2024 Election Discussion General

[Raze]

10 minutes ago, Scholar said:

I would wager that for younger voters, Joe Rogan + Elon Musk propaganda apparatus might have done a lot of the work here.

That only happened this year, the chart shows they were already shifting that way.

[Joshe]

17 minutes ago, Scholar said:

I would wager that for younger voters, Joe Rogan + Elon Musk propaganda apparatus might have done a lot of the work here.

There's no doubt in my mind that without Elon and Rogan, Trump would have lost. I think Elon alone was enough but IDK. I'm very curious how effective his lottery was. Lots of people love the lottery. The same people bitching about eggs probably spend $50/wk on gas station lotto tickets. 

Also, their influence swayed more demographics than just young men. I'd say it impacted all men and those men influenced other demographics, like the women who date them.

Edited 2 hours ago by Joshe

[What Am I]

3 minutes ago, Joshe said:

There's no doubt in my mind that without Elon and Rogan, Trump would have lost.

Quite possibly. It was a massive conglomeration of variables. The superhero team, the podcast appearances, the assassination attempts, etc. I remember thinking that if Trump wasn't elected this time, it's just simply impossible, because the lining up of advancing factors was epic in scope and impact.

[Moutushi]

 

20 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

But it is precisely the people who chose.

They had a very clear, easy choice. They chose a deal with the Devil. That is purely their responsibility.

@Leo Gura Given many people's relatively lower level of development and maturity, I can see from a meta perspective how it was not a very clear decision for many people, in my opinion. I can see how many of us clearly understand the concerns you brought up about Trump here on this forum, but I must say Harris came across to many as significantly worse than Trump on various big issues, including immigration, the economy, and foreign wars, amongst others. People voted for what helps their survival and Trump's policies seemed to do that to many. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Moutushi

[Basman]

11 hours ago, zazen said:

That's the problem, those stages aren't full of shit.  I think the framework of spiral dynamics is limited and actually skews our perception of reality because we tend to approach it as higher / lower and conflate that with better / worse or more / less developed. It's spiral dynamics apartheid and tribalism with fancy clothes. It can become consciousness porn.

Maybe it's not about a simplistic ladder like view of development, and we should instead see the different values and worldviews as interdependent and mutually reinforcing. In fact its better to view it like a pyramid where stage red is the base. We need the warrior of stage red to protect us, the order of blue to stabilise us, the innovation of orange to excel us, the humanity of green to be fair, and the systems of yellow to tie all them together in balance. Like Leo said earlier - this should open our eyes to survival, survival, survival. Exactly! Stage green sucks at survival to the point we can't have a society orient around those values as they neither produce wealth nor safety which is why people are leaving Cali.

Also, it’s not like these values in a “higher stage” weren’t available to humanity before or aren’t even being lived out by people right now across the political aisle or border. Indigenous people were living out green values in harmony with the earth before we had pronouns or became vegan. The conservative old church lady probably bakes cookies for her neighbours in rural America whilst a liberal Karen who has “Kindness is everything” as her bio shouts at the barista for getting her coffee order wrong.

"Stages" of development aren't a staircase for consciousness climbers, they're more like a pyramid. The base of that pyramid are the values and ''stages'' we're all too busy looking down on from our stage green pulpit. Real progress doesn't come from decorating the tippy top - it comes from shoring up the base. Building on the values that actually keep the lights on and the wolves at bay. Green should be incorporated into and complementing those core functions, not attempting to subsume them entirely.

I love the pyramid analogy ❤️.

The problem though is that before Tier 2, different stages tend to antagonize each other. Stage Green tend to actively reject lower stages which then result in people losing trust in their institutions, including reasons of lacking the values that ensure survival. Then we get a situation where we politically regress.

I'm not saying that is the sole reason why Trump won but it is a contributing factor in my opinion. Not enough Tier 2 from the dems.

[Raze]

Another factor people usually don’t discuss, it’s possible the actual running of the campaign was bad, as in they just didn’t organize effectively on the ground

[whh2222]

9 hours ago, Javfly33 said:

My point is once Trump has been elected you have to respect the decision of the people not just think oh they are stupid for voting Trump.

The point of democracy is you accept majority of the people have voted someone you do not like...instead of thinking they are clueless or dumb, just accepting this decision and work on your own party or whatever for the next election.

But no, this thing of since the ones that I like have not won, then "I am pissed and they are wrong" This ends usually bad, ends by people assassing others in power because they think they are the bad ones.

So while you guys think you are being so amazingly conscious I see something quite the opposite, you lack consciousness to understand and include the majority of America that have voted Trump.

You are basically behaving like radicals, if you want to practice your conscious politics how about you practice open-mindedness and inclusion of ideas. 

Yo...you do realize that the right literally stormed the capitol when they lost? How does that even compare to the other side who has respectfully conceded but believes it to be a bad outcome? 

'Basically behaving like radicals' jesus h christ lmao the gaslighting the right does is INSANE 

Edited 1 hour ago by whh2222

[Hardkill]

15 minutes ago, Raze said:

Another factor people usually don’t discuss, it’s possible the actual running of the campaign was bad, as in they just didn’t organize effectively on the ground

No, you got it backwards.

Trump's campaign was totally disorganized, while Harris's campaign was incredibly well organized like an army on a military mission.

[Joel3102]

@Leo Gura Nine of the top ten election night streamers were conservatives, like Crowder etc. the one lefty was Hasan who hated the Democrats anyways. Are we fucked? Online media is sooo right wing dominated.

[Zega]

@Hardkill Well organized doesn't mean good though. 

[Dabidoe]

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Because progressives want impossible things and in the meantime they shit on liberals, thus empowering fascists.

Progressives are useful idiots for fascists.

Sad but true.

I can't help but think 95% of everything we're seeing is a smokescreen for the money shuffle.

[Raze]

14 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

No, you got it backwards.

Trump's campaign was totally disorganized, while Harris's campaign was incredibly well organized like an army on a military mission.

That is unlikely given how bad they lost. News is reporting many voters didn’t even know Biden dropped out.

 As the chart shows despite having nearly 3x the funding their ad output was about the same. Where did they put that money? Not to mention they ended it in debt.

Trump also held way more campaign events.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Raze

[Hardkill]

On 11/6/2024 at 3:42 PM, Leo Gura said:

Of course they were nonsense. "Science" for suckers.

Okay, I admit that you were right about this election in the end. Lichtman also clearly admitted to the public that he was wrong and is owning up to it.

But you know what? With all due respect, I would get off your high horse. People like you haven't always been right either. 

You thought that the 2022 midterms would be a disaster for the Dems and yet they had an historic victory overall. 

You predicted that the Democrats would lose two Georgia Senate races in 2020-2021, but you turned out to be wrong.

You thought that Ron DeSantis was a real threat to our country and yet he failed miserably with becoming the GOP nominee for president. He turned out to be so unlikeable and uninspiring that even a 2020 version of Biden could've probably defeated him.

Also, Lichtman has always prefaced by saying that he could be wrong but that you don't just change the way you predict elections on the fly. Besides, he has made countless successful predictions on presidential elections through his own model going back to 1860 as well as many non-presidential elections through his own intuition and understanding of US politics and US History.

You're still just a kid compared to him and no one is perfect including him and yourself and you know that. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Hardkill

[Raze]

Just now, Hardkill said:

 

You're still just a kid compared to him and no one is perfect including him and yourself and you know that. 

The difference is Leo doesn’t go around saying he used science to prove his right and smugly dismissing any possibility he was wrong.

Lichtman was acting like an arrogant know it all the entire election.

[mmKay]

Would Biden have beat Trump if he was in the same shape as 2020?

[Frylock]

1 minute ago, mmKay said:

Would Biden have beat Trump if he was in the same shape as 2020?

Honestly, no. There was no slowing this right wing, autocratic momentum.

[Etherial Cat]

@Frylock

How resilient will be the military against turning their back on the American people? Like in case of mass protest, if the next election cycle is cancelled?

At this point, this seems to be a very important element to evaluate.