Best ways to secure my wealth for political winter?

[Leo Gura]

7 hours ago, FourCrossedWands said:

I am quite confident gold won't crash that hard. T

I agree that gold will not crash 50%. More like 10-20%.

But in a saving account you are guaranteed 4%.

I would rather get a guaranteed 4% than lose 15%.

The problem is that all investments have so much downside and little upside right now. It's a very bad ratio.

Edited March 7 by Leo Gura

[Stovo]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

I agree that gold will not crash 50%. More like 10-20%.

But in a saving account you are guaranteed 4%.

I would rather get a guaranteed 4% than lose 15%.

The problem is that all investments have so much downside and little upside right now. It's a very bad ratio.

Cash gives you guaranteed nominal 4% but negative real returns in the long term. 

If you are wrong and financial conditions ease then everything goes up 20% and you lose 16%. 

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, Stovo said:

Cash gives you guaranteed nominal 4% but negative real returns in the long term. 

If you are wrong and financial conditions ease then everything goes up 20% and you lose 16%. 

Yeah, but you're ignoring the risk/reward ratio.

There's a good reason why Warren Buffet is sitting on $150 BILLLION in cash. He clearly knows that the risk/reward ratio sucks.

Edited March 7 by Leo Gura

[Jannes]

I sold most of my fonds. Dont know if its the smartest choice but emotionally its so much better even though I invested just a few pennies. I was looking at my shares multiple times a days being aware that I had no way of knowing whats gonna happen next. I didnt expect to feel such emotional relief from selling them.

[FourCrossedWands]

14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Yeah, but you're ignoring the risk/reward ratio.

There's a good reason why Warren Buffet is sitting on $150 BILLLION in cash. He clearly knows that the risk/reward ratio sucks.

Warren Buffett sold his beloved Apple and Bill Gates sold Microsoft.

The main reason was fear of potential unrealized income tax if Trump didn't win the elections.

Maybe they would have stayed a bit longer if this wasn't a concern.

The rich know that this current state of capitalism is unsustainable so they rather get out of the market before it's too late. Their main priority is to preserve wealth, not to gamble and become even richer than they already are.

[Butters]

@Leo Gura what about Dubai real estate? Heard many good things, but that was before this whole Trump thing. 

[FourCrossedWands]

So far this seems like tech stocks and crypto crash. Retail also crashing a bit.

I am up about 1-2% this month. Mostly food, health, and utility stocks.

[kylan11]

The prophet had warned us.

[Leo Gura]

Now we see how bad this gets.

The biggest question is whether Trump will call off his tariffs. If he doesn't, this will be a bloodbath.

Edited April 7 by Leo Gura

[gambler]

On 2/2/2025 at 11:49 PM, Innerview said:

It happened, crypto went crashing 😭

Stock market is experiencing significant losses too.

[Lyubov]

I’m scared, I’m not prepared for this. I don’t know what to do. God free me. 

[Yimpa]

4 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

I’m scared, I’m not prepared for this. I don’t know what to do. God free me. 

Don’t give up. That’s exactly what Trump wants you to do. 

[Lyubov]

2 minutes ago, Yimpa said:

Don’t give up. That’s exactly what Trump wants you to do. 

I mean I know one thing, don’t panic. But I’ve been really reliant on a number of my stocks to support myself the last few years and I’m just selling off my stuff slowly but I have no idea what to do now, if I should just sell everything before it all tanks. 

[Butters]

11 hours ago, Lyubov said:

I mean I know one thing, don’t panic. But I’ve been really reliant on a number of my stocks to support myself the last few years and I’m just selling off my stuff slowly but I have no idea what to do now, if I should just sell everything before it all tanks. 

Americans always buy stuff. You can literally get free stuff from Craigslist and sell them on Facebook marketplace for profit. You can go yardsaling and make amazing money selling it on Whatnot, Amazon, ebay or elsewhere. 

I sell t-shirts online through Meta ads and used to sell them on Etsy. Americans would rather move to Greenland than stop buying graphic tees or small Christmas gifts. 

You shouldn't let macro economic trends influence you. You can become a millionaire with a small online business or flipping stuff in any economy. 

Edited April 7 by Butters

[Lyubov]

10 hours ago, Butters said:

Americans always buy stuff. You can literally get free stuff from Craigslist and sell them on Facebook marketplace for profit. You can go yardsaling and make amazing money selling it on Whatnot, Amazon, ebay or elsewhere. 

I sell t-shirts online through Meta ads and used to sell them on Etsy. Americans would rather move to Greenland than stop buying graphic tees or small Christmas gifts. 

You shouldn't let macro economic trends influence you. You can become a millionaire with a small online business or flipping stuff in any economy. 

Brilliant ideas 

[kylan11]

On 4/7/2025 at 2:52 AM, Leo Gura said:

Now we see how bad this gets.

The biggest question is whether Trump will call off his tariffs. If he doesn't, this will be a bloodbath.

Ben Shapiro (who's actually pretty pissed off about the tariffs) optimistically argues that Trump is responsive to bad press - and while that's true, he doesn't seem to realize (or refuses to say publicly) that his response has always been spinning, lying, distortion and scapegoating. Hardly helpful when you operate on the economy that tracks reality much more closely than theatrical politics.

He may dig himself into a deeper hole by doubling down, or back off by getting some largely symbolic concessions in negotiations and spinning those into a huge win "for the american worker" (= best case scenario). It's a 50/50 the way I see it.

 

EDIT: Actually, the absolute best case scenario would be an actual win: the EU getting their shit together and tearing down the innovation-crushing bureaucratic labyrinth that it is + Musk convincing Trump that an EU-US trade agreement is in the best interest of both. Now that would be one way to seriously fuck with China. Pure fantasy for sure, but you never know. Trump has been failing upwards his whole life after all.

Edited April 8 by kylan11