Buttigieg has dropped out, will it help Biden?

[Annoynymous]

Mayor Pete did unexpectedly well in Iowa and New Hampshire. There were no rumours of him dropping out two says ago, but he suddenly dropped out yesterday! Is it to help Biden,  who was suffering terribly before south carolina,  to compete against Bernie Sanders? 

If it is that, then i must say the establishment is in panic mode. They are going to do whatever they can to stop the accelerating campain of Bernie.  

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Annoynymous

[outlandish]

I haven't been following things that closely, but it seemed to me pretty obvious that he didn't have much hope of winning the campaign, so I expect he simply recognized this and dropped out. It's really expensive to run a campaign, and probably very tiring, so if there's 0% chance of winning, why proceed? I don't think it needs a complex explanation (but who knows, there easily could be more going on here)

I didn't realize he was gay until quite a ways into this dem race. I think that's pretty cool that we live in a society now where his openly homosexual orientation wasn't the main headline, it was just a secondary fact. Things have come a long way over the last couple of decades on that front.

[HelluvaGuy]

It's hard to say. It certainly may help Biden in the sense that now, he can reach the 15% viability threshold in majority of the states, cutting into Bernie's delegate grab. 

At the same time, according to the most recent Morning Consult poll, plurality of Pete's voters list their second choice as Bernie, so who knows what will end up happening. 

[Vladz0r]

Statistically they have polled Pete Buttigieg voters to see what their 2nd choice is. It looks to be an even split between Bernie and Biden, tied at the top % breakdown, followed by the rest of the percent going to everyone else.  Here were the stats from SurveyUSA / Political Polls

26% Biden
26% Sanders
15% Bloomberg
18% Warren
8% Klobucchar
3% Gabbard

So, we may see close to this even split across the Super Tuesday states, or we could see a bit of a synergy effect where it boosts Bernie big in certain states or Biden big in other states. I mean I would think a lot of people default to Establishment candidates as more of these non-Bernie people drop out, but I'm not really sure. See, Bloomberg has also kind of hit a ceiling with the national polling, and Biden has no campaigns running in the Super Tuesday states. It's kind of a tossup. I'd be surprised if Biden won more than 4 states tomorrow, but not surprised if he wins exactly 4 states, since he's projected to get at least 2-3, if not 4. Bernie's polling in Cali could swing the entire thing, though.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Vladz0r

[Forestluv]

Based on second choice polling, Biden and Sanders will get a 2-3% bump and the others will get a 1-2% bump. 

Yet importantly, for Super Tuesday this bump could help Biden reach the 15% threshold in several states. Candidates under the 15% threshold pretty much get shut out of delegates. Since Sanders is already above the 15% threshold in all the states, a 2-3% bump won't help him much. Yet a 2-3% bump would be enough to help Biden reach 15% and get him considerably more delegates.  

[Vladz0r]

1 minute ago, Serotoninluv said:

Based on second choice polling, Biden and Sanders will get a 2-3% bump and the others will get a 1-2% bump. 

Yet importantly, for Super Tuesday this bump could help Biden reach the 15% threshold in several states. Candidates under the 15% threshold pretty much get shut out of delegates. Since Sanders is already above the 15% threshold in all the states, a 2-3% bump won't help him much. Yet a 2-3% bump would be enough to help Biden reach 15% and get him considerably more delegates.  

Yeah this would suck @ss, honestly. Bernie needs closer to a majority of votes than a plurality of votes in order to possibly avoid a contested Democratic Convention. It'll be great if everyone's under 15% in California. Well, only 35% of the delegates pledged at the state level operate under this "full sweep" assumption, so, say, if Bernie gets 45% and everyone else is sub-15%, the state level delegates all side with Bernie. The others are district based, and would be pledged under that 45%. In a hypothetical example where a state is worth 100 delegates, I suppose the math would work like this: 0.45(65) + 1.00(35) = 64.25% of total delegates. Still a huge boost.

[Annoynymous]

Amy Klobuchar just dropped out of the race and planning to endorse Joe Biden.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51710945

Edited March 2, 2020 by Annoynymous

[Annoynymous]

@Serotoninluv I don't undersand the 15% threshold. How does it help a candidate? Can you explain it a bit? 

[Vladz0r]

1 minute ago, Annoynymous said:

@Serotoninluv I don't undersand the 15% threshold. How does it help a candidate? Can you explain it a bit? 

I just explained the threshold thing in my post. Good to know Amy dropped out.

[HelluvaGuy]

Amy dropped out and is endorsing Biden. 

The centrist vote is quickly gathering around Biden and Warren has no plans to quit the race. This doesn't look good.

[Leo Gura]

I suspect Pete may have struck a backroom deal with Biden to be his VP. The centrists are gonna quickly consolidate now. It's gonna be Bernie vs Biden.

[Annoynymous]

@Leo Gura things were looking optimistic for bernie before south carolina. Now it is going to be an interesting contest. Rumors are spreading that, even if bernie wins majority of the delegates, superdelegates will steal the nomination away from him. If that really happens, then the democratic party will be digging their own graves.   

[Forestluv]

Klobuchar was about to lose her home state of Minnesota tomorrow - especially after BLM shut down her rally last night. 

Losing one’s home state is extremely embarrassing for a politician and would stick with her the rest of her political career. 

Bernie and Ilhan Omar are rallying in Minnesota tonight and now have the momentum to win the state. 

Warren faces a similar prospect in her homestate if Massachusetts. If she loses Mass. tomorrow and stays in, it becomes obvious she is playing spoiler. I think Warren has already done serious damage to her image as a progressive.   

 

[Forestluv]

20 minutes ago, Annoynymous said:

Rumors are spreading that, even if bernie wins majority of the delegates, superdelegates will steal the nomination away from him. If that really happens, then the democratic party will be digging their own graves.   

If Bernie gets the majority of delegates, it’s game over. 

The question is if Bernie gets a plurality of the votes. Then, the superdelegates can jump in on the second ballot and give it to Biden or Bloomberg. Yet this would fracture the democratic party, nearly guarantee a win for Trump and cause serious damage to the democratic patty for at least a generation.

It’s hard to imagine why they would destroy themselves in this scenario, yet thats what grasping to piwer and survival looks like. They know its the end of business as usual withe a president Sanders. 

[Leo Gura]

I don't think Bernie will win a majority. It will be a contested convention and the establishment will try to do whatever they can to get Biden to win.

[Annoynymous]

It is better to have Four more years of Trump than to have a centrist back at the office. Establishment was lost in 2016 and they will loose again if they wanna steal the nomination.

[Annoynymous]

@Serotoninluv if she decides to stay after super tuesday, she is not a true progressive. Period.

A true progressive will favor those who have better chance at winning rather then pursuing their egoic desire. If she loose in Massachusetts,  which most likely she is gonna loose, and decides to stay, then surely she will be doing that for the purpose of hurting Bernie's campaign. 

[Preety_India]

American politics is really in a deep state of chaos and downturn. 

A lot of it is invested in money. Heavily rigged. 

A political revolution is needed to branch out of it. 

Currently none of the candidates are admirable. The picture is dismal to the point that a hope for a powerful authentic president is lost. 

America is politically in a crisis because both parties are invested in regenerating a vote Bank rather than solve issues. 

The whole election process is not completely fair. Even a small mistake from a candidate is victory for another. It's like a toss game, the outcome highly unpredictable, not in the best interests of the public, involvement of multiple third parties that totally interfere the outcome of the entire election. Good candidates drop out of frustration. Bad candidates might have more campaign money. 

American elections and politics is at the climax of hopelessness. 

They to reinvent the entire process constitutionally and make it fair, objective, transparent and functional for the government to sustain under its weight. 

 

 

[Lelouch Lamperouge]

Sigh, things are changing rapidly, the system is indeed rigged against Bernie

[Lelouch Lamperouge]