Economic Situation Thread

[Yimpa]

  On 4/7/2025 at 5:47 AM, aurum said:

Strap in ya'll.

[WikiRando]

Donald Trump publicly having absolutely zero respect or pretense about Federal Reserve Independence, exactly like in his first term. 

Do you think Jerome Powell caves and cuts rates?

 

Edited Monday at 07:40 AM by WikiRando

[Leo Gura]

  On 4/7/2025 at 5:47 AM, aurum said:

It feels like a big crash might be coming tomorrow.

Strap in ya'll.

Bitcoin crashed hard. Monday will be a bloodbath.

Edited Monday at 07:45 AM by Leo Gura

[AION]

This might be the last drop... get in now you can

[Greatnestwithin]

  On 4/7/2025 at 7:45 AM, Leo Gura said:

Bitcoin crashed hard. Monday will be a bloodbath.

@Leo Gura do you keep on making your investments or do you pull them all out? 

[FourCrossedWands]

  On 4/7/2025 at 7:59 AM, AION said:

This might be the last drop... get in now you can

Or, this might be the last chance to get out before it crashes even more. You might as well just flip a coin right now.

Personally, I am just waiting until BRK.B crashes a little more and buy that one. It is a cash cow. I am not touching anything else right now.

Edited Monday at 08:10 AM by FourCrossedWands

[AION]

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:03 AM, FourCrossedWands said:

Or, this might be the last chance to get out before it crashes even more. You might as well just flip a coin right now.

Even if it drops it won’t drop below 50k support. Bitcoin is here to stay on the long term. Luckily I got out of bitcoin when it reached 100k and I told people to get out but they weren’t listening.  

Edited Monday at 08:11 AM by AION

[AION]

I don’t get why people aren’t getting it. When everybody is selling it buy it. And when everybody is buying sell it. 

[FourCrossedWands]

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:12 AM, AION said:

I don’t get why people aren’t getting it. When everybody is selling it buy it. And when everybody is buying sell it. 

It's not that easy. Recoveries don't happen overnight. You will need to wait months for buying signals.

[WikiRando]

Nothing moves in a straight line.

If I had to place a bet, I would say the lows are not in for the year.

I hope you all kept some cash.

BTC is still doing well long term at least, although it sucks to see

[WikiRando]

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:10 AM, AION said:

Even if it drops it won’t drop below 50k support. Bitcoin is here to stay on the long term. Luckily I got out of bitcoin when it reached 100k and I told people to get out but they weren’t listening.  

If you believe it's here to stay why'd you get out. Are you going back in? Lol

[FourCrossedWands]

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:23 AM, WikiRando said:

If you believe it's here to stay why'd you get out. Are you going back in? Lol

A lot of people here are trading, not investing. Even Leo tries to trade Bitcoin and gold.

Trading: Buying and selling mostly based on charts and current events. Doing frequent research and timing the market.

Investing: Buying and selling mostly based on long-term fundamentals. Doing one big research and staying invested for a lifetime.

Neither of these are bad, they are just different types of approach.

Edited Monday at 08:46 AM by FourCrossedWands

[AION]

Trading is just psychology 101

[WikiRando]

My investor bias is showing 

[Leo Gura]

  On 4/7/2025 at 7:59 AM, AION said:

This might be the last drop... get in now you can

The drop has only begun.

Know the difference between a dip and a bear market.

(Assuming Trump doesn't cancel all the tariiffs).

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:03 AM, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura do you keep on making your investments or do you pull them all out? 

I won't invest in any stock for months. I expect a real bear market, not these quickie dips.

I sold all my stock and Bitcoin a long time ago.

The only thing I've been holding is some gold. Not sure yet whether to dump or hold it. Unclear how much gold will get hit here.

Edited Monday at 09:17 AM by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

  On 4/7/2025 at 8:33 AM, FourCrossedWands said:

A lot of people here are trading, not investing. Even Leo tries to trade Bitcoin and gold.

Yes, I trade because the situation is just too crazy for simplistic long-term buy and hold. I'm not losing half my money to Trump's epic stupidity.

Once the stupidity shakes out, then I will do long-term buy and hold. But you don't buy and hold at the top of an obvious bubble unless you're a masochist.

Long-term I like Bitcoin, gold, and various tech stocks. But not at crazy inflated prices.

Edited Monday at 09:16 AM by Leo Gura

[JosephKnecht]

Here is some original analysis. 

How do you get more people to become more fiscally conservative? 

Crush the economy by increasing taxes(tariffs) on all goods/services so that things become more expensive. 

When things are more expensive, people buy less, and the economy declines. 

When things decline, fear settles in, and people become more conservative. 

And you thought Trump was dumb.  

 

 

 

[FourCrossedWands]

  On 4/7/2025 at 9:11 AM, Leo Gura said:

Yes, I trade because the situation is just too crazy for simplistic long-term buy and hold. I'm not losing half my money to Trump's epic stupidity.

Once the stupidity shakes out, then I will do long-term buy and hold. But you don't buy and hold at the top of an obvious bubble unless you're a masochist.

Long-term I like Bitcoin, gold, and various tech stocks. But not at crazy inflated prices.

Fair enough, I still don't understand how you can say that Bitcoin is inflated at 80k when the last top was around 65k four years ago.

It's a dying asset and the last big bull run was before the Trump's inauguration. Everything positive has already been priced into Bitcoin. The FED will never allow it to be used as a reserve currency or similar.

Edited Monday at 10:48 AM by FourCrossedWands

[mmKay]

  On 4/7/2025 at 9:25 AM, JosephKnecht said:

Here is some original analysis. 

How do you get more people to become more fiscally conservative? 

Crush the economy by increasing taxes(tariffs) on all goods/services so that things become more expensive. 

When things are more expensive, people buy less, and the economy declines. 

When things decline, fear settles in, and people become more conservative. 

And you thought Trump was dumb.  

 

 

 

That would work in Trumps favor if he was an actual real conservative, But hes a megalomaniac populist grifter, so this mayhem may lead to a degree of turbulence where people turn to real conservative candidates, which Trump ain't,  that actually puts America first, and not himself.

Edited Monday at 10:51 AM by mmKay

[WikiRando]

@Leo Gura

My approach is to hold some cash but stay in the market.

I do not believe in timing the market as my core strategy because the biggest gains happen over such incredibly short timeframes. If you miss those, you miss the gains. 

I have sat out bear markets before and I have no problem sitting out this one. The sun will rise again once more, and if it doesn't, there are probably much bigger problems. 

I think Bitcoin is great as well. I've studied it a lot and it's just a solid system. 



 

Edited Monday at 10:51 AM by WikiRando