Mark my words; Trump 2020 is a real possibility

[Forestluv]

19 hours ago, CreamCat said:

I read that trump stopped separating children from their parents after being criticized by many people.

I think you might be referring to Trump's initiative to deport undocumented children that are dependent on medical assistance. This didn't go over very well and they quickly changed direction. Yet the child separation and cages continues, to my understanding. To be fair, Obama also did child separation and caging - he also had a very aggressive deportation program - in an effort to appease Republicans. Yet Obama kept in on the down-low and I think if it become a mainstream issue which angered progressives, he would have changed direction. In contrast, Trump is emphasizing his child separation and caging. He has had high-level cabinet members, including the vice-president - visit. They took lots of footage of the caging - highlighting caged men. My sense is that this plays well with his base. 

[CreamCat]

1 hour ago, Serotoninluv said:

Yet the child separation and cages continues

What's the logic behind it? To piss them off and make them leave?

[Forestluv]

29 minutes ago, CreamCat said:

What's the logic behind it? To piss them off and make them leave?

I would imagine it sends a message to asylum seekers in central america: Don't come to the U.S. I would also imagine it sends a message to Trump's base that tough action is being taken to protect his base from "scary" asylum seekers from Central America. 

[CreamCat]

Just now, Serotoninluv said:

"scary" asylum seekers from Central America.

How scary are they? Are they gun-toting gangsters?

[Dodo]

On 26/09/2019 at 10:50 AM, Robi Steel said:

Trumps popularity polls are now equal to the ones of obama at the same time of his presidency. I have seen a lot more people in these recent years undoubtedly questioning traditional media reporting and credibility. the democrats could have taken their chance to recollect themselves and find some ground and build up what they actually are about and what actually matters. Instead, they made fools of themselves obsessing over trump until people got sick of it. 

I would not want more trump but maybe it will be the lesser evil for many people to vote for. There's gonna be that unpredictable block that doesn't necessarily show in the polls. 
 

 im not trying to offend, just the whole pictue

its not all bad btw

The bubble will pop on Trump's watch, the deep state will make sure of that if not the reality of incoming recession. The chances of him getting re-elected are 38% based on a betting site (if I remember the figure correctly), that's not very high compared to other presidents.

He does have popularity, and that's probably the main reason he got elected in the first place. People want to be entertained, they don't care about politics. It's the guy from TV, let's get him on the throne. 

But the bloodbath is coming and Trump will take the blame for it, even though he is not the one who caused it, but the Fed printing money at an alarming rate. Well I'm not an expert, so maybe Trump has a hand in it as well 
  

[tenta]

Biden won't excite anyone to vote, and if it comes down to Bernie vs Trump, people aren't really supporting trump but free college for all, free medicare for all etc. will excite people to go out and vote, I doubt trump will win 2020 despite all of the crazy vocal supporters who don't question anything he does and are trying to be ignorant

Here are some things that would help towards trump losing: 1. A message of "Trump is incredibly, incredibly privileged and has lived one of the most pleasurable, amazing lives you could possibly imagine... are you... maybe, just maybe a bit mad or jealous? Then don't vote trump"

2. Exposing how little trump cares about others and how much he would fuck you over if he could

3. Focusing on the biggest blunders he has made, and listing them, while ignoring the smaller ones

Edited October 6, 2019 by tenta

[Apparition of Jack]

@tenta If Bernie gets the nomination, expect to see all of this sort of stuff come out. Trump's campaign won't stand a chance under the flurry of sheer hypocrisy and vileness Bernie's campaign will expose of Trump.

[tenta]

 

[Bodigger]

@tenta Any thoughts of Clinton coming out.....

[whoareyou]

Trump is fine, according to Moody's election model - he will win easily!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/moodys-trump-on-his-way-to-an-easy-2020-win-if-economy-holds-up.html

My intuition says the same. Don't let your personal dislike of Trump get in the way of seeing things for what they are.

[Leo Gura]

7 hours ago, whoareyou said:

Trump is fine, according to Moody's election model - he will win easily!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/moodys-trump-on-his-way-to-an-easy-2020-win-if-economy-holds-up.html

My intuition says the same. Don't let your personal dislike of Trump get in the way of seeing things for what they are.

Lol

[Forestluv]

8 hours ago, whoareyou said:

Trump is fine, according to Moody's election model - he will win easily!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/moodys-trump-on-his-way-to-an-easy-2020-win-if-economy-holds-up.html

My intuition says the same. Don't let your personal dislike of Trump get in the way of seeing things for what they are.

Moodey’s is a corporate financial institution and their model is based on one variable. The one that matters to them: money.

“Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation”

 

[whoareyou]

4 hours ago, Serotoninluv said:

Moodey’s is a corporate financial institution and their model is based on one variable. The one that matters to them: money.

“Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation”

 

Yes and that's a big factor, is it not? 

Moodey's model has been accurate in every year but 2016.

The track record speaks for itself.

 

[Robi Steel]

@Leo Gura

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Lol

Nice argument

[Forestluv]

6 hours ago, whoareyou said:

Yes and that's a big factor, is it not? 

It is one of many factors, yet the only factor Moodey's seems to care about. 

The perception of a good economy is necessary for Trump's reelection, yet it is not sufficient. 

[Bodigger]

Taking in what I have learned from the debates last night, I don't think the country as a whole is ready for Biden, Warren, or Sanders.  They are fine with the Dem base but I think Buttigieg is making a move toward the center and this may prove well for him since Biden is swaying to the left and looking a little wobbly.  Much can happen in the next four months.

[roar]

When are you Americans going to realize that you have no real left in your politics?  Even Bernie is middle-ground in a more developed political spectrum like most West-European countries have.

Observed from outside, the US is turning into Russian style oligarchy.  All industries moving towards monopolies, and forcing them upon the rest of the world.  One of the few good aspects of Trumps reign, is that  global respect for the empire has fallen.  It wont be as easy to dominate the globe as before.  A lot of goodwill has been lost.

[tenta]

A lot of people will vote for trump because they haven't seen anything that bad happen for his 4 years (to them), it will also depend a lot on the democrat candidate going up against him

[Bodigger]

1 hour ago, roar said:

Observed from outside, the US is turning into Russian style oligarchy.  All industries moving towards monopolies, and forcing them upon the rest of the world.  One of the few good aspects of Trumps reign, is that  global respect for the empire has fallen.  It wont be as easy to dominate the globe as before.  A lot of goodwill has been lost.

Are you saying that the globe was easy to dominate prior to the empire (U.S.) falling?  Please explain.

[Bodigger]

22 minutes ago, tenta said:

A lot of people will vote for trump because they haven't seen anything that bad happen for his 4 years (to them), it will also depend a lot on the democrat candidate going up against him

What bad things have you seen in which others have not?

I agree about the candidate going up against Trump.  However, the candidates at this point are far more left than any in the past and I don't think that will fare well for the Dems.