Breaking news: Syria has been liberated from Assad’s dictatorship

[PurpleTree]

Still sounds like a lunatic.

 

[Bobby_2021]

If people got fed up from 8 years of Obama rule, then Imagine Syria under 24 years of Assad. Syrian people have all right to be happy of the regime change.

Let's see what would happen. 

The elephant in the room is sanctions enacted by the west. They don't want Syria to prosper. Israel has already started attacking Syria beyond the Golan heights, right after the collapse.

With this expansionist colonial entity backed by US, how much progress could you make?

[Jirh]

Assad's regime was mostly a realist. The opposition is divided into two main groups, one is racist and extremist religious jihadist, and the other is naïve and gullible optimists who think they've overthrown the tyrant and don't know the new potential tyrant in sight.

There's also a minority of the opposition that is smart and realist, hopefully these will be able to control the jihadist and satisfy the promises they've made to the Syrian people. This minority is represented by a handful of people that turned against Assad's regime early on in the early days of the uprising.

Assad was very difficult to manipulate by western actors, and by extension he was also difficult to negotiate with, whether with inner or outer actors.

This new change will introduce a very different dynamic in how the area will be ruled or "dealt with". We cannot predict what is going to happen, hopefully for the better. But we should be extremely cautious about Israeli and Turkish expansions into Syrian lands. And also about the existence of Hezbollah and American bases in there. All of these issues need to be addressed and resolved by the international community or at least by close regional states like the gulf states.

Trump doesn't care about the area except for the Israeli cause. He will definitely support Israel to further establish dominance in the middle east, and with Iran's proxies weakened and out of the pictures, this should be easy and met with minor resistance. However, if he went too far and let Israel take a lot of land, then things might get ugly again.

[Bobby_2021]

Being near Israel is a curse.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

On 12/8/2024 at 1:22 AM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

The Syrian rebels did not consist of Democrats. Their leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani was a former ISIS, Al-Nusra, and Al-Qaeda operator.

Assad was resented largely for his secularism.

So to answer the question of what comes next, most likely an Islamic society similar to that in Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iran.

 

On 12/8/2024 at 2:02 AM, integration journey said:

No! 
first of all Syria is too diverse to be like Afghanistan. 
Second, Assad was never a secular ruler, he just wanted the west to view him this way. He was a militant motherfucker who destroyed Syrian lives from Christian, Armenian and Alawaite communities. 
third , Julani has said that HTS will probably dissolve  it self because Syria is too diverse to ruled by some Islamists unless that’s what people want. 

 

On 12/8/2024 at 2:08 AM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

HTS is an explicitly Sunni Islamist organization and the SSG already rules the parts it controls as an Islamic State.

I doubt Julani won’t just change his mind or isn’t lying. He was a former Al-Qaeda operator, and overnight just turns into a liberal Democrat? No.

At best it will be something like Pakistan, where there will be some democracy, but the official religion will be Islam. And at worse it will become an Islamic emirate like Afghanistan.

To answer this question, of what type of Government comes next, I asked this question to ChatGPT: According to Don Edward Beck, what Spiral Dynamics Integral vMeme was Syria under Assad?

Here was the answer by ChatGPT:

Don Edward Beck, co-creator of the Spiral Dynamics model, did not publicly assign a specific vMeme to Syria under Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, based on the characteristics of the regime, it can be inferred that it aligns with the Red vMeme. The Red vMeme is characterized by authoritarian power structures, dominance, and a focus on control, which are evident in Assad's governance. This vMeme reflects a worldview centered on power and coercion, often leading to oppressive and dictatorial regimes.

 

 

 

 

 

If the rebels overthrow a Red vMeme Government and replace it with a Blue vMeme Islamist Government, then from a Spiral Dynamics POV, this makes total sense. 

Too much of Syria is too religious and too conservative, that's how ISIS was able to spread so rapidly, and why Al-Nusra was so popular. Most of the Syrian rebels are Islamists and Salafist Jihadists, not secular democrats.  

We can try to forcefully impose a Orange vMeme style pluralist liberal democracy, identical to that in Europe, but do the Syrian people want that? Will the Muslims be okay with living under a kafir (disbeliever) satanic liberal democracy that doesn't even talk about God, and has the nerve to not teach God in schools?

The value systems of most Syrians is less aligned with Europe, and more aligned with Afghanistan/Taliban, Iran, and Pakistan. 

Also consider how Syria just overthrew Red, Blue comes after Red, and Blue is desperately need to unify societies and enforce a harsh black and white morality to quell Red's unhinged impulses. 

Just look at this list below. Most of the forces involved with the Rebels were Islamist groups, not secular democrats.

 

Edit: CNN interview with Al-Julani, where he explicitly mentions wanting Islamic rule at the 5:00 minute mark

 

Edited December 9 by Husseinisdoingfine

[Leo Gura]

Netanyahu is circling Syria like a vulture.

Edited December 9 by Leo Gura

[Husseinisdoingfine]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Netanyahu is circling Syria like a vulture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Syria

 

But is this the real reason for the invasion, or is there a more sinister reason?

[Happy Lizard]

11 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

We can try to forcefully impose a Orange vMeme style pluralist liberal democracy, identical to that in Europe, but do the Syrian people want that? Will the Muslims be okay with living under a kafir (disbeliever) satanic liberal democracy that doesn't even talk about God, and has the nerve to not teach God in schools?

Syria in 2000-2009 had a lot of SD stage orange. In blue society its not very common to see unveiled women and mixed university, when that is normal in Syria. I would say Syria that I know had a strong blue foundation and peaks at Orange. Assad was not against openness and was less crazy although ruling as a dictator. The levant is different then the rest of the middle-east in general, Idk if SD can explain it neatly.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

22 minutes ago, Happy Lizard said:

Syria in 2000-2009 had a lot of SD stage orange. In blue society its not very common to see unveiled women and mixed university, when that is normal in Syria. I would say Syria that I know had a strong blue foundation and peaks at Orange. Assad was not against openness and was less crazy although ruling as a dictator. The levant is different then the rest of the middle-east in general, Idk if SD can explain it neatly.

Don Beck actually pointed this out, that the civil war and refugee situation forced a lot of people into the first tier Beige vMeme, as people had resorted to drinking rainwater to survive.

A lot of the vMeme progress was destroyed in the civil war.

Edited December 9 by Husseinisdoingfine

[AION]

Syria was never a country until very recently so it never developed SD blue. Syria was hold together by a secular tyrannical dictator installed by foreign powers. 

From my observation most of Syrian people have SD red and purple hence all the violence and lack of social and national cohesion. 

This war destroyed the little national cohesion / spirit it had. It will need multiple decades for those national wounds to heal. At best Syria will become another Iraq that is divided in 2-3 chiefdoms with every couple of years a national shit show that will purge the country. 

[PurpleTree]

Maybe it’s just time  to draw new borders in the middle east altogether. The borders drawn by colonial piwers seem to fail over and over.

[PurpleTree]

This was quite a nice talk

 

[Bobby_2021]

1 hour ago, AION said:

Syria was never a country until very recently so it never developed SD blue. Syria was hold together by a secular tyrannical dictator installed by foreign powers. 

From my observation most of Syrian people have SD red and purple hence all the violence and lack of social and national cohesion. 

This war destroyed the little national cohesion / spirit it had. It will need multiple decades for those national wounds to heal. At best Syria will become another Iraq that is divided in 2-3 chiefdoms with every couple of years a national shit show that will purge the country. 

Balkanize and eventually take over to establish greater Israel. Syria and Iraq wouldn't be spared. 

I was thinking greater Israel was gaza and west bank lmao.

[AION]

9 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Balkanize and eventually take over to establish greater Israel. Syria and Iraq wouldn't be spared. 

I was thinking greater Israel was gaza and west bank lmao.

The borders are described in the Torah

[Lews Therin]

Just to register my view, i also, as everyone else here, hope the best for the Syrian population, but i find it very hard to believe there will be any sort of democratic government there in the near future.

This is not a stage orange world, it is a blue world with a few orange great powers in it, and even they aren't free of blue.

Brazil had a coup attempt not even 2 years ago. Trump tried that in the US and may try again soon. Democratic institution are very hard to build and maintain, and syria would have to build them from the ground up. We saw movements that carried the banner of democracy fail time and time again to build those, so i see no reason to be very hopefull the a self-proclaimed islamist leader, who did his first official speech in a mosque filled with took great care to shove as many blue memes he could within said speech will be very devoted or even capable of building those orange, democratic institutions.

But i disagree that the west wants a "weak syria", as a weak  blue syriamay go back to being friends with stage blue iran. I think Israel and the US are much more worried about making sure the new rulers are west-aligned than that they get cheap oil.

The iraq war happened in an era were lots of people thought "history had ended" and stage orange had won, so it was all about cheap prices. Now people are aware that stage blue is far from trancended, and so, to the measure it doesn't hinder the west's capacity to function economically, i believe most would choose to pay a price a little bit higher in order to secure allies against iran, russia and china.

[integration journey]

2 hours ago, AION said:

Syria was never a country until very recently so it never developed SD blue. Syria was hold together by a secular tyrannical dictator installed by foreign powers. 

From my observation most of Syrian people have SD red and purple hence all the violence and lack of social and national cohesion. 

This war destroyed the little national cohesion / spirit it had. It will need multiple decades for those national wounds to heal. At best Syria will become another Iraq that is divided in 2-3 chiefdoms with every couple of years a national shit show that will purge the country. 

You are simplyfing too much. Do you know the amount of Syrians that had to immigrate to Europe and other countries during the war and got exposed to stage orange and green ? 

[integration journey]

3 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

 

 

To answer this question, of what type of Government comes next, I asked this question to ChatGPT: According to Don Edward Beck, what Spiral Dynamics Integral vMeme was Syria under Assad?

Here was the answer by ChatGPT:

Don Edward Beck, co-creator of the Spiral Dynamics model, did not publicly assign a specific vMeme to Syria under Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, based on the characteristics of the regime, it can be inferred that it aligns with the Red vMeme. The Red vMeme is characterized by authoritarian power structures, dominance, and a focus on control, which are evident in Assad's governance. This vMeme reflects a worldview centered on power and coercion, often leading to oppressive and dictatorial regimes.

 

 

 

 

 

If the rebels overthrow a Red vMeme Government and replace it with a Blue vMeme Islamist Government, then from a Spiral Dynamics POV, this makes total sense. 

Too much of Syria is too religious and too conservative, that's how ISIS was able to spread so rapidly, and why Al-Nusra was so popular. Most of the Syrian rebels are Islamists and Salafist Jihadists, not secular democrats.  

We can try to forcefully impose a Orange vMeme style pluralist liberal democracy, identical to that in Europe, but do the Syrian people want that? Will the Muslims be okay with living under a kafir (disbeliever) satanic liberal democracy that doesn't even talk about God, and has the nerve to not teach God in schools?

The value systems of most Syrians is less aligned with Europe, and more aligned with Afghanistan/Taliban, Iran, and Pakistan. 

Also consider how Syria just overthrew Red, Blue comes after Red, and Blue is desperately need to unify societies and enforce a harsh black and white morality to quell Red's unhinged impulses. 

Just look at this list below. Most of the forces involved with the Rebels were Islamist groups, not secular democrats.

 

Edit: CNN interview with Al-Julani, where he explicitly mentions wanting Islamic rule at the 5:00 minute mark

 

Most Syrian rebels are NOT Salfasit Jihadist FFS. Is that what the media is telling you ? This is not Afghanistan. 
If we were salafist Jihadist we wouldn’t leave Christian villages to rule themselves.

guys, you have to stop viewing Syria as you viewed Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. This is too myopic 
Again, Syria is a very diverse county and we lived together for hundreds of years Christians and Muslims together before Assad. 
Syria was originally build on the many diverse ethnic groups living in the land including Druze, Alawites and other groups and now all of us are united. 

Edited December 9 by integration journey
Clarity

[integration journey]

It’s interesting to observe how everyone is suddenly an expert on Syria. 

[Husseinisdoingfine]

@integration journey I'm not saying Syrians are Salafi-Jihadists, Qutbists, or Wahhabi's. BUT, what I am saying is that most Syrians are of a traditional value system and more align with Spiral Dynamics integral stage blue value system, whereas Assad was much more stage red. Thus, they will have a stage blue system of Government.

https://www.actualized.org/articles/spiral-dynamics-stage-blue

https://deep-psychology.com/spiral-dynamics-stage-blue-in-a-nutshell/

 

[integration journey]

4 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

@integration journey I'm not saying Syrians are Salafi-Jihadists, Qutbists, or Wahhabi's. BUT, what I am saying is that most Syrians are of a traditional value system and more align with Spiral Dynamics integral stage blue value system, whereas Assad was much more stage red. Thus, they will have a stage blue system of Government.

https://www.actualized.org/articles/spiral-dynamics-stage-blue

https://deep-psychology.com/spiral-dynamics-stage-blue-in-a-nutshell/

 

Understandable