Why didn't Democrats do as well in 2024 as they did in 2022?

[Hardkill]

14 minutes ago, Emerald said:

WIth Roe v Wade, that's true that women are still angry. And women came out in near identical numbers to the last election.

It was left leaning men who mostly stayed home and didn't vote for Kamala... likely because the men were more focused on the economy than on abortion rights because abortion rights feel less relevant to them. 

But understand that Trump is the face of MAGA.

And lots of Republicans are really into Trump. They're not as much into other MAGA people.

Yeah, a lot of Republicans are of course in Trump, but what about the moderate and independent voters who usually decide the election more so than the party base voters? 

I think your point about left-leaning or Democratic-leaning men who mostly stayed home and didn't vote for Kamala makes sense.

5 minutes ago, Emerald said:

I would give young people a little bit more credit than that, even though their views can be more socially malleable than the average adult.

I know I held some very strong views at the time that were contrary to what many of my peers were thinking, which are still part of my internal compass. And I've worked with kids who also have their own nuanced views about the world derived from their own thinking.

But to your point, young people are more malleable and influenceable... especially by peers.

For example, it's clear that young men are skewing more conservative because of peer pressure and the right wing media environment that's geared towards young men.

And this is in spite of previous the previous generations of men being more left-leaning than the generations prior.

So, it shows that there can be a regression in values based on peer pressure and propaganda geared towards the youth.

Yeah, I really think your point about the right-wing media environment influencing so many young men to vote Trump and Republican really makes sense. I also believe that the dominance of the right-wing propaganda machine caused an unforseen amount of disinformation out there to the point of deceiving about 6 million voters in the country who voted for Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris this time.

[Emerald]

1 minute ago, aurum said:

Sure, but I wouldn't think you could stop this regression by building more Green community.

The conservative leaning element of the populace, which is the majority of people, have no interest in Green community. That's why we haven't developed it.

What they want is Blue. Giving them more Green cannot solve that.

I disagree with that.

People really only care about getting their needs met. They don't care very much how they get it... as long as they get it.

It's like, "Do you want the water in the green cup or the blue cup?"

If you're thirsty, you'll take the water in whichever cup is available to you.

But the collective has already had a lot of collective experience drinking from blue cups. We have a history of blue cup drinking. And we have lots of idealized stories about how blue cup drinking is that draws in people who are in Orange, Green, and Yellow.

So, there is a desire to regress to Blue (even with people who are not themselves Blue) because they cannot yet conceptualize drinking from a green cup.

But they don't realize consciously that connection is what they're searching for. They have a vague notion of being for the old ways, but what they really want is belonging in a tight-knit community.

If right now, there was some Stage Green cult where people could come together in a community... it would attract a lot of the people who are currently in resistance to Green because the reason why they're currently in resistance to Green is because they perceive that opening up to the Green stage in development will get in the way of their needs.

[Emerald]

21 minutes ago, Raze said:

But trump did better with women votes in 2024 then he did in 2020

https://19thnews.org/2024/11/harris-support-women-over-65/

I didn't realize that she'd lost support among women. I thought her numbers with women stayed the same.

But it's probably women focusing on the economy and looking for a change. 

I suppose it's just that the loss of rights becomes easily normalized in the wider populace.

If women had the right to vote taken from them, they might be upset for a few months. But then it would probably would become quickly normalized by the populace and just the way things are done.

[aurum]

5 minutes ago, Emerald said:

If right now, there was some Stage Green cult where people could come together in a community... it would attract a lot of the people who are currently in resistance to Green because the reason why they're currently in resistance to Green is because they perceive that opening up to the Green stage in development will get in the way of their needs.

No.

Emerald, they don't want what you want. 

The reason they perceive Green to be against their needs is because IT IS in the way of their needs. The needs of that stage of development, which are fundamentally different.

This is a values war, and someone is going to win.

[Hardkill]

28 minutes ago, Emerald said:

I didn't realize that she'd lost support among women. I thought her numbers with women stayed the same.

But it's probably women focusing on the economy and looking for a change. 

I suppose it's just that the loss of rights becomes easily normalized in the wider populace.

If women had the right to vote taken from them, they might be upset for a few months. But then it would probably would become quickly normalized by the populace and just the way things are done.

Wait, I can't believe that if women had the right to vote taken from them, then they would eventually be okay with that. Something like that would be unthinkable in our society and cause even much greater backlash toward the right-wing than the overturning of Roe vs. Wade did.

Otherwise, you might as well say that if black people in America were enslaved again, oppressed again, or segregated from white people again they might be upset for a few months, but then the black and brown communities will just accept it as just the way things are done.

Actually, despite the fact that the abortion issue wasn't enough to help save Democrats from losing the presidency and Congress this time, that issue will keep hurting conservatives and Republicans in the long-run as long as we still have free and fair elections and the Democrats do a better job of combating the right-wing propaganda machine. 

Edited November 25, 2024 by Hardkill

[Emerald]

8 minutes ago, aurum said:

No.

Emerald, they don't want what you want. 

The reason they perceive Green to be against their needs is because IT IS in the way of their needs. The needs of that stage of development, which are fundamentally different.

This is a values war, and someone is going to win.

But most people who are clamoring to go back to Blue are not Stage Blue either. They're just lonely Orange, Green, and Yellow people.

And it's mostly Stage Orange men who are clamoring to go back to stage Blue because they think it will be better for them.

But they will find Stage Blue to be too constricting because they are past that phase of development.

When my first child was a toddler, one of my former professors came to visit me at my house. And I was nursing my daughter, and asked her a question about how her kids handled the weening process.

She mentioned that she'd weened her son at age 2. And when he was 3, he got really upset and insisted that he wanted to nurse again. So, instead of denying him, she let him nurse.

And he did for a minute and got bored. Then, he was over it because he didn't get what he wanted out of it. It wasn't that interesting to him.

If Stage Blue wins the values war (which they might) and we go back to a monocultural patriarchal theocratic values like the days of old, the majority of the people who think they want it now will quickly be clamoring for lost progress.

Like the first grader who believes they want to go back to kindergarten... one day into kindergarten they will realize the magic is gone and that they can't wait for the 2nd grade.

[Emerald]

3 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Wait, I can't believe that if women had the right to vote taken from them, then they would eventually be okay with that. Something like that would be unthinkable in our society and cause even much greater backlash toward the right-wing than the overturning of Roe vs. Wade did.

Otherwise, you might as well say that if black people in America were enslaved again, oppressed again, or segregated from white people again they might be upset for a few months, but then the black and brown communities will just accept it as just the way things are done.

Actually, despite the fact that the abortion issue wasn't enough to help save Democrats from losing the presidency and Congress this time, that issue will keep hurting conservatives and Republicans in the long-run as long as we still have free and fair elections and the Democrats do a better job of combating the right-wing propaganda machine. 

If it were something longterm and abiding like enslavement, there would be a generation or two of backlash and then a tacit normalization and acceptance as "just the way things are".

But the loss of the right to vote would probably be normalized by the majority of the populace in a few years because it isn't something that affects people every day.

And when people would protest about it, people would be weaving the dissident Neo-Suffragettes as the newest edition of the "woke mob."

[aurum]

14 minutes ago, Emerald said:

But most people who are clamoring to go back to Blue are not Stage Blue either. They're just lonely Orange, Green, and Yellow people.

And it's mostly Stage Orange men who are clamoring to go back to stage Blue because they think it will be better for them.

But they will find Stage Blue to be too constricting because they are past that phase of development.

When my first child was a toddler, one of my former professors came to visit me at my house. And I was nursing my daughter, and asked her a question about how her kids handled the weening process.

She mentioned that she'd weened her son at age 2. And when he was 3, he got really upset and insisted that he wanted to nurse again. So, instead of denying him, she let him nurse.

And he did for a minute and got bored. Then, he was over it because he didn't get what he wanted out of it. It wasn't that interesting to him.

If Stage Blue wins the values war (which they might) and we go back to a monocultural patriarchal theocratic values like the days of old, the majority of the people who think they want it now will quickly be clamoring for lost progress.

Like the first grader who believes they want to go back to kindergarten... one day into kindergarten they will realize the magic is gone and that they can't wait for the 2nd grade.

Technically we are probably headed for more a Blue / Orange hybrid. But yes, even there will be some conflict of values. Orange is not going to like Blue's religious imposition, and vice versa.

The values war doesn't really ever end until (maybe?) Tier 2.

I would be careful though about assuming how much people will care about "lost progress" though. Much of the progress we've made was beyond people's ability to handle anyway.

It's not "lonely" Green and Yellow people. It's mostly just Blue and Orange, being Blue and Orange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[What Am I]

1 minute ago, aurum said:

I would be careful though about assuming how much people will care about "lost progress" though. Much of the progress we've made was beyond people's ability to handle anyway.

In the SD model, is it also possible for progress to move too fast in the sense that it becomes distorted and not a proper representation of the particular level of development? If so, wouldn't taking a step back via regression provide the opportunity for new growth to occur in a more proper manner?

I'm asking because I'm still mostly ignorant in the subtleties of SD, but the concept I laid out makes sense to me.

[aurum]

6 minutes ago, What Am I said:

In the SD model, is it also possible for progress to move too fast in the sense that it becomes distorted and not a proper representation of the particular level of development? If so, wouldn't taking a step back via regression provide the opportunity for new growth to occur in a more proper manner?

I'm asking because I'm still mostly ignorant in the subtleties of SD, but the concept I laid out makes sense to me.

You certainly can push values that are too high, too fast or too soon.  That's one of the key insights of the model. And that's where "spiral wizardry" comes into play.

Greens are generally ignorant about spiral wizardry. They just think everyone should be Green already. 

[Hardkill]

7 minutes ago, aurum said:

You certainly can push values that are too high, too fast or too soon.  That's one of the key insights of the model. And that's where "spiral wizardry" comes into play.

Greens are generally ignorant about spiral wizardry. They just think everyone should be Green already. 

So, do you think the progressive movement since 2016 has been all for naught?

[What Am I]

6 minutes ago, aurum said:

You certainly can push values that are too high, too fast or too soon.  That's one of the key insights of the model. And that's where "spiral wizardry" comes into play.

Greens are generally ignorant about spiral wizardry. They just think everyone should be Green already. 

Very interesting, thanks. Now that you mention it, I guess that really is a super prominent attitude for many of those who could be identified as Green.

[aurum]

3 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

So, do you think the progressive movement since 2016 has been all for naught?

No, not for naught.

But we've definitely hit a collective ego backlash.

3 minutes ago, What Am I said:

Very interesting, thanks. Now that you mention it, I guess that really is a super prominent attitude for many of those who could be identified as Green.

Yes, but Tier 1 in general struggles to see past its own value system. Not just Green.

If anything, Green is better at it than the lower stages. So it's not right to just pick on Green for this.

[Hardkill]

14 minutes ago, aurum said:

No, not for naught.

But we've definitely hit a collective ego backlash.

Yes, but Tier 1 in general struggles to see past its own value system. Not just Green.

If anything, Green is better at it than the lower stages. So it's not right to just pick on Green for this.

Well, what do you think the progressive movement accomplished materially?

[Emerald]

5 minutes ago, aurum said:

Technically we are probably headed for more a Blue / Orange hybrid. But yes, even there will be some conflict of values. Orange is not going to like Blue's religious imposition, and vice versa.

The values war doesn't really ever end until (maybe?) Tier 2.

I would be careful though about assuming how much people will care about "lost progress" though. Much of the progress we've made was beyond people's ability to handle anyway.

It's not "lonely" Green and Yellow people. It's mostly just Blue and Orange, being Blue and Orange.

I still think you're underestimating how much people's connection needs are playing into this dynamic.

The main reason why people (individually and collectively) stay in a particular phase of development they're at and don't progress to the next isn't usually because of intellectual deficits... or just because that's the phase of development they're in.

People hold onto their current stage of development or clamor for earlier phases in development despite the societal technology changing to reflect a higher stage in development, precisely because they believe that's where they can best meet their needs. And that usually isn't true most of the time, once the societal technology moves on. 

And right now, Stage Orange's atomization and social isolation is pushing some people forward towards the abstractly collective (but still hyper-individualistic) focus of the earliest semi-Orange iterations of Green that are seen in the contemporary progressive Left.

And it's making some stage Orange people clamor for an idealized mythology of what Blue once was because they have a learned resistance towards the initial iterations of Green that are seen in Lefty politics.

And like I said, it's mostly men who are in Stage Orange that believe that going back to Blue is going to bring them into a communal utopia where they'll be the most self-actualized version of themselves and respected as a traditional man and have status and an obedient Stage Blue trad wife while they get to have all their usual freedoms that Stage Orange society affords them.

But of course, that's not real. That's just a Stage Orange idealization of Blue.

Plus, if we truly regress back to Stage Blue... we'd need to un-invent the atom bomb to even survive as a species. And we'd also need to get rid of the internet and international air travel to pull off a consistent Stage Blue consciousness.

---

Also, the same values war that's happening now also happened in the Weimar Republic during WWII, as there was a lot of similar initial iterations of Green where people were more accepting of the LGBTQ community and had a more world-centric cosmopolitan view of things, and there were all sorts of art movements and academic expansion associated with Bauhaus. It was Modernist times with the schools of thought in academia and the art world, but verging on the beginning of a Post-Modern era.

And then, a demagogue came in to promise the Stage Orange/Blue society that they'd purge the Stage Green cosmopolitan degenerates and Communists who are funded by the Jewish elite, and bring back an idealized version of Blue when Germany was rural, traditional, pastoral, and idyllic.

And then, that failed miserably because you can't really have the government come in and retrofit Stage Blue onto a Stage Orange society. And after the crash, it eventually led into a worldwide clamoring for Stage Green peace and unity which eventually precipitated in the 60s and 70s with hippie movement, anti-war protests, the Civil Rights movement, 2nd Wave Feminism, and ecological movements that progressed even further into Green than during the Bauhaus era of the Weimar Republic.

So, you can look at these types of patterns that came from WWII (and WWI as well) and see that there tends to be a natural burgeoning of Green world-unity values to contrast the devastation of global war caused by nationalistically minded people that are maladapted to a unified post-atom-bomb world.

And then we that trailed off into a less popular version of that in the coming decades where there was a holding pattern of Stage Orange society with Stage Green values taken for granted as the norm. And all these Shadows were under the floor boards until Trump came along.

And now, we're going back into a few years of top-down authoritarian attempts to reset the idealized version of Stage Blue society. And it will also fail. And similarly, people will likely polarize to the opposite in a decade or two... maybe quicker.

That's what happens when you try to re-install a previous phase of development in a top-down authoritarian way. It fails and sends people careening forward as far as they can go. And we enter into a new cycle.

Then, all the unintegrated Shadow get pushed under the floorboards again for another generation or two... until we get another authoritarian movement trying to retrofit the old ways onto contemporary society.

[What Am I]

20 minutes ago, aurum said:

Yes, but Tier 1 in general struggles to see past its own value system. Not just Green.

If anything, Green is better at it than the lower stages. So it's not right to just pick on Green for this.

Ah, makes sense. It does seem like Green gets picked on for its excesses for whatever reason. Perhaps because it's the one right before the Tier 2 upgrade, and more is expected of it.

[Emerald]

6 minutes ago, What Am I said:

Ah, makes sense. It does seem like Green gets picked on for its excesses for whatever reason. Perhaps because it's the one right before the Tier 2 upgrade, and more is expected of it.

Green mostly gets picked on because it's the one that's new. 

And the people here on this forum are mostly in Stage Orange with a strong attachment to Stage Orange values that are woven into their identity.

[What Am I]

3 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Green mostly gets picked on because it's the one that's new. 

And the people here on this forum are mostly in Stage Orange with a strong attachment to Stage Orange values that are woven into their identity.

Looking at a graphic of the SD levels and applying it to myself, it may be the case that I fall under Orange as well. I feel like I encompass a bunch of these listed Green characteristics, but in many ways, I don't typically find myself in alignment with those who commonly receive the Green label.

Perhaps I'm a sleeper Turquoise/Yellow.

I'm sure everyone wishes for it, but it's probably rarely true.

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

If it were something longterm and abiding like enslavement, there would be a generation or two of backlash and then a tacit normalization and acceptance as "just the way things are".

But the loss of the right to vote would probably be normalized by the majority of the populace in a few years because it isn't something that affects people every day.

And when people would protest about it, people would be weaving the dissident Neo-Suffragettes as the newest edition of the "woke mob."

Such a generation or two of backlash would tear our society apart and would eventually force those in power to give those people's rights back.

I don't see how the issue of abortion is going to go away for the foreseeable future. Ever since Roe vs. Wade was overturned those favoring abortion rights skyrocketed to levels never seen before. 

Hopefully, after Trump and his party ruin this country over the next 4 years, enough people will realize the atrocities they've committed. Only a very very slight majority of Americans voted for Trump and MAGA because the economy just happened to be more of a priority for this election than democracy and abortion were. 

Plus, don't you think that the right-wing propaganda machine had something to do with tricking too many voters into believing that the state of the whole country was bad under Biden/Harris and the Democrats?

Most people really don't want any rights they have to be taken away from them.

Look what happened when the Republicans tried to repeal Obamacare during Trump's first 2 years as president. They paid a steep political price for it in both the 2017 off year elections and the 2018 midterms.

Edited November 25, 2024 by Hardkill

[aurum]

13 hours ago, Emerald said:

People hold onto their current stage of development or clamor for earlier phases in development despite the societal technology changing to reflect a higher stage in development, precisely because they believe that's where they can best meet their needs. And that usually isn't true most of the time, once the societal technology moves on.

But societal technology has not moved on.

We are not living in a Green world with a minority of Blue / Orange folks clamoring for the past.

We are living in a Blue / Orange world with a minority of Green folks flailing at pushing things forward.

13 hours ago, Emerald said:

Also, the same values war that's happening now also happened in the Weimar Republic during WWII, as there was a lot of similar initial iterations of Green where people were more accepting of the LGBTQ community and had a more world-centric cosmopolitan view of things, and there were all sorts of art movements and academic expansion associated with Bauhaus. It was Modernist times with the schools of thought in academia and the art world, but verging on the beginning of a Post-Modern era.

And then, a demagogue came in to promise the Stage Orange/Blue society that they'd purge the Stage Green cosmopolitan degenerates and Communists who are funded by the Jewish elite, and bring back an idealized version of Blue when Germany was rural, traditional, pastoral, and idyllic.

And then, that failed miserably because you can't really have the government come in and retrofit Stage Blue onto a Stage Orange society. And after the crash, it eventually led into a worldwide clamoring for Stage Green peace and unity which eventually precipitated in the 60s and 70s with hippie movement, anti-war protests, the Civil Rights movement, 2nd Wave Feminism, and ecological movements that progressed even further into Green than during the Bauhaus era of the Weimar Republic.

So, you can look at these types of patterns that came from WWII (and WWI as well) and see that there tends to be a natural burgeoning of Green world-unity values to contrast the devastation of global war caused by nationalistically minded people that are maladapted to a unified post-atom-bomb world.

And then we that trailed off into a less popular version of that in the coming decades where there was a holding pattern of Stage Orange society with Stage Green values taken for granted as the norm. And all these Shadows were under the floor boards until Trump came along.

And now, we're going back into a few years of top-down authoritarian attempts to reset the idealized version of Stage Blue society. And it will also fail. And similarly, people will likely polarize to the opposite in a decade or two... maybe quicker.

That's what happens when you try to re-install a previous phase of development in a top-down authoritarian way. It fails and sends people careening forward as far as they can go. And we enter into a new cycle.

Then, all the unintegrated Shadow get pushed under the floorboards again for another generation or two... until we get another authoritarian movement trying to retrofit the old ways onto contemporary society.

Well yes, I expect a counter-counter backlash. That's just how growth works.

Growth is push-pull, push-pull, push-pull. Right now we are pulling.

Also, I expect a counter-counter backlash simply because of Trump's incompetence / narcissism. Trump is not just a normie Blue / Orange, he represents a particularly toxic form of Blue / Orange with probably a decent amount of Red. That's why I've been raising the alarm about him more than anything else.

Imagine the difference between living under Marcus Aurelius vs Nero. Trump is a lot closer to Nero.