How to decide when there is uncertainty?

[AlphaAbundance]

     There is deciding purely based on value but then there is the probability that the value will occur, the bell curve of where that actual value will be. 

Example 1: Say you can get $100 with 99% chance or $2000 with a 20% chance? Which would be the best decision? How do you make this decision? Especially when you don't know the exact probabilities?

Example 2: Say you can turn in an major essay late that takes 5 hours to do with a possibility of it being graded or getting half credit (maybe 20% for combined) or just not do it at all. Which would be the best decision? How do you make that decision? Especially when you don't know the probability?

Basically how do you make a decision when there is a risk, chance of the value not panning through, of you not getting the fruits of your labor? It seems like this can promote or be a cop out for laziness, should you always do something that will bring value no matter the odds? When should you take the chance and when should you let it go? How do you decide when there is uncertainty?

Edited March 6, 2020 by AlphaAbundance

[universe]

The first example you give is a classic problem in game theory of microeconomics. In traditional game theory scientist used the expected value (EV) to find the best decision for any given situation. In your example it would be

A:EV=100*0,99=99

B:EV=2000*0,2=400

So the rational decision would be to choose B because it has a higher value. But humans do not really decide rationally, emotions steer our decision more than we think. Scientist founded the field of behavioral game theory to better describe this phenomena. For a start people are put into different categories depending on if they are either risk-averse, risk-loving or risk-neutral. If you are interested in more, here is a good video that explains the basics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr0K6K16PQs

But these are all just models. You can learn, refine and create this mathematical models for a lifetime if you desire to do so. We can never completely model reality so there will always be uncertainty from a scientific POV.

To answer your question. If you struggle with making decisions, look at your emotions. Learn to master them. Of course,  a baseline cognitive ability to understand the consequences of your decisions is important. But most of the time their relevance will swindle compared to the importance of having the right feelings and emotions when going into these situations. We make dramatically different decisions if we are feeling angry or if we are coming from a place of scarcity. When we are more tranquil, at peace and coming from a place of abundance our decisions will tend to bring outcomes that resonate with this higher energy level.

Even when faced with an unexpected/bad outcome, mastering your emotions will help deal with that as well. There is no need for making the best decision possible because you already have abundance. Even better, you learned something from that situation. Accept and move on (I know this can be hard sometimes).

The best navigation tool for making decision I've found is Self-Love. A simple question you can ask yourself is "How would a person that loves themselves decide?". Our heart will intuitively show us the right way. If you havent already I'd highly recommend you watch Leos video on this topic.

 

[AlphaAbundance]

@universe Appreciate your insights.

[Lento]

@AlphaAbundance