Trump Policies & Actions Mega-Thread

[Leo Gura]

Unfortunately economic pain is the only way MAGA voters will wake up.

Even the oligarchs will start to have doubts once their stocks drop 50% and their customers stop shopping.

Edited Saturday at 10:53 AM by Leo Gura

[Breakingthewall]

11 hours ago, WikiRando said:

This is not to go into hypothetical war scenarios or debate who's better, but to understand their systemic positions as world powers. 

 

China's manufacturing output is around 2 trillion to the USA's 1.85 trillion . The difference is nowhere as huge as what was described. Of course, that number is not the whole picture but 20k missiles to 100k or more is a bit extreme. This is not taking into account other military alliances which China lacks. NATO is arming itself hard now that Trump told them to step it up, and of course the US is not gonna leave NATO either.

The population thing is fair, but just to point out, with NATO alone, thats about 1 billion people in the bloc not counting other US allies. Also, while CCP control is undeniably strong, Chinese people are also smart, independent minded rational humans not drones.

To the point about allies, although US allies are getting hit now, what allies does China have? Russia, N Korea, Pakistan maybe Iran, handful of small countries they coerced economically who are not really allies but pawns. You still can't compare it to the EU, UK, Australia, Saudi bloc, Japan, S Korea and other Asian allies. The difference is so night and day it's crazy

As mentioned, US with the shale revolution is a net exporter of energy, they're overflowing with it, while China relies on Russia and others for energy. Why do you think they are so assertive with Taiwan, the South China Sea and with Belt and Road? Because they know if the US and their allies blockades the shipping route to the Middle East, (Malacca Strait route being the mother of all chokepoints) they will be cut off from Middle Eastern energy which makes up 53% of their crude imports. Good luck running your economy with half your crude oil gone. Being a heavy energy importer is a massive vulnerability that the US has patched up for itself, and no longer has.

Furthermore, with bases in S Korea, Japan, and more, but really, all around the planet, the US is right at China's front porch. Why do you think China props up the Kim regime? To use it as a bargaining pawn, but also so that the US bases in S Korea don't end up right at China's door. Meanwhile, the mainland US sits an ocean away. Crossing the Taiwan Strait to invade Taiwan is China's challenge of the century, but now they have to cross the Pacific Ocean to invade the US? The strategic asymmetry is astounding here.

Then we have the dollar dimension and the fact that the US runs the financial system. That's not going anywhere in the next 30 years minimum. If people hate dollars then imagine how much they would hate yuan or BRICS currency. Even China itself is invested heavily in US financial instruments like Treasuries (~750 billion). They are enmeshed in the US dominated financial system. That's how they built their global, export based economy in the first place! They are trying rebel from the very system that makes them.

Overall, you made some strong cases for China's position but my perspective is that the US is so far ahead right now, it's not even close, even with Trump actively undermining it.

When you hear the "rise of China" narrative, the focus is mainly on the economic size. But  as you might see, there are far more dimensions to influence than just the raw size of the economy. And even then, growth in China has structurally slowed and matured, China's biggest years (2000s when economy tripled in size) are behind it. 

China's manufacturing volume is $4.8 trillion, and the US's is $2.5 trillion, half that. The US has a large military industry, but it's organized to generate profits; its efficiency is highly questionable. Right now, Russia has more ammunition manufacturing capacity than all of NATO, as it kept its Cold War-era factories open, even though they weren't operating or profitable. Its weapons policy was never that of a company, but rather that of a state service. The US manufactures the most expensive but not the most efficient products in weapons. Its objective is profit, as it assumes its weapons are simply deterrents.

I would say that the conflict in Taiwan is almost inevitable, and there we'll see the US's attitude and China's response. Fortunately, a real war, sinking oil tankers and bombing cities, would be so catastrophic that even the craziest people wouldn't see any benefit in it. So, all of this is a hypothetical scenario.

[pablo_aka_god]

This is the problem with having uneducated masses vote.

I strongly advocate for requiring an accredited university degree in order to vote or at the bare minimum you finished high school and passed a class that educates on the basics of how your country and the world works.

So manny politicians are hijacking the minds of stupid people to get into power.

 

[WikiRando]

1 hour ago, Breakingthewall said:

China's manufacturing volume is $4.8 trillion, and the US's is $2.5 trillion, half that.

My error, that is correct, you make good points

Edited Saturday at 01:45 PM by WikiRando

[WikiRando]

On 04/04/2025 at 3:41 AM, zazen said:

A good video on Trump tariffs:

 

Good video showing Donald Trump stupidity.

A few general comments though

1. Inflation expectations is a well established model that even the Fed uses, and makes sense logically, but we can tell from history that it has no basis in reality. The most recent example, even though inflation expectations were high after the Covid money printing ~2022, inflation managed to go very low again because of the rate cuts. This is a gripe with inflation expectations as a model, not about Donald Trump's effect on inflation. 

2. There will always be demand for dollars.

- Not only is oil is traded in dollars, but global trade operates on a dollar standard even when America is not directly involved. It's just a network effect like Mastercard or Visa. 

- Liquidity liquidity. When we say the US runs the financial system. We are talking not just about who trades with US but liquidity. The dollar based liquidity market is truly staggering. Repo, FX swaps etc. this is the plumbing, the backbone of the world financial system that that is often overlooked and not easily replaced. People will still take their money out to buy Treasuries (which are basically dollars with interest), dollars and US instruments to participate in the system, even if that money was not obtained from trade with the US.


That's why I think the whole de dollarization thing is so overblown. I don't think the Trump coercion on that was even necessary or important 
 

Edited Saturday at 03:05 PM by WikiRando

[Husseinisdoingfine]

 

I think this really speaks to the poor epistemology of the MAGA movement. Obama is right, if he did was Trump is doing, than the Republicans would have impeached him.

Remember the Hillary Clinton email scandal? Where is the response from MAGA about the recent Signal leaks? Or how about when Trump improperly had classified documents in his Mar-A-Lago residence? Leading to his property being raided. They [The Republicans and the MAGA movement] even advocated defunding the FBI over this.

When its their guy mishandling classified information, they defend him to the bitter end, because they're too self-biased and have traded an endless lust for power over epistemological contemplation, for which they never cared about to begin with.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 10:44 PM by Husseinisdoingfine

[WikiRando]

Food for thought regarding the recent big news: 

- China tariffs are already at 60%, how far can it go in a trade war, 70, 80, 90? Is the goal just reversing the deficit, or decoupling? A decoupling with China is the bigger thing to think about. 

- China is the exporter and US is the importer. So the trade war is asymmetric, and there is a big difference fundamentally between China tariffs and US tariffs, because US isn't exporting much to China anyway. It's more than the percentage number on each side. 

- The top 10% of americans hold 88% of equities, the next 40% owns 12%, the bottom 50% don't hold equities at all. This is the context remember in the stock market slump, and how it affects the masses vs the oligarchs / rich people. But a recession hurts everyone, due to unemployment.

- A recession means less inflation because prices fall due to decreased demand, which loses jobs, which decreases demand. Therefore the market is concerned about growth issues, not inflation issues. If inflation and growth are low, then the market expects more rate cuts from the Fed to stimulate the economy.
 

Edited Saturday at 11:48 PM by WikiRando

[Elliott]

@WikiRando 1,000%, 2,000%,...... there's no limit.

The goal Is for America to make toasters for ourselves, apparently, instead of software for the world. The real goal is attention, he's just an attention whore.

There are parts of the u.s. where people want jobs, but Biden already took care of that with the chips act and build back better.where. Trlade deficit can be corrected by offering more valuable goods and services to the rest of the world, or buying less crap, it's not determined by tarrifs.

Edited yesterday at 12:19 AM by Elliott

[Twentyfirst]

Whatever happened to Trumps idea of building brand new cities to give people jobs and create more housing. I think that would have been more practical than trying to bring back manufacturing which will be mostly robotic employees. Would be cool to see more cities that can compete with NYC or LA

[WikiRando]

44 minutes ago, Elliott said:

@WikiRando 1,000%, 2,000%,...... there's no limit.

The goal Is for America to make toasters for ourselves, apparently, instead of software for the world. The real goal is attention, he's just an attention whore.

There are parts of the u.s. where people want jobs, but Biden already took care of that with the chips act and build back better.

Yeah Trump is Trump, but the layers and nuance is there's that some strategists in the administration are actually advocating for a strategic decoupling which means no trade, while Trump's whole schtick for decades already, is more centered around the deficit and reversing the deficit which implies there is still some sort of trade relationship or deal.

The severity and trajectory of this trade war depends on what the idea is and how far they take it. 

Edited yesterday at 12:56 AM by WikiRando

[Elliott]

1 hour ago, WikiRando said:

Yeah Trump is Trump, but the layers and nuance is there's that some strategists in the administration are actually advocating for a strategic decoupling which means no trade, while Trump's whole schtick for decades already, is more centered around the deficit and reversing the deficit which implies there is still some sort of trade relationship to reverse to run a surplus off of.

The severity and trajectory of this trade war depends on what the idea is and how far they take it. Deal vs no deal

Is this more his stupid deal thing to bring them to the table or does this new tariff say ok, we're out. There are levels of severity. Hard to say

The trade deficit is a real problem since the u.s. is in so much debt, it's not just the U.S. trading less, when there's a trade deficit money is leaving the u.s. economy that would otherwise continue circulating within it. It's just that tarrifing everything is like burning down your house to kill a fly. This is trumps own plan, I don't think the tariffs will last long at all.

Some tarrifs could be beneficial, not this. And there's endless other ways to rectify the trade deficit, education and investment for example to produce more valuable services and goods for the world. Or even just increasing taxes to pay down the national debt, this would indirectly suppress discretionary spending, reducing imports and the consequences of a trade deficit.

Edited yesterday at 01:40 AM by Elliott

[WikiRando]

The US will still be the big daddy but it's fascinating what this means for the rest of the world.  Besides the obvious slowdown, could there be a decrease in trade barriers with each other to compensate? People keep saying globalisation is over, but is it really? Why wouldn't this just mean more free trade to compensate, between the other nations.  I don't have all the answers and it's all still fresh.

There has been a relatively big shift to the system but many parts of the system are still relatively constant for now. For example, the Fed and the US based financial system

Edited yesterday at 02:34 AM by WikiRando

[Sea]

14 hours ago, pablo_aka_god said:

This is the problem with having uneducated masses vote.

I strongly advocate for requiring an accredited university degree in order to vote or at the bare minimum you finished high school and passed a class that educates on the basics of how your country and the world works.

So manny politicians are hijacking the minds of stupid people to get into power.

Quite elitist

[DocWatts]

Some encouraging news, for anyone who needs it.

About 5 million people took to the streets in nationwide protests across 1400 cities for the April 5 'Hands Off' yesterday.

The Detroit protest I attended had upwards of 6000 people, cities like Chicago and New York had 30,000-50,000 people.  But this wasn't just in large cities - small towns with populations of just a few thousand people were having people show up as well (there were something like 20 -30 protests going on just in the state of Michigan).

Tldr: the American resistance is alive and well, even if the legacy news media is compromised and not covering the protests 

https://www.reddit.com/r/50501/s/e0RCvGTDU4

[Leo Gura]

@DocWatts Very impressive.

More of that in our future as the shit hits the fan.

[Butters]

3 hours ago, DocWatts said:

even if the legacy news media is compromised and not covering the protests 

Which one? It's the headline on CNN.com and also APnews.com.

@Leo Gura you think it helps? 

Edited yesterday at 02:27 PM by Butters

[Frylock]

On 4/5/2025 at 5:52 AM, Leo Gura said:

Even the oligarchs will start to have doubts once their stocks drop 50% and their customers stop shopping.

It's laughable - LAUGHABLE - that anyone, especially the oligarchs, tech bros, and cryptoscammers, thought that Trump's "policies" would be beneficial to them.

We're only 3 months into this thing, still have a long ways to go. How much worse can it get before Trump and his cronies are dragged out into the streets?

[DocWatts]

1 hour ago, Butters said:

Which one? It's the headline on CNN.com and also APnews.com.

@Leo Gura you think it helps? 

Correction - a few such as CNN and APNews are, so due credit to the handful of legacy organizations that are covering it.

I had to dig to find any mention of the the protests on the New York Times, Politico, and MSNBC.

[Butters]

3 hours ago, DocWatts said:

New York Times

This paper is critical of trump and employs high quality journalism, there's no conspiracy here. 

[WikiRando]

The decision to drag Trump and his cronies out on the streets is not purely economic. But it matters because people only care about their survival.

Most people don't even have stocks. Most people aren't not feeling any economic pain now. It's way too early for the layoffs. They only come later when business slowly go bust.

The counterpoint to that is even massive crises like covid are often overblown. Remember when people were expecting massive hyperinflation and rapid system imposions. They were wrong

We will see how much Trump can destroy or leave irreparable. But there are mechanisms and structures in place with decades of inertia, what has been built up is resilient. That doesn't mean Trump is not causing massive harm, he absolutely is. That is the nuance I believe

Edited yesterday at 07:52 PM by WikiRando