Betting on Democrats winning in 2020

[Ferdi Le]

Hey Folks,

I recently checked out the odds of the 2020 election and apparantly you can double your money with betting on a democratic victory.

I think a democratic victory is more likely than that and hence think it might be a bett worth taking.

Some of you probably have to modus operandi of thinking that betting is low-consicousness. I contemplated this as well, but concluded: Why not make a buck out of Trump being defeated in 2020?

I can think of worse things to do quite frankly.

The odds of Republicans winning is 1,7. So they see a democratic victory at less than 50%. I think that is a underestimation and would say they carry 2020 with a probability of 70%. Remember, Trumps won some rust belt states with only a couple thousand votes.

What do you think?

[Arcangelo]

Are you a shill for an oddsmaker? Smart money is on Trump sir.

 

Arc

Edited December 29, 2019 by Arcangelo
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[Annoynymous]

I think it will be to fast to predict the outcome of 2020 election. Much more thing to happen.

Election is not about low vs high conscious. It's more about majority. If 51% of the people decides to vote for trump then he will get elected, no matter how low conscious and evil he may seem.

I think the election system needs to be changed. Majority rule is not always rule of just. We have seen many governments in many countries where evil people  got elected and did a lot of vile things including committing atrocities against humanity.

On the other hand, people's consciousness is reflected by the leader they elect. From that point of view, i am not sure whether we are ready for systematic change in electoral process.    

[Arcangelo]

1 minute ago, Annoynymous said:

I think it will be to fast to predict the outcome of 2020 election.

Well, the guys that make their living out of predicting the future say that Trump is gonna win.

I predict that Trump is gonna win.

 

Arc

 

[Annoynymous]

@Arcangelo if you wanna rely on fortune teller, go for it.

I don't know about astrology, but i think it's essential to discuss policies and systematic changes when it comes to politics.

[Arcangelo]

1 hour ago, Annoynymous said:

if you wanna rely on fortune teller, go for it

Dude I am talking about Vegas bookmakers.

[DoubleYou]

We'll see. It all really depends on the democratic candidate. But Trump couldn't even win the popular vote against Hillary, and I don't know any democrat that actually liked Hillary, lol. 

Then again, he's a nice representation of what a huge chunk of the US is all about. So it wouldn't be too bad to let them have another good look at themselves for four more years. That might be the only way to get people fed up with all the polarisation and childish left-right politics. Real possibility for radical systemic change should hopefully be the result of all this.

Or it could all backfire even more. It's hard to say. 

[Vido]

I like Yang. Hope he wins

[Bno]

@DoubleYou The majority of the people of this country wanted Bernie Sanders, that's why he's been the most popular US candidate for 3 years. The DNC stole the presidency from him.

[Leo Gura]

@Ferdi Le It's a good bet to take. Odds-makers aren't doing any deep political analysis. They are just conforming to past results.

Go back to 2015 and find the Vegas odds on Trump winning. Case in point.

Steve Bannon himself laughed off the idea of Trump's reelection. Serious Republicans privately understand the deep hole Trump has put them all in. He is digging all their graves. They are playing violin on the deck of a sinking Titanic.

[DivineSoda]

Since you seem inclined to do it, regardless of what is said here, I would say go for it. Even if you lose, the lesson to be learned will be more valuable than if you won the money. 

[Spiral]

I’d restrain from gambling if I were you. It’s bad for you even if you win.

[Arcangelo]

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Odds-makers aren't doing any deep political analysis. They are just conforming to past results.

IDK how deep their political analysis are, but I am pretty sure it's deeper than yours or mine, because they got supercomputers with super simulators. They are doing their job like they always do (a good one that makes their bosses millions). They have lines on anything you can imagine. They get paid to predict the future, and they are really good at it. (They know things you don't)

Joe Biden remains the second favourite for the US 2020 Election at $7.5,

Donald Trump $1.91

These numbers are saying Trump is gonna win easily. Easy peacey. Trump is gonna win AINEC. If it was close the line on Biden would be like $2.03 or something. Book makers have literally millions of $$$ on the line. What makes you think that their aren't doing any deep political analysis?

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It's a good bet to take.

No it isn't. As I said the smart money is on Trump sir.

 

Arc

[Arcangelo]

Check it out:

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33635] DONALD TRUMP -140

 

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33638] JOE BIDEN +450

INEC if it was close Biden would be like -105 or +110 but definitely not 450

 

The reality is: The other guys don't stand a chance.

 

Arc

[Ferdi Le]

Keep in mind that Trump fooled them with massive luck. Imagine a slight increase in voter turnout for democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc.

Hillary did not visit Wisconsin once!! (after the democrats convention).

Do you really think they a doing the same strategic blunder again? Give me a break....

Trump in 2016 is like a hacker who fooled a security system. But now 4 years later, when they fixed the security gap and he just tries the same thing again, he is merely going to look like a fool.

Most Americans are sick and tired of him.

Just see how he cherrypicks every poll that favors him. Rasmussen sometimes has polls that give him a slight lead, he immediatelly tweets them. 2 days later, they see unfavorability up 6% and he ignores it. Most people see through this.

I think he could even lose Texas and Florida or Arizona if the democrats play their cards right.

The only real danger is Bloomberg running as a third party, Biden being nominated and exposed because of this Hunter story or Trumps massive financial advantge.

But then again, the bookmakers see democrats chances at below 45%, which I think is delusional.

[Ferdi Le]

@Arcangelo

I mean can you comprehend that Hillary did not visit Wisconsin at all after the convention!!!?? This is basically one of the 5 states that decided the election!

Trump can get 100% in Alabama, Montana and Wyoming. This is not of any impotance.

The democarts had a terrible candidate and completely negelected the states that ultimately decided the election. How in the world do you think Trump will pull this of again? He only won those states with a slight margin.

Without Gill Stein, Clinton would have won those without actually going there.

Now they will invest heavily AND will have a better candidate AND the green party wont sabotage as much (because removing Trump is in everyones interest).

The more I think about it, the more unrealistic #Trump2020 seems

Edited December 29, 2019 by Ferdi Le

[Arcangelo]

I don't like Trump either, but I am not blind to the reality:

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33635] DONALD TRUMP -140

 

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33638] JOE BIDEN +450

Sorry but numbers don't lie. The gap is enormous, and the election is on 2020. As I said not a chance, not even close.

 

Arc

[LordFall]

8 hours ago, Spiral said:

I’d restrain from gambling if I were you. It’s bad for you even if you win.

How so? Isn't everything in life gambling to some extent? 

[Bno]

 

30 minutes ago, Ferdi Le said:

@Arcangelo

I mean can you comprehend that Hillary did not visit Wisconsin at all after the convention!!!?? This is basically one of the 5 states that decided the election!

Trump can get 100% in Alabama, Montana and Wyoming. This is not of any impotance.

The democarts had a terrible candidate and completely negelected the states that ultimately decided the election. How in the world do you think Trump will pull this of again? He only won those states with a slight margin.

Without Gill Stein, Clinton would have won those without actually going there.

Now they will invest heavily AND will have a better candidate AND the green party wont sabotage as much (because removing Trump is in everyones interest).

The more I think about it, the more unrealistic #Trump2020 seems

Let's be a bit more objective here. More votes were taken away from Trump by the Libertarian party and a huge chunk of previous 2-times Obama voters voted for Trump, especially in those states that Hillary didn't campaign in (Wisconsi, Ohio and Michigan). Half the country didn't even go out to vote. Are we really going to conclude that the Green Party (who got an insignificant 1% of the vote) was a big contributor to Hillary's loss? 

If Trump loses in 2020, it'll be because he went up against a populist progressive Democrat, not a Hillary 2.0 who doesn't excite the country. Trump's approval ratings are currently close to 50% and that's because establishment Dems and the MSM attack him on insignificant issues that the majority of people either don't care about or it excites his base more.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Ferdi Le]

Clinton would have carried Wisconsin with Steins votes.

I would argue that the Libertarian Votes are equally from Trump and Clinton.

Remember, Clinton was largely unpopular.