PurpleTree

What is the US really trying to achieve with all those tariffs?

121 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, Lyubov said:

What’s even sadder is half of them probably voted for Trump and most of them would vote for Trump again 

If Trump had lost, Ukraine would now have long-range missiles and the recruitment age in Ukraine would have been lowered to 18, moving us toward an escalating war with Russia, with millions of possible victims. The US's problem doesn't seem to be just Trump; it's that it can't live without conflict; it needs it to maintain its status and economic level. Trump is trying to make the war a trade war, but he doesn't seem to know what he's doing. It's impossible to know what will happen next week.

14 hours ago, Raze said:

was China I wouldn’t tariff the US but rather threaten countries that trade with the US but rely more on China with tariffs unless they tariffed the US, and offer them extremely generous trade deals if they maintain the tariffs.

I think that china overreacted. They should have shown calm, but who knows, it's a very unexpected situation, US aggressive as always but in a different way

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15 hours ago, Raze said:

If I was China I wouldn’t tariff the US but rather threaten countries that trade with the US but rely more on China with tariffs unless they tariffed the US, and offer them extremely generous trade deals if they maintain the tariffs.

That's what Trump is hoping to do. That’s why they did a blanket tariff on everyone - to gain leverage in forcing countries to pick a side and isolate China. If China alone gets tariffed they just bypass those through middle men countries as like Vietnam etc. The US would like to choke off those options.

15 hours ago, Raze said:

I think China miscalculated. Trump realized he has more leverage if he gets the rest of the world closer to his side and isolates China.

Trump and his camp miscalculated. Hence the pause - don't let them tell you this is a win. 

Bloomberg - ''Scott Bessent, the man who helped George Soros break the Bank of England in 1992, can also sow chaos at the People's Bank of China.''

Lol, all I saw was finance bro's crying about something breaking in the bond market. Hence, the much needed pause to re-assess their ''containment'' strategy.

https://www.ft.com/content/15547313-06ed-4de8-92f2-ca554aee698f

''The market is rapidly de-dollarizing. It is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved. In a typical crisis environment the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base. This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines. Dynamics here seem to be very different: the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves.

We wrote a few weeks ago that US administration policy is encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity. We are now seeing this play out in real-time at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated. It remains to be seen how orderly this process can remain. A credit event in the global financial system that threatens the provision of short-term dollar liquidity is the point of greatest vulnerability which would turn dollar dynamics more positive.''  
- George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank

IMG_6433.jpeg

Edited by zazen

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11 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Trump's weakness is that at the end of the day I think he really wants to be loved.

Putin has no such weakness.

This is really the only thing that might save America.

LOVE wins after all :D

LOL. DT's version of love is get in line to kiss my rear. Conscripting groupies is a far cry from love. Putin I reckon has a deeper metaphysical understanding of love. For example, Lovely Odious Viewed Equal. Take each first letter.

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Putins weakness seems that he seems paranoid and also doesn’t allow opposing views around him. And also his looks.  

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I thought Russia was doing good before Putin's midlife crisis. Wouldn't Europe and the world have just continued opening their arms to them? I don't see why not. Hell, with Trump crashing the u.s. Russia could've easily gained more if putin wasn't an egomaniac.

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23 minutes ago, Elliott said:

I thought Russia was doing good before Putin's midlife crisis. Wouldn't Europe and the world have just continued opening their arms to them? I don't see why not. Hell, with Trump crashing the u.s. Russia could've easily gained more if putin wasn't an egomaniac.

Putin could have just kept destabilising the west with his Shenanigans. I mean he’s done it for decades and is still doing it but now he’s also stuck in a war.

 

Which speaks to another weakness. Because he doesn’t trust anyone he doesn’t trust the ones who will come after him to rule Russia so he has to do everything and is under time pressure. 

Edited by PurpleTree

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1 minute ago, PurpleTree said:

Putin could have just kept destabilising the west with his Shenanigans. I mean he’s done it for decades and is still doing it but now he’s also stuck in a war.

I didn't mean in a negative way, I think he could have had a positive relationship.

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2 hours ago, zazen said:

market is rapidly de-dollarizing. It is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved. In a typical crisis environment the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base. This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines. Dynamics here seem to be very different: the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves.

We wrote a few weeks ago that US administration policy is encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity. We are now seeing this play out in real-time at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated. It remains to be seen how orderly this process can remain. A credit event in the global financial system that threatens the provision of short-term dollar liquidity is the point of greatest vulnerability which would turn dollar dynamics more positive.''  
- George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank

The beginning of the fall of the house of cards

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Antagonizing all the countries in the world seems like a bad idea if you want to maintain hegemony. Trump backed off because it was a disaster, but some harm was already done, weakness and unreliability have been exposed. Still continuing the tariffs for China, that's a bad idea too, as the USA is not sufficiently industrialized and needs to buy China's products more than China needs them as buyers. China has a lot more market out there to sell, it's going to be fine.

US internally, big companies will endure the losses, but a lot of more small businesses that needed trade with China will just close. Shops importing products from China can't hold three months of this, and farms selling things like soy to China are in trouble. Inflation is unavoidable, many who thought they were safe from inequality will soon join the other side. Bye job, bye healthcare, by the way.

China is developing at an excellent rate, compared to how it was 40 years ago. Progress, modern infrastructures, industrial innovation, and quality of life are palpable in its advanced cities. Sometimes we hear about India being on that route too, but they are not even close to that success, and I don't see them making the same moves to be there in a few decades like China did. America is in decline, it has the potential to be more than fine, but not electing right-winger anarcocapitalists at worst, center posing neocons incapable of conceding even crumbs from the top to the bottom at best.

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What do you think?

Restoring our rightful spot as the greatest most powerful country in the world.

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Prepare for a kinetic war in the Pacific between the US and China as early as 2025. If this crazy, idiotic charge of the current US administration is not stopped (however, externally, internally, combined), we have a blockade of Taiwan by China and an open armed conflict, which may be the beginning of a global nuclear conflict. China will not step back, because they cannot and do not have to. And Russia has in its doctrine the lowest threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, which is called by one of its main strategists Sergei Karaganov "preemptive retaliatory strike". The chances that the rulers will come to their senses are, but small. Besides, all the prophecies speak of it. Every Kaliyuga ends in total destruction, so why should it be different this time. We got what we deserved with our passive consumerist attitude and a perspective that only reaches barely the tip of our divine nose.

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18 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

The beginning of the fall of the house of cards

16 hours ago, Hatfort said:

Antagonizing all the countries in the world seems like a bad idea if you want to maintain hegemony. Trump backed off because it was a disaster, but some harm was already done, weakness and unreliability have been exposed. Still continuing the tariffs for China, that's a bad idea too, as the USA is not sufficiently industrialized and needs to buy China's products more than China needs them as buyers. China has a lot more market out there to sell, it's going to be fine.

US internally, big companies will endure the losses, but a lot of more small businesses that needed trade with China will just close. Shops importing products from China can't hold three months of this, and farms selling things like soy to China are in trouble. Inflation is unavoidable, many who thought they were safe from inequality will soon join the other side. Bye job, bye healthcare, by the way.

China is developing at an excellent rate, compared to how it was 40 years ago. Progress, modern infrastructures, industrial innovation, and quality of life are palpable in its advanced cities. Sometimes we hear about India being on that route too, but they are not even close to that success, and I don't see them making the same moves to be there in a few decades like China did. America is in decline, it has the potential to be more than fine, but not electing right-winger anarcocapitalists at worst, center posing neocons incapable of conceding even crumbs from the top to the bottom at best.

Brilliant. Love how you come in with spot on summaries and bounce bro haha. Wrote the following in another thread but it fits here well:

Rock, paper, scissors

BRICS is building new guardrails. It's not there yet, but the process is accelerating. The more chaotic the old system becomes, the faster alternatives gain legitimacy. MAGA is right to sense that a nation that doesn’t build is vulnerable. A paper-based economy that outsources production is not just economically hollow - but is a national security risk.

You can only buy a future you're not building for so long - which is a privilege the US has enjoyed through its status as global reserve. But that privilege is flammable. Paper can't out-build China’s scissors or out-secure the rock-rich alliances forming outside the US orbit.

Paper’s only power lies in its ability to capture and coordinate tangible value - not to create it. It’s an intangible construct, made real and assigned value only by trust, consensus, and belief. And Washington knows this. It’s not about TikTok. It’s about the tick-tock of the debt clock.

You can only buy the future you should have been building - so long as the paper you’re using is trusted.
That trust is only sustained if it’s backed by industry (scissors) and resources (rock). Once those fade, power becomes illusion.

All great civilizations are built - not bought. They begin with land (rock - resources) and labor (scissors - skills), then scale with trade and finance (paper - currency). Their buying power is only as strong as their built foundation. But when that foundation is financialized - when the scissors rust (industry and skills atrophy) and the rock is sold off (for climate goals or to the point you become dependent)  - the paper begins to weaken. And once belief in that paper erodes, it doesn’t just fold - but burns.

If paper isn't trustable, it's combustible. And when it’s up against a bloc like BRICS+, which is amassing both rock and scissors, we should remember: rock (stone) and scissors (flint) create fire - and no origami can withstand that.

Paper’s purpose is to amplify rock and scissors - to invest and innovate, not trade and speculate. Paper can coordinate and amplify raw potential into realized value. But in a financialized economy, paper breaks that covenant and begins serving only itself. What remains is a fragile illusion: a paper tiger made of origami.

The nationalist (MAGA) oriented elite get this and want to resolve it (though unwisely as is currently playing out). The trans-nationalist (globalist) elite get this but don't care for it as much, because they have new markets and regions to suck lifeblood from. There is a tension between elite factions fighting this out.

What the nationalist elite are trying to do is carve out a fortified bloc of client states, where the illusion of paper power still holds, enforced through debt, dependency, and defense pacts. Inside that bubble, the dollar will remain a reserve currency - not globally, but within a curated orbit, in a diminished global role.

In this model, the US shares the burden of empire in the form of tribute and concessions, while preserving its reserve privileges. By having allies peg their currencies to the dollar, it can artificially lower the dollar’s value - boosting export competitiveness and enabling re-industrialization of critical sectors. That’s how it may attempt to resolve the Triffin dilemma - by flipping the logic: turning reserve currency status into a mechanism to rebuild domestic industry.

A great video looking at the macro of all this.

Edited by zazen

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20 hours ago, zazen said:

That's what Trump is hoping to do. That’s why they did a blanket tariff on everyone - to gain leverage in forcing countries to pick a side and isolate China. If China alone gets tariffed they just bypass those through middle men countries as like Vietnam etc. The US would like to choke off those options.

Trump and his camp miscalculated. Hence the pause - don't let them tell you this is a win. 

Meanwhile in MAGA-Land, the Red Hats are going to be very confused when their sweet treats from China - their clothing and electronics and toys - more than double in price.

CrashJak.jpg


I have a Substack, where I write about epistemology, metarationality, and the Meaning Crisis. 

Check it out at : https://7provtruths.substack.com/

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Nobody knows except Trump.

He has no class. Seems more like a douchbag-influencer than a president. But Americans are not famous for being smart people, hence the canditates they pulls out.

Edited by D2sage

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36 minutes ago, PurpleTree said:

 

The question is, what is the next disaster he will start to distract from this colossal fuck up.

Iran.

Edited by Elliott

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9 hours ago, zazen said:

Brilliant. Love how you come in with spot on summaries and bounce bro haha. Wrote the following in another thread but it fits here well:

Rock, paper, scissors

BRICS is building new guardrails. It's not there yet, but the process is accelerating. The more chaotic the old system becomes, the faster alternatives gain legitimacy. MAGA is right to sense that a nation that doesn’t build is vulnerable. A paper-based economy that outsources production is not just economically hollow - but is a national security risk.

You can only buy a future you're not building for so long - which is a privilege the US has enjoyed through its status as global reserve. But that privilege is flammable. Paper can't out-build China’s scissors or out-secure the rock-rich alliances forming outside the US orbit.

Paper’s only power lies in its ability to capture and coordinate tangible value - not to create it. It’s an intangible construct, made real and assigned value only by trust, consensus, and belief. And Washington knows this. It’s not about TikTok. It’s about the tick-tock of the debt clock.

You can only buy the future you should have been building - so long as the paper you’re using is trusted.
That trust is only sustained if it’s backed by industry (scissors) and resources (rock). Once those fade, power becomes illusion.

All great civilizations are built - not bought. They begin with land (rock - resources) and labor (scissors - skills), then scale with trade and finance (paper - currency). Their buying power is only as strong as their built foundation. But when that foundation is financialized - when the scissors rust (industry and skills atrophy) and the rock is sold off (for climate goals or to the point you become dependent)  - the paper begins to weaken. And once belief in that paper erodes, it doesn’t just fold - but burns.

If paper isn't trustable, it's combustible. And when it’s up against a bloc like BRICS+, which is amassing both rock and scissors, we should remember: rock (stone) and scissors (flint) create fire - and no origami can withstand that.

Paper’s purpose is to amplify rock and scissors - to invest and innovate, not trade and speculate. Paper can coordinate and amplify raw potential into realized value. But in a financialized economy, paper breaks that covenant and begins serving only itself. What remains is a fragile illusion: a paper tiger made of origami.

The nationalist (MAGA) oriented elite get this and want to resolve it (though unwisely as is currently playing out). The trans-nationalist (globalist) elite get this but don't care for it as much, because they have new markets and regions to suck lifeblood from. There is a tension between elite factions fighting this out.

What the nationalist elite are trying to do is carve out a fortified bloc of client states, where the illusion of paper power still holds, enforced through debt, dependency, and defense pacts. Inside that bubble, the dollar will remain a reserve currency - not globally, but within a curated orbit, in a diminished global role.

In this model, the US shares the burden of empire in the form of tribute and concessions, while preserving its reserve privileges. By having allies peg their currencies to the dollar, it can artificially lower the dollar’s value - boosting export competitiveness and enabling re-industrialization of critical sectors. That’s how it may attempt to resolve the Triffin dilemma - by flipping the logic: turning reserve currency status into a mechanism to rebuild domestic industry.

A great video looking at the macro of all this.

Thanks man, I read your comments with interest too!

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