Betting on Democrats winning in 2020

[Ferdi Le]

Clinton would have EASILY carried Michigan with Stein votes.

Clinton would have had 253 Electorals Votes with just a couple thousand votes more.

Trump victory is a bloody miracle.

[Bno]

@Ferdi Le I just elaborated more on my previous post. If you're going to take into account 3rd parties, you should also consider Gary Johnson who had about 4% of the total votes in MI which take away from Trump. And how is 1% more significant than the over 13% of former Obama voters that voted for Trump?

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_geoffrey_skelley/just_how_many_obama_2012_trump_2016_voters_were_there

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Ferdi Le]

Johnsons effect is not nearly as certain as Jill Steins. ALL of Stein voters would have voted for Democrats.

The same can not be argued for Johnson. I quickly looked uo a study in which they say he took votes from both parties equally.

I by no means am an expert on the rust belt.

But considering that Democrats made a MAJOR STRATEGIC BLUNDER and Trump still won by only a couple thounsand votes, makes it just extremely unlikely that it is going to happen again.

[Bno]

8 minutes ago, Ferdi Le said:

Johnsons effect is not nearly as certain as Jill Steins. ALL of Stein voters would have voted for Democrats.

The same can not be argued for Johnson. I quickly looked uo a study in which they say he took votes from both parties equally.

I by no means am an expert on the rust belt.

But considering that Democrats made a MAJOR STRATEGIC BLUNDER and Trump still won by only a couple thounsand votes, makes it just extremely unlikely that it is going to happen again.

Unless you understand the statistics from that study, you cannot accept it as a good study. One major fallacy with your assumption and the assumption from that study is that all Stein voters would've voted for Hillary. As one of those Stein voters, I would NOT have voted for Hillary. Other former Stein voters like my fiance and her father, my family members, and some close friends also said they would not have voted for Hillary either. Even some youtube pundits like Niko House and Jimmy Dore also say they wouldn't have voted for Hillary. If you go on social media, you'd see some people saying they would've or they wouldn't have. You're being too biased here.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Ferdi Le]

1 minute ago, Bno said:

Unless you understand the statistics from that study, you cannot accept it as a good study. One major fallacy with your assumption and the assumption from that study is that all Stein voters would've voted for Hillary. As one of those Stein voters, I would NOT have voted for Hillary. Other former Stein voters like my fiance and her father, my family members, and some close friends also said they would not have voted for Hillary either. If you go on social media, you'd see some people saying they would've or they wouldn't have. You're being too biased here.

Yes you are probably right. I just hope the democrats dont make such fallacies again. They have solid candidates now. I think Bernie, Yang, Warren and Buttigie would all have a solid victory.

We will see what happens

[Bno]

@Ferdi Le With Warren's recent fall and no crossover appeal and Buttigieg's virtual 0 support from black people, I don't think they stand a chance Ferdi. The only people that do stand a (good) chance are the candidates that focus on economic issues and have crossover appeal like Tulsi, Yang and Bernie.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Ferdi Le]

@Bno You think Bernie might take Yang as running mate?

I really like Yang but he would need some serious momentum to actually have a shot. His support is steady and solid, but no serious growth.

[Bno]

@Ferdi Le The DNC elects the VP after the nominee gives their suggestion. My hopes are that Bernie and the people he rallies put enough pressure on the DNC to allow him to have his uncoerced and consensual VP choice. He's mentioned in a past interview that he wants a progressive VP who is younger than him, is a minority, and of the opposite sex. The two that qualify for that are Nina Turner and Tulsi Gabbard.

I think Yang will be in Bernie's cabinet and I think he'll be great!

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Ferdi Le]

@Bno Tulsi would be amazing. I hope he remembers that she supported him 2016.

Yang being in the cabinet would be tremendous as well. He is (mainly) a one issue candidate and if he could make UBI without having to meet Putin or playing this entire Commander in Chief BS, would be a much better use of his time

[Bno]

@Ferdi Le If he doesn't remember, it's our job to remind him. I'm a little worried because Bernie has been bowing down to some things that the establishment wants that go against what his base wants and what he likely truly believes.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Bno

[Leo Gura]

It's foolish to believe that 3rd party votes could be eliminated and put into the Dem or Rep buckets. There will always be 3rd party votes, so learn to live it with it. They are always there in every election, so this argument that they should go to one or the other major candidate to reverse a loss is silly. Clinton knew Green party members wouldn't vote for her. She should have had enough margin not to need such desperate grasping at straws. She was simply an uninspiring candidate and that is why she lost.

[electroBeam]

What's funny is that pre Trump's election, half of my family members liked Trump, while the other half hated him. Now all of them like Trump and think he's doing good for America. If my family were American, more would vote for him now then before. 

[Ferdi Le]

36 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It's foolish to believe that 3rd party votes could be eliminated and put into the Dem or Rep buckets. There will always be 3rd party votes, so learn to live it with it. They are always there in every election, so this argument that they should go to one or the other major candidate to reverse a loss is silly. Clinton knew Green party members wouldn't vote for her. She should have had enough margin not to need such desperate grasping at straws. She was simply an uninspiring candidate and that is why she lost.

My point was that winning Wisconsin was not necessarily Trumps strength but the Democrats weakness. Of course there will always be some 3rd party voters, but Steins votes quintupled from 2012 to 2016, which means that Democrats did lose some of their voters to the Green Party and it was not just the regular Green Turnout.

Which underlies my initial point that Trump win in Wisconsin was due to a combination of strategic blunders from the democrats and if they correct them, they will be able to carry those states again.

[Bno]

@Ferdi Le But you could also say they lost more votes to Trump and abstaining lol

[Tanz]

Based on history and what is happening presently, the DNC seems to prefer their own lapdogs or Trump because they are all shills.  If that is the case Trump will beat them.

Id give them a 75% chance of winning right now.  

Against Bernie and Yang, the odds of Trump winning will be closer to 45-50%

Bernie will get a lot of people that didn't vote for anyone in the last election, while Yang will get some Trump supporters to go over to him.  

Edited December 30, 2019 by Tanz

[purerogue]

Trump will win, they need very strong candidate to even have a chance. 

[Leo Gura]

15 hours ago, Ferdi Le said:

My point was that winning Wisconsin was not necessarily Trumps strength but the Democrats weakness. Of course there will always be some 3rd party voters, but Steins votes quintupled from 2012 to 2016, which means that Democrats did lose some of their voters to the Green Party and it was not just the regular Green Turnout.

Which underlies my initial point that Trump win in Wisconsin was due to a combination of strategic blunders from the democrats and if they correct them, they will be able to carry those states again.

14 hours ago, Bno said:

@Ferdi Le But you could also say they lost more votes to Trump and abstaining lol

All of that is explained simply by Hilary being an uninspiring and unlikable candidate. She's just not a very likable person and her policies were bland.

Many people vote simply based on personality, likability, and overall vibe. They are not doing any sophisticated analysis of anything. It's all by gut feel. Hilary's gut feel was bad. I voted for her, but I wasn't excited about it. I think this was the case for most people who voted for her. Trump had excited fools voting for him.

[SerpaeTetra]

21 hours ago, Arcangelo said:

Check it out:

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33635] DONALD TRUMP -140

 

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
[33638] JOE BIDEN +450

INEC if it was close Biden would be like -105 or +110 but definitely not 450

 

The reality is: The other guys don't stand a chance.

 

Arc

You don't understand the odds.  The line for Democratic vs. Republican candidate to win odds is actually something like -110 and -120 respectively, so vegas thinks its just over 50% for the Republican candidate.  Biden is +450 (Sanders and Warren have similiar odds) because he has to beat all the other democrats plus Trump.

 

I think it depends largely on the economy.  If there is a recession before election time, I think Democrats have a good chance.

[Arcangelo]

3 minutes ago, SerpaeTetra said:

You don't understand the odds.  The line for Democratic vs. Republican candidate to win odds is actually something like -110 and -120 respectively, so vegas thinks its just over 50% for the Republican candidate.  Biden is +450 (Sanders and Warren have similiar odds) because he has to beat all the other democrats plus Trump.

HAHA! I understand the odds really well sir

Check this out

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - WINNING PARTY
[33632] REPUBLICAN PARTY -135

-140 is really close to -135, basically the same.

 

Arc

[SerpaeTetra]

7 minutes ago, Arcangelo said:

HAHA! I understand the odds really well sir

Check this out

TNT 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - WINNING PARTY
[33632] REPUBLICAN PARTY -135

-140 is really close to -135, basically the same.

 

Arc

Even at that number its something like 55%, so not sure what you mean by "the other guys don't stand a chance".