Economic Situation Thread

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

1 hour ago, aurum said:

Is it really more realistic to expect people to be savvy investors than to grow their income?

Yes

You don't need to be a savvy investor anyway, just need patience and some wits

1 hour ago, aurum said:

Here in the US we have millions of people with medical debt. You're almost as likely to end up with medical debt than not.

Then there's also credit card debt, student loans, etc.

What you're describing is not a serious strategy. 

LUL well you see, when you are talking about millions of people, there is no "serious strategy". My strategy is that of lowest expectations, so that the lowest common denominator can apply it to their financial life. But some people just win and some people just lose. Such is capitalism. It is a zero sum game. Do you honestly think that millions of people can all magically increase their income? LEL you as an individual can do that. A limited group of people can do that. A whole nation is not going to get paid better by "pulling yourself by the bootstraps" type of philosophy

If you see taking student loans as a valid unexpected expense then I don't know what to tell you. You should not be going to any of these universities and feeding this predatory loan system, especially during this job market situation. You'd have to be out if your mind to do that. I'd also feel extra stupid knowing Europeans get access to most of their unis for free

[Breakingthewall]

The more I delve into the matter, the more I realize its complexity. The global economy is very difficult to understand. What I'm understanding is that for decades, the US has been increasing its economic dependence on the dollar as an international trade currency. This means that the US is the guarantor of a stable framework and, in return, charges a tax on every transaction made in the world. This has led to controversial situations, such as destroying Libya to prevent Gaddafi's initiative to establish the gold dirham as an oil currency, and generally periodically creating wars to tip the balance in its favor.

The situation is becoming increasingly difficult for the US, and after COVID-19, a lot of dollars were printed to avoid a global recession. This is a very complex method that artificially creates economic stability when the reality is a decrease in consumption, something like a pyramid scheme. And it seems that now the pyramid scheme is going to explode in the US's face.

The Biden administration's move was to provoke the war in Ukraine and bet on Russia's economic collapse. It didn't go well, although it was economically profitable; it undermined US authority. Now, Trump faces this situation by attempting something that seems incomprehensible: the purpose of taxing the world for being a US partner, in addition to forcing rearmament and, with it, purchases from its factories. Trump faces a very complicated scenario and does what he usually does: make impossible offers and then reach an advantageous agreement. Trump's actions cannot be judged until the results are known. The other options, the democrats one, giving Ukraine long-range missiles and escalating the war in Europe to the point of defeating Russia didn't seem very desirable. Everyone hates Trump now, but that was Blinken's path, and it's an extremely dangerous path.

[WikiRando]

My understanding is that the dollar based financial system is at risk of breaking because of debt, and the question becomes what is the system stability and how will the new system emerge.

As of now, there is nothing left to pick up the pieces if the financial system truly breaks. That is the entire world as we know it since WW2. 

China has not built a new framework for the world to fall into. Nor has it shown its hand, earned the trust, built the rails, or proven itself in war.

 Therefore, if the US does not wake up and turn it around, we will enter a stage of more uncertainty and instability in the system. Given that MAD assures the planet isn't destroyed in war, it could eventually coalesce into a new bipolar world of two spheres of influence competing for power with the US sphere in decline, with an uncertain level of relative pain, death, or internal collapse. 

It's up to the US now to turn it around.

The other alternative is that China just gets big on its own and the shift happens that way but that's still decades away and might never happen. It didn't happen with Japan.

We can also just kick the can down the road for longer. Better comfort and technology ensures people don't start eating rats and cockroaches and start a real revolution, no matter the economic pain. Instead they remain relatively comfortable and sedate. 

Edited April 8 by WikiRando

[aurum]

10 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

You don't need to be a savvy investor anyway, just need patience and some wits

Patience and wits is exactly what they don't have.

They will lose all their money on crypto, long-shots, schemes, Robinhood and all kinds of other BS. And that's assuming you can even convince them of the value of investing and get them to start.

10 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

LUL well you see, when you are talking about millions of people, there is no "serious strategy".

Literally 401ks, pensions and social security.

Millions of people across multiple generations have successfully retired on this strategy.

10 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

But some people just win and some people just lose. Such is capitalism. It is a zero sum game. Do you honestly think that millions of people can all magically increase their income? LEL you as an individual can do that. A limited group of people can do that. A whole nation is not going to get paid better by "pulling yourself by the bootstraps" type of philosophy

1) That's why we need collective retirement strategies for people, like social security and 401ks

2) Some percentage of people will be able to increase their income. And especially on this forum, people are interested in being in that minority

3) You have no solution to this, just fantasies of investing

10 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

If you see taking student loans as a valid unexpected expense then I don't know what to tell you. You should not be going to any of these universities and feeding this predatory loan system, especially during this job market situation. You'd have to be out if your mind to do that. I'd also feel extra stupid knowing Europeans get access to most of their unis for free

Student loans can be a good investment for many people. It depends on what you study and how serious you take it.

Edited April 9 by aurum

[Twentyfirst]

 

 

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

On 9. 4. 2025 at 6:18 AM, aurum said:

Literally 401ks, pensions and social security.

Millions of people across multiple generations have successfully retired on this strategy.

401k is literaly the same as investing. LOL idk why you keep bringing this up. Literaly makes no difference other than maybe company would be willing to match your contribution to your 401k. And not all companies are willing to offer this, and only big companies and megacorporations or maybe state institutions are able to afford it in the first place. It's complete BS. Just invest on your own, it's much more flexible and your brain matter will increase by thinking a bit

Pensions? Are you working in a state institution for several decades, then maybe you'll get one but it's value halved severely by inflation. Other than that, there are no pensions anymore.

Social security? LOL it's a ponzi scheme dude. It's existence and stability depends on the young generation paying the social security tax which then directly feeds the old retirees. You can't depend on that with this birth rate, this disguistingly exploitative system, and the kind of prices we have while wages keep being stagnant.

Are you actually a troll? Or a boomer? Or both?

On 9. 4. 2025 at 6:18 AM, aurum said:

1) That's why we need collective retirement strategies for people, like social security and 401ks

Yes we need collective retirement strategies, but NOT like those things you mentioned. It has to be something different, but that has to be accomplished by political and social changes, not individual changes

On 9. 4. 2025 at 6:18 AM, aurum said:

2) Some percentage of people will be able to increase their income. And especially on this forum, people are interested in being in that minority

Ok? I said the same thing. But most people won't be able to. Prove me wrong. LEL

On 9. 4. 2025 at 6:18 AM, aurum said:

3) You have no solution to this, just fantasies of investing

Your ideas about increasing income is the real fantasy. It's what all this retarded hustle culture fantasy and American dream is based on. And majority of self improooovement advice

In reality, both increasing your income and investing is more dependent on the actions and mood of other people, than your actions. To think otherwise is delusional.

On 9. 4. 2025 at 6:18 AM, aurum said:

Student loans can be a good investment for many people. It depends on what you study and how serious you take it.

It is a bad investment that should not exist. Just because there's a chance that your future wage/income will be significantly higher after passing college and getting a degree, and that you'll be able to handily pay off student loan as a result, is not a justification for the existence of these loans. They should not be getting a single penny and instead should be state funded completely

[Twentyfirst]

 

[Extreme Z7]

 

[zazen]

@Breakingthewall @WikiRando  Both nice comments. You bro's are right in intuiting the prevailing issue at hand.

BRICS is building new guardrails. It's not there yet, but the process is accelerating. The more chaotic the old system becomes, the faster alternatives gain legitimacy. MAGA is right to sense that a nation that doesn’t build is vulnerable. A paper-based economy that outsources production is not just economically hollow - but is a national security risk.

You can only buy a future you're not building for so long - which is a privilege the US has enjoyed through its status as global reserve. But that privilege is flammable. Paper can't out-build China’s scissors or out-secure the rock-rich alliances forming outside the US orbit.

Paper’s only power lies in its ability to capture and coordinate tangible value - not to create it. It’s an intangible construct, made real and assigned value only by trust, consensus, and belief. And Washington knows this. It’s not about TikTok. It’s about the tick-tock of the debt clock.

You can only buy the future you should have been building - so long as the paper you’re using is trusted.
That trust is only sustained if it’s backed by industry (scissors) and resources (rock). Once those fade, power becomes illusion.

All great civilizations are built - not bought. They begin with land (rock - resources) and labor (scissors - skills), then scale with trade and finance (paper - currency). Their buying power is only as strong as their built foundation. But when that foundation is financialized - when the scissors rust (industry and skills atrophy) and the rock is sold off (for climate goals or to the point you become dependent)  - the paper begins to weaken. And once belief in that paper erodes, it doesn’t just fold - but burns.

If paper isn't trustable, it's combustible. And when it’s up against a bloc like BRICS+, which is amassing both rock and scissors, we should remember: rock (stone) and scissors (flint) create fire - and no origami can withstand that.

Paper’s purpose is to amplify rock and scissors - to invest and innovate, not trade and speculate. Paper can coordinate and amplify raw potential into realized value. But in a financialized economy, paper breaks that covenant and begins serving only itself. What remains is a fragile illusion: a paper tiger made of origami.

The nationalist (MAGA) oriented elite get this and want to resolve it (though unwisely as is currently playing out). The trans-nationalist (globalist) elite get this but don't care for it as much, because they have new markets and regions to suck lifeblood from. There is a tension between elite factions fighting this out.

What the nationalist elite are trying to do is carve out a fortified bloc of client states, where the illusion of paper power still holds, enforced through debt, dependency, and defense pacts. Inside that bubble, the dollar will remain a reserve currency - not globally, but within a curated orbit, in a diminished global role.

In this model, the US shares the burden of empire in the form of tribute and concessions, while preserving its reserve privileges. By having allies peg their currencies to the dollar, it can artificially lower the dollar’s value - boosting export competitiveness and enabling re-industrialization of critical sectors. That’s how it may attempt to resolve the Triffin dilemma - by flipping the logic: turning reserve currency status into a mechanism to rebuild domestic industry.

Edited April 11 by zazen