Why did inflation and a weak economy not cost either Truman or Reagan re-election?

[Hardkill]

When Harry Truman was running for re-election in 1948, he presided over a much worse inflation problem during that year than Biden ever did. Plus, the economy back then was significantly weaker than it has been under Biden's presidency. Yet, Truman won re-election decisively and brought coattails for his whole party, which caused his party to win back both chambers of chambers along with them keeping the White House.

When Ronald Reagan was running for re-election in 1984, he also presided over a much worse inflation problem during that year than Biden ever did and the economy by 1984 also wasn't as strong as it has been throughout ALL of Biden's presidency. Plus, the majority of Americans considered Reagan back then to be too old to run for re-election. Yet, Reagan won re-election decisively and helped his party win back 16 seats in the US House. 

Sadly, Biden/Harris and the Democrats lost in great part because they were held responsible for an inflation problem that was not even as bad as the inflation crises that occurred during either the 1948 or 1984 presidential election years. Furthermore, I must reiterate that Biden's economy has also been significantly stronger than it ever was during Truman's 1st presidential term and during Reagan's first presidential term. 

So, WTH?

Edited December 17, 2024 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

Here's the response I got for this question from Meta AI:

 

The recovery from the 1970s-80s stagflation crisis was indeed more challenging than the recovery from the 2021-2024 inflation crisis.

Comparing the Recoveries

• Depth and Duration of Recession: The recession in the early 1980s was more severe and longer-lasting than the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation peaked at over 19% in 1980, and interest rates soared to combat it. In contrast, inflation during the 2021-2024 period, although high, was not as extreme.
• Unemployment and Job Market: Unemployment rates in the early 1980s were significantly higher than those during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Changing Expectations and Perceptions

• Economic Baseline: The economic baseline has shifted over time. Americans in the 1980s may have been more accustomed to economic volatility and higher inflation, making them more relieved by the recovery. In contrast, Americans today may be more sensitive to economic disruptions due to the prolonged period of economic stability and low inflation preceding the 2021-2024 inflation crisis.
• Media Coverage and Information Availability: The way people consume information has changed dramatically since the 1980s. The 24-hour news cycle, social media, and the internet can create a sense of perpetual crisis and amplify economic concerns, even if objective economic conditions are improving.

Societal and Cultural Factors

• Changing Social Norms and Values: Societal values and norms have shifted since the 1980s. Today, there may be a greater emphasis on economic security, stability, and equality, leading to increased anxiety and dissatisfaction with the economy.
• Growing Awareness of Economic Inequality: The growing awareness of economic inequality and its impacts on society may contribute to a sense of unease and dissatisfaction with the economy, even if overall economic conditions are improving.

 

The confluence of these factors of the following factors has contributed to widespread dissatisfaction with the economy among Americans, despite the relatively stronger recovery from the 2021-2024 inflation crisis compared to the 1970s-80s stagflation crisis:

1. Evolution of the media landscape: The 24-hour news cycle, social media, and the internet can amplify economic concerns and create a sense of perpetual crisis.
2. Growing dissatisfaction with the system: Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with the economic and political systems, leading to a sense of unease and mistrust.
3. Worsening economic inequality: The growing wealth gap between the rich and the poor has led to feelings of economic insecurity and frustration.
4. Increasing cost of living: The rising costs of housing, healthcare, education, and other essential expenses have made it difficult for many Americans to make ends meet.
5. Lack of familiarity with economic volatility: Unlike previous generations, many Americans today are not accustomed to economic volatility and higher inflation, making them more sensitive to economic disruptions.

These factors have combined to create a perfect storm of economic anxiety and dissatisfaction among Americans, despite the relatively stronger economic recovery.

In contrast, while wages have been outpacing inflation in the US since early 2023, and inflation levels have been relatively stable, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5%, many Americans still perceive inflation as a significant problem.

By 1984, Americans' perceptions of inflation had shifted, and it was no longer seen as a major concern. This was despite the fact that inflation remained relatively high, around 4%.

This disparity can be attributed to the factors we discussed earlier:

• Changing expectations and perceptions: Americans' expectations and perceptions of inflation have shifted over time, influenced by factors like the media landscape, economic inequality, and cost of living.
• Lack of trust in institutions: Growing dissatisfaction with the economic and political systems has led to decreased trust in institutions, making people more skeptical of economic data and more prone to perceive inflation as a problem.
• Increased sensitivity to price changes: The rising cost of living, particularly in areas like housing, healthcare, and education, has made Americans more sensitive to price changes, even if inflation is relatively low.

These factors have contributed to a disconnect between Americans' perceptions of inflation and the actual economic data, making it more challenging for people to feel confident about their economic prospects.

Additionally, even though the Fed has already been lowering interest rates significantly since a few months ago from what have actually been historically average Fed Funds rates:

• Lingering economic uncertainty: The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflation crisis have created a sense of uncertainty and unease about the economy, which may take time to dissipate.
• Ongoing cost of living concerns: The rising cost of living, particularly in areas like housing, healthcare, and education, continues to be a significant concern for many Americans.
• Growing wealth inequality: The widening wealth gap between the rich and the poor has contributed to feelings of economic insecurity and anxiety among many Americans.

 

Now how did most people feel about the high prices in the US by 1948?

By 1948, the US economy was in a period of transition. World War II had ended just three years earlier, and the country was shifting from a wartime to a peacetime economy.

Post-War Economic Conditions

• Inflation Concerns: There were concerns about inflation in the immediate post-war period, driven by pent-up demand, shortages, and the transition from a wartime economy.
• Price Controls: The US government had implemented price controls during World War II to manage inflation. These controls were gradually lifted after the war, leading to some price increases.
• Wage Growth: Wages were growing rapidly in the post-war period, driven by strong economic growth, low unemployment, and the rise of organized labor.

Public Perception of High Prices

• Economic context: The post-war economic boom and the rise of the middle class created a sense of economic optimism and opportunity.
• Social and cultural factors: The sense of national unity and purpose following World War II contributed to a more positive outlook on the economy.
• Public perception: The high inflation rate in 1948 was seen as a temporary phenomenon, and many Americans were more focused on the opportunities and benefits of the post-war economic boom.

The main differences between 1948 and 2024 were:

• Economic anxiety: The COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have created a sense of economic uncertainty and anxiety.
• Growing wealth inequality: The widening wealth gap between the rich and the poor has contributed to feelings of economic insecurity and frustration.

Changing expectations and perceptions: The low inflation rates of the 1990s and 2000s created a new normal, making people more sensitive to even moderate inflation rates.

 

Plus, the media landscape has undergone significant changes between 1948 and 2024, which have contributed to differences in how people perceive and respond to inflation.

In 1948:

• Limited media outlets: There were fewer media outlets, and news was primarily disseminated through print newspapers, radio, and newsreels.
• Less frequent news cycles: News cycles were less frequent, and people were less exposed to constant updates and analysis.
• More trust in institutions: There was generally more trust in institutions, including the government, media, and financial systems.

 

In 2024:

• Proliferation of media outlets: The rise of cable news, social media, and online news sources has created a 24-hour news cycle, with constant updates and analysis.
• Increased polarization: The media landscape has become increasingly polarized, with different outlets catering to specific ideologies and demographics.
• Decreased trust in institutions: Trust in institutions has declined, with many people questioning the credibility of the media, government, and financial systems.

 

These changes in the media landscape have contributed to:

• Increased anxiety and uncertainty: The constant stream of news and analysis can create a sense of perpetual crisis, contributing to increased anxiety and uncertainty.
• Confirmation bias and polarization: The proliferation of media outlets has enabled people to selectively consume information that confirms their pre-existing biases, contributing to increased polarization.
• Decreased trust and credibility: The decreased trust in institutions has made it more challenging for people to distinguish between credible and non-credible sources of information, contributing to confusion and mistrust.

Edited December 19, 2024 by Hardkill

[integral]

Maybe this should be in video format. Start a YouTube channel for political commentary?

[Hardkill]

4 minutes ago, integral said:

Maybe this should be in video format. Start a YouTube channel for political commentary?

You know, I've thought about that, but unfortunately, I don't have the time and money to start and run my own YouTube channel.