What Will Happen In Hong Kong?

[Rilles]

An all out war? Looking grim. Stage Red China only knows using force to get what they want it seems. Seems sad... Ive spent alot of time in Hong Kong... would be sad to see it ”ruined” by dictatorship. 

[Forestluv]

The stakes look really for the people in Hong Kong. If they lose, they will a lot of sovereignty. China is now referring to protestors as demotic terrorists and brought tanks to the border. Protestors shutting down the airport seems like they are desperately reaching out for international support. They are getting international coverage, yet I’m not seeing much support.

The extradition bill seems like an obvious power grab that threatens agreed-upon sovereignty of Hong Kong. I’m curious why international leaders haven’t voiced more concern and support for Hong Kong. Hong Kong is an international economic center and travel hub. And it seems like  situation to take moral high ground. Are international leaders concerned about damaging Chinese relations and retaliation from China?

 

[outlandish]

3 hours ago, Serotoninluv said:

Are international leaders concerned about damaging Chinese relations and retaliation from China?

Yes, I think this is exactly it. Plus the guy in the white house seems to admire dictators and dictatorships, and the USA sets the tone for global politics to some extent. So the timing is exactly right for China to make moves on Hong Kong's special status.

[Forestluv]

@outlandish Yea, China seems primed for a red-level opportunistic takeover. I wonder if China has been licking their chops on this for a while and sense this is their opportunity to strike. McConnell and Pelosi issued strong statements against China adding in there will be consequences of China invades. Yet, Trump refereed to the protests as a “riot” - which plays to China’s narrative that the protestors are a violent mob. Trump’s most measured response was both sides-ism. 

What I find interesting is that Trump is pissed off at China over failed trade negotiations and entered a trade war that could harm the economy, farmers and his re-election chances. Yet he seems ok when China acts as an authoritarian. He could be using this to put even more harm and stigma onto China. He could frame it that China is doing crooked business with the U.S. AND they are immoral tyrants that harm their own people. Yet Trump compartmentalizes the two - China is an economic adversary, yet a fellow authoritarian. . . .It’s like two schoolyard bullies fighting with each other. One bully says “Hang on while I go kick that nerd’s ass and take his lunch money. I’l be back in five minutes to fight you some more”. The other bully is like “ok, whatever”.

[outlandish]

Trump doesn't want to complain too much about authoritarianism, it could come back to haunt him when he seeks his third term in office.

[Leo Gura]

China is more Blue than Red I'd say. Hong Kong is more Orange.

It's gonna be tricky for HK because China will not let them be independent as they used to be under British rule.

[MikeB]

I saw some articles on it. Didn't read to much into it. They will change/evolve. It's nice to see.

[Rilles]

37 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

China is more Blue than Red I'd say. Hong Kong is more Orange.

It's gonna be tricky for HK because China will not let them be independent as they used to be under British rule.

I think the leaders action are very Red, do as I say or I will invade you. At its very best China is Blue/Orange.

[Leo Gura]

@Rilles You have to see it from China's POV. They are trying to unify a nation. They can't do that if everyone goes their own way. Blue is nationalism, which is what China's up to. They want to build a cohesive national Chinese identity. Of course this doesn't just happen willingly. People resist and China cracks down.

Not saying China is the good guy here, but understand why they do what they do. They do it out of love.

[Rilles]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

@Rilles You have to see it from China's POV. They are trying to unify a nation. They can't do that if everyone goes their own way. Blue is nationalism, which is what China's up to. They want to build a cohesive national Chinese identity. Of course this doesn't just happen willingly. People resist and China cracks down.

Not saying China is the good guy here, but understand why they do what they do. They do it out of love.

Thats a very good point! 

[Forestluv]

A good video on the conflict between mainland china and hong kong

 

[outlandish]

1 hour ago, Etherial Cat said:

The smart Hong Kongers I know all left few years ago.

Do you think we'll see more exodus out of HK now?

[Rilles]

7 minutes ago, Etherial Cat said:

From their POV, it might be smart to encourage/not stop an exodus of HKongers and flood the city with mainlanders to make it easier to control.

What a tremendous insight!

[Leo Gura]

My ex-girlfriend was from HK. HK people consider themselves very different from mainland Chinese. HK is basically like its own country with a unique culture. Or at least it was.

HK culture is much more Western due to a century of British rule. And the Hong Kongers like it that way.

[Leo Gura]

Like a big amoeba swallowing a baby amoeba.

[montecristo]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

My ex-girlfriend was from HK. HK people consider themselves very different from mainland Chinese. HK is basically like its own country with a unique culture. Or at least it was.

HK culture is much more Western due to a century of British rule. And the Hong Kongers like it that way.

HK girls are the prettiest in asia, if ya'll havent been. Leo has excellent taste

[Marks199]

"By seeking to tighten its control over Hong Kong, China has only succeeded in losing the hearts and minds of Hong Kongers," says Kevin Yam, a political commentator.

On Hong Kong, China should retreat to advance

Hong Kongers have learned that restraint is met by those in power tightening their grip, even more, says Kevin Yam, a political commentator

Open Future

Aug 22nd, 2019

This is a by-invitation commentary in a series on “Hong Kong’s Future,” part of The Economist’s Open Future initiative, which aims to foster a global conversation across the ideological spectrum on vital issues. You can comment here or on Facebook and Twitter. More articles can be found at Economist.com/openfuture

IN THE Gospel of Luke, Jesus is reported to have said: “If you cling to your life, you will lose it, and if you let your life go, you will save it.” (Luke 17:33)

Now substitute the words “your life” with “Hong Kong”. That just about tells the story of how China created the conditions for the seemingly unstoppable protest movement gripping Hong Kong in the past few months, and how it can bring Hong Kong back to its fold.

In the first years after it resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997, China, wisely, took a mostly hands-off approach. In return, Hong Kongers generally viewed China, and more specifically its central government, positively. Even when 500,000 Hong Kongers participated in a protest in 2003 against a proposed anti-subversion law, the public mostly blamed the Hong Kong Government rather than China’s central government. The legislation was duly shelved. Hong Kongers did not keep protesting for more human rights or democratic guarantees, and instead quietly resumed their lives and the city returned to normality.

However, China failed to recognize or respect that gesture of goodwill from the people of Hong Kong. Instead, Chinese leaders set off down a path that led them to the present confrontation.

After the 2003 protest, China quietly stepped up efforts to meddle in Hong Kong politics. At a grassroots level, China cultivated local figures and helped them to take over various community-based bodies. Such bodies enjoy useful clout. They control who has access to community facilities, from housing estate noticeboards to meeting halls (hint: this is generally not good news for pro-democracy community activists), and can provide pro-China politicians with abundant resources for community events and election campaigns.

At the level of territory-wide politics, China also poured money into pro-China political parties and the setting up of multiple policy think-tanks. Meanwhile, the business sector was pressed by China into ceasing or reducing donations to pro-democracy parties or groups.

These interventions gradually shut out opposition voices from local communities, as well as from the formal political process. The democratic opposition’s lack of resources also deprived them of the ability to conduct substantive policy research, making it difficult for them to offer meaningful alternative visions for Hong Kong.

China has continued this tactic of tightening controls after big protests. In 2012 hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers protested against any attempt to impose mainland-Chinese style patriotic education in the school curriculum. The curriculum changes were shelved, and again protesters offered an olive branch by ending the protests, rather than pushing for further guarantees and assurances. The Hong Kong Government’s response? They offered significant funding to schools that were willing voluntarily to adopt a patriotic curriculum.

Chinese leaders set off down a path that led them to the present confrontation

And in 2014, hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers participated in a 79-day occupation of roads in central business districts, in protest against China’s decision to restrict Hong Kong’s democratic development. The leaders of the protests repeatedly called on protesters to refrain from violence. This restraint was ultimately “rewarded” with zero movements on democratic development, mass disqualifications of anti-establishment figures from public office and the prosecution of several of the leaders of the protests.

That brings us to the current protests. They started with demands to withdraw a draft piece of legislation which would have allowed for the extradition of individuals from Hong Kong to China to face trial in courts controlled by the Communist Party. They have now snowballed into a movement against police brutality and in favor of full democracy.

Millions of Hong Kongers have participated in the movement, which did not end even after Hong Kong’s government suspended the draft extradition legislation and declared it “dead”. Hong Kongers have learned their lesson. They know that whenever they protest with moderation and with restraint, the response from those in power has been to ignore or to circumvent their demands, and then to tighten the noose further on Hong Kong’s political diversity and freedoms.

By seeking to tighten its control over Hong Kong, China has only succeeded in losing the hearts and minds of Hong Kongers. This is a pity. Hong Kong’s remaining freedoms and rule of law mean that it still is an important financial and economic window to the world for China. And some of China’s ideas over the years for integrating Hong Kong further into the Chinese economy have arguably made commercial sense. Unfortunately but understandably, Hong Kongers’ perceptions of those ideas have been poisoned by suspicions that behind them lurks an attempt to erode Hong Kong’s autonomy and distinctiveness.

By seeking to tighten its control over Hong Kong, China has only succeeded in losing the hearts and minds of Hong Kongers

Against this background, when it comes to Hong Kong’s current situation, few want to see the Chinese military or paramilitary police being deployed in Hong Kong to crush the protests. Most Hong Kongers are also realistic enough to know that China will not grant democracy to Hong Kong any time soon.

Beyond that, however, it matters little how the current protests end, whether it be through attrition or some intervention that stops short of the deployment of mainland forces. The tensions between China’s strangling of Hong Kong’s freedoms and autonomy on the one hand and Hong Kongers’ resentment on the other will remain unresolved.

Fundamentally, what Hong Kong needs is for China gradually to reverse years of ever-tightening control over Hong Kong’s community, social and political affairs. Doing so would ensure that Hong Kongers feel more, rather than less, of a sense of belonging to China. And with that, Hong Kong and mainland China can work more co-operatively as an integrated economic team, without this being resisted by Hong Kongers. A dynamic, open, confident Hong Kong that is comfortable with its place within China would be a win for Hong Kong, China, and the world.

Alas, China’s recent actions suggest that it is, if anything, tightening its grip even further. That is bad news. Some might say that it goes against Chinese history for rulers to loosen controls. That is incorrect. Two of the most highly regarded rulers in Chinese history were the Emperors Wen and Jing of the Han Dynasty, who governed with a light touch and who decentralized power. Historical annals used the phrase “resting together with their people” to praise these emperors’ approach to governance. Hong Kong could do with some of that now.

________________

Kevin Yam is a Hong Kong lawyer and political commentator.

The views expressed in this article are his own and do not represent those of his employer or any organizations to which he may belong. 

From the economist.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Marks199

[RareGodzilla]

I doubt that Hong Kong has much chance. Hong Kong's independent government is only temporary according to "One country two systems". HK can't do much since it has no military. I doubt that any other great power would risk it's trade relationship with china for it. 

I think that Republic of China (Taiwan) has a relatively better chance for maintaining it's de-facto sovereignty. Since they have an active military and a geographical advantage. Amphibious assault on that level would be very costly.  But it strongly depends on the will of the Taiwan's people for independence.