when the curve begins to flatten away from the peak, both the transmission rate as well as the death count tend to be on the decline. There are less deaths and less new  people infected. But the number of active cases can still be high which can mean that  the number of patients who either die or recover is still lower than the number of new infections. 

The curve truly flattens only when all three parameters decrease. In order for the number of active cases to decline, the number of patients who either die or recover should be higher than the number of new infections. 

The lockdown can be lifted once the peak point has passed and the flattening is achieved, unless there is secondary wave of the virus transmission in which case social distancing will need to be enforced again. 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Preety_India

[Forestluv]

@bazera Consider what happens when the health care system is overwhelmed. Imagine every single hospital bed occupied. There is no longer hospital care for new patients. If someone gets in a severe car accident, they are on their own. 

[Leo Gura]

The point is to avoid breaking the hospital system and to buy time to increase teating capacity, PPE, and ultimately a vaccine.

Massive testing is necessary which takes time to manufacture.

[lmfao]

@bazera I've thought about the possibility of there being a second peak if people are released from quarantine. Supposing the government take no further action and lift lockdown ,even if slowly, maybe it could peak a second time.  But it doesn't have to stay on the trajectory of a second peak I'm assuming, with action during bought time. Like everyone else said, it buys time for researching cures, healthcare infrastructure and capacity, getting massive testing done so people can resume lives to normal, etc. 

Some people ( dunno if they're right or not or if it will happen) speculate that once quarantine is over, it might peak again. I'm pessimistic of the entropy and degrees of freedom you give virus transmission upon releasing lockdown. I just hope enough action is done during lockdown in all these countries to prevent a second peak. Maybe it will peak rhythmically over the period of years, idk. Maybe the virus will be an ever-present force you're always fighting the force/trajectory of. Either way, it seems like a very long term game will be played. 

TLDR coronavirus is Trump's master plan to cancel the 2020 elections and usurp democracy ; ) 

Edited May 2, 2020 by lmfao