Covid19 - Fear, control, the TRUTH?

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

6 hours ago, Commodent said:

That's what I thought. You're putting all your faith in one guy on YouTube who you've told yourself is really significant. Which timestamp, by the way?

I assume this survey (and it's only one survey from one town) is what he's reffering to, which suggests a mortality rate of 0.37%. In this town they did extensive testing and out of all studies this is the lowest estimate I have seen, by far. But still, the death rate of seasonal flu is typically around 0.1%, and that is without extensive testing. So those numbers are not really comparable, and even if they were that would still indicate that COVID-19 is more than three times as deadly. So nothing suggests it's "on par with normal flu". But of course, with good research you already would have known that.

The hospitals in Northern Italy were/are massively overburdened. In Wuhan they had to build a hospital in 10 days to deal with the influx of new patients. These are not theories, these are facts. We can only speculate where we would have been today if we had done nothing.

You'll find a way to discredit anything I say that doesn't back up your own opinions/beliefs about the narrative around this flu. If I post an extremely insightful interview with one of the most reliable immunology experts in the world you'll say I'm "putting all my faith in one guy" lol. 

Its clear you didn't take the time to watch the interview because he explains why it is on par with the normal flu. The vast majority of people who have Covid 19 are asymptomatic and not being accounted for in treatment centers. Divide those numbers by deaths and you get in a 1% mortality range, on par with a normal seasonal flu. He does explain it is novel and more aggressive. But that the fear that being put out is directly making it worse on peoples physiology.

Edited April 10, 2020 by TrynaBeTurquoise

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

Here is the official pandemic data:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data

Divide the deaths by the people confirmed cases in each country, and then look at the cases recovered compared to the deaths (with a vast % of those deaths dying with other chronic health conditions). And then take into account all the asymptomatic people that don't even get counted!

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by TrynaBeTurquoise

[The observer]

1 hour ago, TrynaBeTurquoise said:

Divide those numbers by deaths and you get in a 1% mortality range, on par with a normal seasonal flu.

first of all the death rate of normal seasonal flu is about 0.1% so your number is completely false and youre spreading misinformation and even if we ignored that fact this covid-19 would still be 10 times more deadly than the normal seasonal flu.

second of all what calculator are you using? divide 18000 deaths by 144000 confirmed cases and multiply the number by 100 and you will get 12.7% thats how dangerous the virus is its already killed one eighth of all infected people. imagine 60 million people getting all infected or dont imagine i will do the math for you it will kill no less than 7 million people.

dude seriously stop!

Edited April 10, 2020 by The observer

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

43 minutes ago, The observer said:

first of all the death rate of normal seasonal flu is about 0.1% so your number is completely false and youre spreading misinformation and even if we ignored that fact this covid-19 would still be 10 times more deadly than the normal seasonal flu.

second of all what calculator are you using? divide 18000 deaths by 144000 confirmed cases and multiply the number by 100 and you will get 12.7% thats how dangerous the virus is its already killed one eighth of all infected people. imagine 60 million people getting all infected or dont imagine i will do the math for you it will kill no less than 7 million people.

dude seriously stop!

Lmao! No false information is being spread. 

You are nitpicking from Italy, and you get 12%, which is ridiculously high from the actual mortality rate of the virus worldwide. Again, its not taking into account asymptomatic people, which make up the majority of people who have Covid, just confirmed cases.

Lets do the math for the US for example. Divide 17,842 by 476,818 = .03 x100 = 3.7% (Not taking into account asymptomatic people not confirmed cases or stayed home and recovered themselves) 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/

Quote

A lack of adequate testing means many of those who have been infected with the coronavirus will not appear in official statistics.

This suggests that many estimates for its mortality rate are much too high.

We need to build better systems for sharing and reporting data.

Public health epidemiology is the science of counting to prevent disease and promote health. We count the number of new cases of a particular disease; this is the incidence. Then we count how much a disease has spread in a population; this is the prevalence.

When it comes to COVID-19, counting is a challenge. Despite all the news articles and reports, we know very little about the incidence or prevalence of this new disease. And as is always the case: ignorance breeds fear. In my hometown of New York City and elsewhere one fear is on just about everyone’s mind: death rates here appear to be considerably higher than rates reported elsewhere.

Or are they? Using patient data from China, public health officials initially estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases. The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. This matters because they do not appear in any of the official statistics.

However, instead of counting us all in the denominator, in many countries including the US, only people sick enough to go to the hospital are counted. People sick enough to go to the hospital are more likely to need critical care, and patients in critical condition are more likely to die than patients with mild symptoms. This means the fatality rate looks higher than it really is.

Further, even when we are testing, depending on the type of test used, we may only be counting people who are actively infected, not those who had it and are thus currently immune. This again will lead to an underestimate of the denominator.

What does it mean? It means that the denominator (number of infections) is smaller than it should be, so the numerator (number of deaths) has a lot of power. In this case, the result is that the death rate (numerator divided by denominator) reported is higher than it should be. In other words, by not counting the people who don’t need hospital care, we are massively over projecting the percent of infected people who die of COVID-19. It’s a dangerous message that is causing fear all driven by a false denominator.

In the coming days, the death rate is going to look worse, especially as hospitals get more and more crowded and we ration care. It will seem as if a higher percentage of COVID-infected people are dying than is actually the case. Unlike other diseases, there is neither enough nor appropriate testing, making it impossible to assess how many of us were already infected and thus are no longer at risk of infection. The vast majority of us will be infected, survive, and remain unware if we carried the virus or were contagious, so we will unwittingly infect our friends and family members.

Data from across the US and from other countries about deaths by age, underlying medical conditions, medications being taken at time of death, and other factors could eventually help us understand how COVID-19 behaves at both a population and individual level. In the meantime, we need to adjust official population-level estimate of case numbers, or at the very least, build better systems for sharing data and reporting.

And at some point, we will return to and rebuild our daily routines, with the new addition of attending to the mental health crisis caused by weeks of fear, isolation and anxiety. Much of which could have been avoided by an accurate and clear definition of the denominator

 

[Inliytened1]

Guys this can't be compared to the flu.  The only reason this hasn't infected and killed thousands more people is because of social distancing.  The numbers already exceed the seasonal flu and that is with social distancing.   This thing is the perfect storm.  A great listen on this is Joe Rogan's interview with a brilliant doctor a few days back.  Dr. Peter Hotez.  He is spearheading with others the race for antibody testing.  When we solidify that the people with antibodies can start going back out.

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

5 minutes ago, Inliytened1 said:

Guys this can't be compared to the flu.  The only reason this hasn't infected and killed thousands more people is because of social distancing.  The numbers already exceed the seasonal flu and that is with social distancing.   This thing is the perfect mix.  A great listen on this is Joe Rogan's interview with a brilliant doctor a few days back.  Ill get his name.  He is spearheading with others the race for antibody testing.  When we solidify that the people with antibodies can start going back out.

Its more aggressive than the flu, only because it is novel and peoples immune systems have no memory of it, but yes, it can be compared to the flu quite easily. As posted above, the mortality rates around Covid-19 are overestimates.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by TrynaBeTurquoise

[Inliytened1]

7 minutes ago, TrynaBeTurquoise said:

Its more aggressive than the flu, only because it is novel and peoples immune systems have no memory of it, 

That and thousands are asymptomatic so they would be walking around spreading it. I haven't reviewed the numbers you are putting out but are you saying this virus is no more lethal than seasonal flu?

Even if its slightly more lethal, which it is, when you combine the other factors we mentioned above you have a perfect storm.

[Jahmaine]

 

Link One: Montana physician Dr. Annie Bukacek discusses how COVID 19 death certificates are being manipulated

 

Link Two: US Doctor: How can you make a vaccine for something never proven to exist? A must-watch

Link Three: Dr Andrew Kaufman MD & guest discussing what COVID-19/Coronavirus is = Scam

Come to your conclusions.

If you don’t watch them and validate for yourself what’s being said, then you opinion towards it has no grounds and is invalid.

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

@Jahmaine Thanks for posting!

[The observer]

@TrynaBeTurquoise

there really is no way to changing a conspiracy theorist mind. and you cant use undiagnosed people as an argument because it can be equally used to oppose your theories. tests are being run on hundreds of thousands of people each day and those are the people who actually care for their health families and societies. for me if I show even the slightest signs of infection I will go and ask for a test and i assume most people are like me. people who arent yet diagnosed are potentially contagious and can develop symptoms at any time so that makes it even worse. not knowing whether you have already been infected and recovered or not is not an advantage its a threat to yourself and to others besides you can still get infected twice or more so you dont actually avoid the risk after surviving the virus initially as theres no evidence of immunity after initial recovery and again you are spreading misinformation.

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

16 minutes ago, The observer said:

@TrynaBeTurquoise

there really is no way to changing a conspiracy theorist mind. and you cant use undiagnosed people as an argument because it can be equally used to oppose your theories. tests are being run on hundreds of thousands of people each day and those are the people who actually care for their health families and societies. for me if I show even the slightest signs of infection I will go and ask for a test and i assume most people are like me. people who arent yet diagnosed are potentially contagious and can develop symptoms at any time so that makes it even worse. not knowing whether you have already been infected and recovered or not is not an advantage its a threat to yourself and to others besides you can still get infected twice or more so you dont actually avoid the risk after surviving the virus initially as theres no evidence of immunity after initial recovery and again you are spreading misinformation.

So many things wrong with this post I don't know where to begin.

First of I am not nor have ever been a conspiracy theorist or am even posting anything regarding conspiracy theories. Second, that is a 'dirty', nebulous word used to discredit people without nuanced investigation into the claim they are making. 

Despite not being a conspiracy theorist, I am open minded to any possibility when presented with the evidence, and do not engage in programmed black and white thinking. 

I have posted all credible sources. Its up to you to read them yourself and investigate if you care about getting to the truth. Again, none of this is misinformation.

I am surprised on a forum you would think that would have more open minded people, it is still run by black and white thinking, reductionism, and other fear based defense mechanisms. 

 

[DrewNows]

12 minutes ago, TrynaBeTurquoise said:

I am surprised on a forum you would think that would have more open minded people, it is still run by black and white thinking, reductionism, and other fear based defense mechanisms. 

yes sadly anyone still getting triggered and is unwilling to create space within will indeed be susceptible to this...others choose to just avoid it all together (Leo?) 

@The observer shake and bake: 

The following is from a medical forum. The writer prefers to stay anonymous, because presenting any narrative different than the official one can cause you a lot of stress in the toxic environment caused by the scam which surrounds COVID-19 these days.

I work in the healthcare field. Here's the problem, we are testing people for any strain of a Coronavirus. Not specifically for COVID-19. There are no reliable tests for a specific COVID-19 virus. There are no reliable agencies or media outlets for reporting numbers of actual COVID-19 virus cases. This needs to be addressed first and foremost. Every action and reaction to COVID-19 is based on totally flawed data and we simply can not make accurate assessments.
This is why you're hearing that most people with COVID-19 are showing nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. That's because most Coronavirus strains are nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. The few actual novel Coronavirus cases do have some worse respiratory responses, but still have a very promising recovery rate, especially for those without prior issues.
The ‘gold standard’ in testing for COVID-19 is laboratory isolated/purified coronavirus particles free from any contaminants and particles that look like viruses but are not, that have been proven to be the cause of the syndrome known as COVID-19 and obtained by using proper viral isolation methods and controls (not the PCR that is currently being used or Serology /antibody tests which do not detect virus as such). PCR basically takes a sample of your cells and amplifies any DNA to look for ‘viral sequences’, i.e. bits of non-human DNA that seem to match parts of a known viral genome.
The problem is the test is known not to work.
It uses ‘amplification’ which means taking a very very tiny amount of DNA and growing it exponentially until it can be analyzed. Obviously any minute contaminations in the sample will also be amplified leading to potentially gross errors of discovery.
Additionally, it’s only looking for partial viral sequences, not whole genomes, so identifying a single pathogen is next to impossible even if you ignore the other issues.
The Mickey Mouse test kits being sent out to hospitals, at best, tell analysts you have some viral DNA in your cells. Which most of us do, most of the time. It may tell you the viral sequence is related to a specific type of virus – say the huge family of coronavirus. But that’s all. The idea these kits can isolate a specific virus like COVID-19 is nonsense.
And that’s not even getting into the other issue – viral load.
If you remember the PCR works by amplifying minute amounts of DNA. It therefore is useless at telling you how much virus you may have. And that’s the only question that really matters when it comes to diagnosing illness. Everyone will have a few virus kicking round in their system at any time, and most will not cause illness because their quantities are too small. For a virus to sicken you you need a lot of it, a massive amount of it. But PCR does not test viral load and therefore can’t determine if a osteogenesis is present in sufficient quantities to sicken you.
If you feel sick and get a PCR test any random virus DNA might be identified even if they aren’t at all involved in your sickness which leads to false diagnosis.
And coronavirus are incredibly common. A large percentage of the world human population will have covi DNA in them in small quantities even if they are perfectly well or sick with some other pathogen.
Do you see where this is going yet? If you want to create a totally false panic about a totally false pandemic – pick a coronavirus.
They are incredibly common and there’s tons of them. A very high percentage of people who have become sick by other means (flu, bacterial pneumonia, anything) will have a positive PCR test for covi even if you’re doing them properly and ruling out contamination, simply because covis are so common.
There are hundreds of thousands of flu and pneumonia victims in hospitals throughout the world at any one time.
All you need to do is select the sickest of these in a single location – say Wuhan – administer PCR tests to them and claim anyone showing viral sequences similar to a coronavirus (which will inevitably be quite a few) is suffering from a ‘new’ disease.
Since you already selected the sickest flu cases a fairly high proportion of your sample will go on to die.
You can then say this ‘new’ virus has a CFR higher than the flu and use this to infuse more concern and do more tests which will of course produce more ‘cases’, which expands the testing, which produces yet more ‘cases’ and so on and so on.
Before long you have your ‘pandemic’, and all you have done is use a simple test kit trick to convert the worst flu and pneumonia cases into something new that doesn’t actually exist.
Now just run the same scam in other countries. Making sure to keep the fear message running high so that people will feel panicky and less able to think critically.
Your only problem is going to be that – due to the fact there is no actual new deadly pathogen but just regular sick people, you are mislabeling your case numbers, and especially your deaths, are going to be way too low for a real new deadly virus pandemic.

But you can stop people pointing this out in several ways.
1. You can claim this is just the beginning and more deaths are imminent. Use this as an excuse to quarantine everyone and then claim the quarantine prevented the expected millions of dead.
2. You can tell people that ‘minimizing’ the dangers is irresponsible and bully them into not talking about numbers.
3. You can talk crap about made up numbers hoping to blind people with pseudoscience.
4. You can start testing well people (who, of course, will also likely have shreds of coronavirus DNA in them) and thus inflate your ‘case figures’ with ‘asymptomatic carriers’ (you will of course have to spin that to sound deadly even though any virologist knows the more symptom-less cases you have the less deadly is your pathogen.
Take these 4 simple steps and you can have your own entirely manufactured pandemic up and running in weeks.
They can not "confirm" something for which there is no accurate test 

BannedFalsePandemicArticle.pdf

Edited April 10, 2020 by DrewNows

[Inliytened1]

There are 18k people dead as of today in a 5 week period with social distancing.   I have seen numbers for the flu killing between 12k and 80k a year depending on the season.   So without social distancing the hospitals would have been overrun and many more would be dying.  And  many more would have been infected from people walking around without symptoms.   The death rate would grow exponentially.  Let's see what happens in Sweden. 

[Commodent]

2 hours ago, TrynaBeTurquoise said:

You'll find a way to discredit anything I say that doesn't back up your own opinions/beliefs about the narrative around this flu. If I post an extremely insightful interview with one of the most reliable immunology experts in the world you'll say I'm "putting all my faith in one guy" lol. 

Its clear you didn't take the time to watch the interview because he explains why it is on par with the normal flu. The vast majority of people who have Covid 19 are asymptomatic and not being accounted for in treatment centers. Divide those numbers by deaths and you get in a 1% mortality range, on par with a normal seasonal flu. He does explain it is novel and more aggressive. But that the fear that being put out is directly making it worse on peoples physiology.

One of the most reliable immunology experts, according to who? Neither his Wiki page nor his bio mentions the word immunology once. He just seems like your typical self-help guru, mostly just talking about how you can reprogram your mind.

Although that doesn't really matter. I was mostly just referring to how you like many others are getting your opinions from highly dubious sources, which hardly can be considered evidence.

No, I did not watch it and I feel no need to. To be honest I don't really care about the coronavirus. It's just too hard to sit and watch when people are spreading blatant disinformation and destructive "us vs. them"-mentality. But I'm going to disengage from now on because it never leads to anywhere.

Read this to understand how one calculates mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

They also have up-to-date stats:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death rate is probably fairly low, but it's still serious because health care systems are being crippled. This is not the flu.

[DrewNows]

41 minutes ago, Inliytened1 said:

There are 18k people dead as of today in a 5 week period with social distancing.   I have seen numbers for the flu killing between 12k and 80k a year depending on the season.   So without social distancing the hospitals would have been overrun and many more would be dying.  And  many more would have been infected from people walking around without symptoms.   The death rate would grow exponentially.  Let's see what happens in Sweden. 

Right? Might be interesting 

Edited April 10, 2020 by DrewNows

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

8 minutes ago, Commodent said:

One of the most reliable immunology experts, according to who? Neither his Wiki page nor his bio mentions the word immunology once. He just seems like your typical self-help guru, mostly just talking about how you can reprogram your mind.

Although that doesn't really matter. I was mostly just referring to how you like many others are getting your opinions from highly dubious sources, which hardly can be considered evidence.

No, I did not watch it and I feel no need to. To be honest I don't really care about the coronavirus. It's just too hard to sit and watch when people are spreading blatant disinformation and destructive "us vs. them"-mentality. But I'm going to disengage from now on because it never leads to anywhere.

Read this to understand how one calculates mortality rate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

They also have up-to-date stats:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Death rate is probably fairly low, but it's still serious because health care systems are being crippled. This is not the flu.

So you basically just didn't see the word "immunology" on his extremely short wiki page, didn't even watch the video, then judge him as a "self help guru?? (wtf..) say you "dont even care" about the coronavirus (lol) and then post some statistics in which I have already shown above, are not accurate mortality rates.

Hilarious.

[brugluiz]

@Commodent, oh, man, do you really believe that just because a scientist has a Wiki page he/she is a reliable source? Oh, dear...

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

9 minutes ago, DrewNows said:

Right? Might be interesting 

I'd never thought I would actually see the day where Fox News provides useful information 

[Commodent]

21 minutes ago, TrynaBeTurquoise said:

So you basically just didn't see the word "immunology" on his extremely short wiki page, didn't even watch the video, then judge him as a "self help guru?? (wtf..) say you "dont even care" about the coronavirus (lol) and then post some statistics in which I have already shown above, are not accurate mortality rates.

Hilarious.

Doesn't mention it in his own bio as well. I don't believe for a second that guy is a leading immunologist, and one scientist's opinions does not represent the scientific community. And it doesn't matter, because you were spreading disinformation regardless of how amazing he is. Believing it's on par with the flu is just mind-boggingly naive. NO research indicates that.

Why would I watch it? Would you watch one and a half hour video from a credible source if I gave it to you? Obviously not. Why don't you just give me the timestamp where he said that like I asked for? 

Your data is right, but you conclusions and calculations are super naive and absolutely wrong. If you had actually read the first link I posted you would understand why. 

The last link was merely a suggestion. It's a good website and the data is neatly structured.

Ultimately I don't care about the pandemic, no. I follow the guidelines set by health authorities and otherwise just go on with my life as usual. It has served me pretty well. I'm not freaking out over it.

@brugluiz Where did I say so?

[brugluiz]

@Commodent sorry, man! I read it wrong. I thought you've written something like: "he neither has a Wiki page."