Biden has come back

[tenta]

It's going to come down to biden vs trump, and biden isn't too likely to win that, people just see bernie as the socialist candidate and because they disagree with communism and haven't really looked into it so they end up voting for someone else

[Consilience]

Sometimes self sabotage is the only way to progress... transformation is rarely linear. 

If Biden gets the nomination my gut is saying 4 more years of Trump as well. But 4 more years of Trump could very well create the collective suffering and damage needed to transform our society for future generations. I had hoped the damage already done would be enough. 

[SOUL]

The Democratic establishment and elites would rather have Trump as President instead of Bernie because it secures their place in the power structure while shielding them from any real scrutiny about their roles in oppressing anyone who isn't in their class.

The bonus to the Trump Presidency is that they get to blame Trump for everything while they appear to be the 'resistance' and 'good' in comparison to him as well as cash in through all the fund raising they will do under the facade. That goes for the media, too, they are making bank on this circus.

Edited March 4, 2020 by SOUL

[Consilience]

30 minutes ago, SOUL said:

The bonus to the Trump Presidency is that they get to blame Trump for everything while they appear to be the 'resistance' and 'good' in comparison to him as well as cash in through all the fund raising they will do under the facade. That goes for the media, too, they are making bank on this circus.

This... it’s so sneaky....

[Leo Gura]

It's not rigged against Bernie, the majority of the country is simply not educated or developed enough to vote for Green.

In a democracy, not the best candidates wins, but the one who best matches the development level of the people. That what we're seeing. That's also why Trump won.

The simple fact is, Americans are pretty damn ignorant, so you shouldn't expect them to all of the sudden elect amazing people. That has never been the case.

What Bernie supporters and progrrssives need to understand is that they are in a bubble. The majority of the Americans are not progressive, they are moderate. "The establishment" is not just the corporations, media, and Washington, it is most of the citizens as well. The media is establishment precisely because that's what most people pay to watch, not because the media is somehow overriding the will of the people. The will of the people is just not very bright and the media reflects that. The establishment IS the people. That's what progessives are in denial about.

I see a lot of progressives in denial about thier own biases, projecting their progressive bias on the media and estblaishment. When a progressive calls the media biased, the truth is, the progressive is biased but cannot see it, so the only option is to blame the media.

Joe Biden didn't win because of a rigged media. He won because that's where most people are at. And that's a very difficult thing for progressives to admit. Progressives need to admit that most people are not progrssives. This is a more realistic starting point rather than assuming that a majority of people are progressives but some evil "establishment" is holding them back. That gets into fantastical conspiracy theory territory which fails to properly identify the problem and take responsibility for it.

[Vladz0r]

32 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

...

Joe Biden didn't win because of a rigged media. He won because that's where most people are at. And that's a very difficult thing for progressives to admit. Progressives need to admit that most people are not progrssives. This is a more realistic starting point rather than assuming that a majority of people are progressives but some evil "establishment" is holding them back. That gets into fantastical conspiracy theory territory which fails to properly identify the problem and take responsibility for it.

I think this is a major takeaway here. We do all these dumb polls every election with Bernie, where we take some sample of young or college educated people and say like "Do you support medicare for all" or "Do you support free healthcare" or something like that, and go "Hey look, see! A majority prefer medicare for all! We're progressive!"
I mean, yes, obviously if you lay it out and/or tell it to the people that understand, it will make sense. I explained the healthcare system to my senior citizen stepdad through analogies and examples, and he'd vote Bernie if he was the nominee, but he'll just vote Biden as default like every other regular democrat voter in November. If you paid every person in America a higher wage under the condition they vote for Bernie to enact the policeis that would reap them those savings, of course a lot of people would vote. It's right in front of them at that point.

There is no primetime progressive news. There is no coverage of policies in politics. The social consciousness is not there. It's like that generational replacement thing Leo mentioned in a video or post, that would need to happen first. Maybe another decade or two is requires for a country like the US. It seems rigged to leftists because the platforms progressive use and flock to have a different demographic. It's like saying that financial advice on TV is rigged against people because it's not as progressive as YouTube. Well, obviously it is generally rigged. The audience is boomers who have been stuck believing the same old nonsense from 80s TV. Boomer generations still think that they'll have lower credit scores if they pay off their credit cards in full. If proper advice was given, might actually lose some of their audience due to the dissonance. More importantly, they might start to see slower returns on their investments! I always have trouble engaging with older people on socioeconomic issues because their whole foundation is just off from what my generation sees as more accurate. You kinda just have to be that shining example that people come to for advice way after the fact, change your living situation, do whatever you can do within your means.

I'm super salty but I kind of expected this establishment gang up inevitably as soon as I saw how the national polls were divided between the establishment and the left-wing.

[Forestluv]

Many people will support the highest conscious person they think has a real chance at beating a lower conscious person. If I believed that Bernie had a 20% chance of beating Trump and Biden had a 60% chance of beating Trump, I would choose Biden. Electability ranks as the highest priority for democratic voters and a lot of voters are voting for the highest conscious person they think is electable, even if that means dropping down from green to orange - if this allows beating red. I would take an orange candidate over red in a heartbeat. This is why Biden won Massachusetts - one of the most progressive states in the country. Biden didn’t even campaign there and it’s Warren’s home state. Biden won Massachusetts on electability. 

I think Krystal makes some good points in the below video. In particular, progressive (green) policies are very popular with democratic voters - even in traditionally red states. Support for M4A has huge margins of support of +40 and +28 in Texas and North Carolina, respectively. 

I think some voters are getting turned off by talk of a “revolution” and “berning the system”.  This makes a lot of green people unsettled. I have many solid green friends that are favoring Biden over Bernie for electability. These are people that donate and volunteer for various green issues - such as advocating for the homeless, LGBTQ rights, the environment, M4A etc. They are aligned more toward Bernie’s progressive policies, yet think he is a risk to lose in the general election. There are a lot of people with Trump PTSD that would gladly take a “safer” choice like Biden and incrementalism if it meant beating Trump. Many people will accept a lower conscious candidate, like orange-level Biden, if they believe he has the best chance to beat red/blue level Trump. Beating Trump is the #1 factor for most democrats - especially voters over 40, that vote in the highest percentages. . . . Yesterday, I was with a solid Green progressive friend who is voting for Biden. She is a poc and a social advocate for poc - she is terrified of another four years of Trump and sees Biden as a safer, return to normalcy, option. She sees Bernie as a risky option because he is an independent that wants to take over the Democratic Party and promote a “revolution” that will divide the party.

For many progressive issues, the majority of people support. Progressive issues like banning assault weapons and legalizing marijuana nationally could be considered the “moderate” position in the sense that the majority of Americans support it. If someone goes to online democratic forums, there will be support for progressive policies - the criticism Bernie gets is that he is too divisive, will fracture the Democratic Party and lead to four more years of Trump.

The status quo - in particular the pharmaceutical industry, fossil fuel industry, gun lobby, health insurance industry and military industrial complex - have enormous power in shaping public opinions and policy toward their self-serving agenda. There is an inter-relationship between what people want and what they are fed. . .  Products are produced both by what people desire AND what producers tell people they should desire. 

If Bernie wants to win, I think he needs to change the media narrative quickly to address this. His coalition is not broad enough to win. He isn’t going to get enough young people to vote or convince enough older voters to “join a political revolution”.

 

[Parththakkar12]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't really see Bernie winning it now. Most of the country is still not developed enough to see Bernie's appeal, hence Biden is what a majority can agree on.

I can imagine Trump rubbing his hands in glee, like 'I'm gonna be king of the world for 4 more years now!!'

[Annoynymous]

@Serotoninluv I just loved her analysis! Krystal's arguement was hitting on point. That is partly what i have been thinking throughout the day: Get warren on your team. This should be bernie's top most priority. I consider 40% of the democratic voters are progressives. It is minority but still a workable number. So the whole progressive base needs to come under one single banner and attack biden's record. He has made numerous grave mistakes in the past so it should be an easy job.

The race is far from being over. I feel like it just getting started. We are going to witness some ups and downs of emotions in the next few months.

 

 

[Vladz0r]

 

The reason people think Biden is safer is because he's known. In reality, he'll crumble in the debate, and the young people won't come out to vote for him. Trump has been running rallies all throughout the year. It'll be a close one, for sure.
We've never put Bernie in the mainstream spotlight where he would actually shine. If Bernie was the default nominee and started getting the same regular news coverage that any other delegate has ever gotten, he'd quickly start to click with more of those default voters.
But then this kind of discounts the fact that there are a lot of corporate establishment democrats who will pump millions into Trump in the case of Bernie vs. Trump, and his electibility could quickly slip. In a Biden vs. Trump situation, there's kind of less of a reason to get involved. We already saw a case of a Big Oil PAC throwing ads against Bernie, and multiple other PACs drafting anti-Bernie ads. It could've easily ramped up towards the general election. I mean, up till now, Fox News has been more positive of Bernie than any other channel on TV. Period. It's hard to imagine people giving him the time of day. The electibility thing for Bernie would only work out he managed to swing the media and solidify a spot as the default democrat.

What we'll likely see after Biden's nomination is a a mix of radio silence on politics in the media, with some occasional attacks on both sides. It's a win-win election for the establishment, so they'll just think Biden has it in the bag anyway, and it'll just be a repeat of 2016. 

@Husseinisdoingfine

I'm with you, sick of the neoliberals. It's unfortunate Obama isn't called out for all the garbage he did, but with the two-party system, the Left generally avoids doing that. 

@Serotoninluv

Yeah, I know lgbt pocs who are going to just default back to Biden now as well. People get go back to that lesser of two evils mentality. Bernie's never really won over the media. I feel like for a while this year, Bernie was actually getting some solid media coverage, especially in the weeks before Bloomberg's ads started rolling in.

[Forestluv]

@Annoynymous Warren’s spokesperson said they are “re-evaluating” their campaign today, which means she will likely drop out tomorrow. Warren has a huge bet to make in terms of her career. If she endorses Biden, she will do irreparable damage to her progressive credibility. She might even get primaried by a progressive for her Senate seat. If she endorses Bernie, she will be marginalized by centrist democrats. If Biden wins, she would lose out on a lot of opportunity. Yet, if she endorses Bernie and comes to the Midwest this week to campaign for him, she will restore her bone fides as a true progressive, fighting for progressive issues. This would also change the narrative and energize the base - enough so that I think Bernie becomes the favorite again. I live in Michigan and Bernie is having two rallies in Detroit and Grand Rapids this week. If Warren came to one of those rallies and endorsed Bernie, it would ignite enormous energy. And Warren has it in her. She is highly skilled in some areas and had been one of the leading progressive voices. She was the democratic front runner last October when she was a progressive lioness - back in her M4A and “big structural change” days. Then she hired a bunch of centrist consultants and imploded. . . Personally, I think deep down she is a progressive - yet she also believes in institutions and doesn’t want to deconstruct institutions. If she endorses Biden, she will be a puppet chasing personal ambition. If she endorses Bernie, she will be free to follow her heart and true nature.

Most people are saying she goes with Biden. Yet I think she is more likely to go with Bernie. To me, Warren is very motivated to attain her goal to be president. When this is no longer an option, I think she will default back to what originally motivated her. To fight for working families getting screwed over by toxic capitalism. She spent years of thankless work researching and fighting toxic banks. And guess who is closely tied to banks and the credit card industry? Yep. Joe Biden. And Joe even tried to take credit for Warren’s success in establishing a credit protection agency.

If Warren endorses Bernie in Michigan this week, it’s a game changer. And remember. . . Joe is Joe. He can barely hold things together due to his cognitive decline and now that he is the front runner, he will have a lot of attention. As well, if semi-progressives coalesce- like Tulsi, Steyer, Booker, Castro - to endorse and support Bernie - it would change momentum and the narrative. Yet Warren is the big one. 

[TrynaBeTurquoise]

Its a shame how many are still not voting at all because they don't see the importance of the primary elections or are just too lazy to. In one of my college classes yesterday with people mostly younger than me, the teacher asked who voted today and I was one of the only ones. 

There needs to be more education in high school about the importance of voting. And I think voting needs to become easier and more accessible.  Whats up with people waiting hours in lines? With the hustle and bustle of western culture I'm sure a lot of people just see it as impractical. I had take up a large chunk of my time yesterday just to vote which resulted in me sacrificing getting an assignment done due yesterday for one of my classes. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by TrynaBeTurquoise

[HelluvaGuy]

@Serotoninluv Excellent points, but there is one additional possibility for Warren, which might be the most likely one - stay neutral, which is exactly what she did in 2016. She could just call it quits and then not endorse anybody, trying to appease both the centrists and progressives.

[Annoynymous]

@Serotoninluv wow, now i am really starting believe that Bernie has a lot of ammo power left to bounce back strongly. Btw your analysis was excellent!

I don't see warren endorsing biden. Her progressive career got started to oppose those financial issue that biden had Advocated for in the past. If she does endorse biden, imo that will the end of her as a progressive democrat because progressive base will definately going to see that as "betrayal".

On the other hand, if she is to endorse someone, definitely that should be sanders. Her policies has got a majority of similarities with bernie. The are both very much popular in the progressive base and enough to bring the whole band together and beat biden.     

I personally think if anyone has the real chance to win againo trump, that is Bernie. If Biden becomes nominee, he won't going to have the support of whole progressive base, which should be roughly 40% or so of the democratic party.

    

Edited March 4, 2020 by Annoynymous

[Forestluv]

9 minutes ago, HelluvaGuy said:

@Serotoninluv Excellent points, but there is one additional possibility for Warren, which might be the most likely one - stay neutral, which is exactly what she did in 2016. She could just call it quits and then not endorse anybody, trying to appease both the centrists and progressives.

Warren endorsed Clinton over Bernie in 2016. 

I don’t think staying neutral is tenable for Warren. If she doesn’t take a stand, she will look weak and unprincipled. 

@Annoynymous I think Bernie is the underdog now and something big needs to change so the media narrative changes and he expands his coalition. I don’t think he can bring in enough young people and new voters at this time. Imo, if Warren comes to Michigan and endorses Bernie - the narrative and momentum changes. Yet that is a big IF. . . And Joe will be Joe. He looks confused as he wanders and stumbles around. There is a reason his campaign has not made him very visible. Now he is in the limelight and people will seen that the Biden of 2008 is not the Biden of 2020. He is past his prime. However, a lot of people may give him a pass because he is a nice guy that they like. 

[legendary]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

What Bernie supporters and progrrssives need to understand is that they are in a bubble. The majority of the Americans are not progressive, they are moderate. "The establishment" is not just the corporations, media, and Washington, it is most of the citizens as well. The media is establishment precisely because that's what most people pay to watch, not because the media is somehow overriding the will of the people. The will of the people is just not very bright and the media reflects that. The establishment IS the people. That's what progessives are in denial about.

Gotta disagree here. Poll after poll has shown, that when people are asked about which issues they support, they overwhelmingly come out in favor of the so-called ´progressive´ agenda: Universal health care, gun control, no endless wars, legalizing marijuana, etc.

It's just that when these policies come with the added label of ´far-left´ or `democratic socialism`, that the media narrative comes into the picture and skewers everything.

I genuinely think the current electorate resonates with Bernie's policies. the problem is the media narrative, combined with all the misinformation and fear-mongering.

Bernie has a serious marketing problem, he in fact a moderate and Biden is the far-right candidate. Additionally, if you are an anti-establishment candidate, why play nice with the establishment and call Joe Biden `a good person` and ´a good friend´?  Why be so soft? Even if Bernie gets elected, will the establishment really let him pass all his ideas if he continues to be nice? 

This is the equivalent of plugging 2mg 5-MeO and hoping for ego death. You've got to go all-in and increase the dose man!

[Preety_India]

People underestimate Trump so much. When Trump wins, he wins bigly. 

The joke was on the people who thought Trump would get impeached. 

Well that didn't happen. 

Anyone who thinks Biden has a better chance over Bernie and Trump might as well start believing that a unicorn will become president. 

Bernie is poplar obviously. But let's see how he matches up with Trump in the debate. 

Look at the trend. Bush was in office for both terms and so was Obama. Trump didn't do anything for it to be different. 

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Preety_India

[HelluvaGuy]

@Serotoninluv Warren endorsed Clinton after she had become the presumtive nominee. 

[Thewritersunion]

That’s it! I’m starting Time Angel.

the world or fiction needs more nuance and progressiveness.

[Annoynymous]

@Serotoninluv I understand. Still i think Biden can not win against trump. If he becomes nominee and enters into presidential debates againt Trump, then Trump is just gonna tear him apart unless he somehow brings back his "prime time".