2024 Election Discussion General

[Inliytened1]

42 minutes ago, Pox said:

Here are some examples of correlation fallacies:

Winning a baseball game and lucky socks

Someone might assume that wearing lucky socks caused their team to win a baseball game. 

Breakfast and weight loss

A study that correlates eating breakfast with weight loss doesn't necessarily mean that eating breakfast causes weight loss. 

Diet and weight

A researcher might conclude that dieting causes people to gain weight if they observe that dieters tend to weigh more than others. 

Income and rent

Data that shows a positive correlation between income and rent payments doesn't necessarily mean that higher income causes higher rent payments. 

More evidence is needed to prove causation than just correlation. 

I get it.  I think it's a matter of time before war strikes with any President.  He got lucky.   We'll have to see.  But Biden is weak and there's no denying that.  

[What Am I]

1 minute ago, aurum said:

What I'm saying is obviously not about optics. I'm not sitting on some campaign advisory board, telling Dems they should make that part of their messaging.

This is about sense-making. 

Dems can make mistakes with campaigning, but that is not the primary reason they lost here.

You could have a point. I don't know, I've heard a bunch of analyses now, and I feel like I'm even further away from understanding what happened. Everyone is coming at it from a different angle.

[Gidiot]

Leo is right and I disagree with him deeply on political issues but he is right here and trump showed you who he is for four years. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me type deal

[Happy Lizard]

8 minutes ago, aurum said:

Be careful not to conflate higher order "everything is Good" truths with smaller, relative "this is good / bad" truths.

Call it like it is. This is a disaster.

That maybe America will rebound in a greater version of itself later in the future doesn't change that.

No I know perfectly well it’s a disaster, I was being sarcastic, but at the same time I was writing the comment it came to my mind how foolishness can never be corrected without suffering. The People of the US have never dealt with shady characters in mass, everything here works, everyone is expected to do their jobs, they have not experienced true corruption. So to my own eyes it’s like a kid who’s never seen fire before. You kinda do have to get burnt to start knowing that fire = hurt. 

[aurum]

2 minutes ago, Gidiot said:

Leo is right and I disagree with him deeply on political issues but he is right here and trump showed you who he is for four years. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me type deal

This.

2016 I can maybe excuse for people getting unknowingly caught in a con. You just didn't understand who you were dealing with.

But now?

There's just no excuse. You knew what Trump was, and you either liked it or not.

Turns out most of America liked it.

Edited 21 hours ago by aurum

[aurum]

2 minutes ago, Happy Lizard said:

The People of the US have never dealt with shady characters in mass, everything here works, everyone is expected to do their jobs, they have not experienced true corruption. So to my own eyes it’s like a kid who’s never seen fire before. You kinda do have to get burnt to start knowing that fire = hurt. 

You could also, ya know, just read some history books. Or watch some documentaries.

It doesn't take a genius to understand the danger of Trump.

And it's not that people haven't experienced corruption. It's that the people themselves are corrupt, and so they vote for a corrupt politician. We have plenty of corruption to go around.

[Applegarden8]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

No one can save us from ourselves.

Is it that bad? We have to have bad times to have good times. The question is about tireless political work in these 4 years.

[Eph75]

Know thine enemy

Rather than taking face value unbeknowth if the masters of the puppet 

In reality there is no perfect choice

US is walking a very similar path to that which Sweden has walked and only recently the left has awakened to its own firm of toxicity, or rather one facet of it, while it ideologically drives on hard where it yet has to have its realizations

Thus is the nature of the progressive, to push into the new, untrodden and unknown, and clumsily fuck up, only to reassess, try again, win some ground and then fuck up again. 

Many things get broken in that process, some thing likely irreversible other than in fantasy and regrets. 

Meanwhile the whole spectrum evolves while doing this live stress test of the system, and healthy likely being the middle path, in between the extremes. 

It's a great social experiment - damnest thing. Grab the popcorn, enjoy the ride for what it is. 

Edited 20 hours ago by Eph75

[Frylock]

14 minutes ago, aurum said:

You could also, ya know, just read some history books. Or watch some documentaries.

It doesn't take a genius to understand the danger of Trump.

And it's not that people haven't experienced corruption. It's that the people themselves are corrupt, and so they vote for a corrupt politician. We have plenty of corruption to go around.

Nothing beats first hand experience in learning.

Let's not forget that the US is by far the youngest developed country in the world. If you were born in 1989, you've lived through about 16% of the country's history.

This is the first time the US has gone full on authoritarian. Western European countries are like been there, done that, got the t-shirt.

It's unfortunate, but people are stupid and lazy and they're not going to do the research, and our increasingly botched education system isn't going to properly teach them.

Edited 20 hours ago by Frylock

[Happy Lizard]

20 minutes ago, aurum said:

You could also, ya know, just read some history books. Or watch some documentaries.

It doesn't take a genius to understand the danger of Trump.

And it's not that people haven't experienced corruption. It's that the people themselves are corrupt, and so they vote for a corrupt politician. We have plenty of corruption to go around.

The corrupt will vote for the corrupt, but how do you explain your left wing friends reaction that you mentioned, and the fact that MAGA are actually handing their lives to a wolf ? Trump will be bad for all, maybe even the worst for his loyal young men and working class with his vision.The fact that these groups elected him is stupidity and gullibleness, this happens when you think with your mind and not have a strong gut feeling that that tells you who is highly likely to screw you up. Reading books is a plus, but you said it yourself it shouldn’t take a genius to see that Trump is pathological liar, yet people actually believe him.

Edited 20 hours ago by Happy Lizard

[Lyubov]

40 minutes ago, Inliytened1 said:

Why because he's a white male?

It would have been bad because he lost his mind and everyone knew it.

Look they lost because the democrats don't have a a leader. 

They have the party.   I don't blame Kamala she didn't stand a chance.  Maybe if she opposed Bidens policies and had gotten a bad ass VP she would have won

But she didn't oppose his policies.

White male and he had draw from older voters and the rust belt. There’s many loyalists who liked Biden. I think he would have lost too but it wouldn’t have been a blowout. He got 81 million votes last time. I think he would have performed better than Kamala on name recognition alone. No way he would of lost 15 million votes.

Edited 20 hours ago by Lyubov

[Joshe]

21 minutes ago, aurum said:

But now?

There's just no excuse. You knew what Trump was, and you either liked it or not.

This is the hard truth his supporters refuse to own and most everyone else refuses to acknowledge because they can't stomach a world where this is the case. So weak and cowardly. I sometimes wonder if cowardice plays a bigger role than ignorance. 

[strange-connections]

Poor trump voters are like the naive girl from a broken family, attracted to the toxic guy who only wants to use her body. Blinded by stage orange, she is flooded with dopamine, and attaches on until she can't any longer. She will invariably get hurt, but the question is how bad? If she can get over him and self-actualize past orange, she will hold animosity but is likely healed enough to appreciate who she became, and although regretful of the experience it will be hard for her to imagine a present world without it.

Rich trump voters are like privileged sorority girls, they are simply having too much fun to give a fuck. 

[Lyubov]

I think the worst thing to come from this is that it brought legitimacy to how trump denied the election results in 2020 and started a riot cause he lost. That is the main thing why I would never tell anyone to vote Trump. I didn’t like his policies before and thought he was a huge liar and disrespectful but that was some next level stuff which most Americans seems to not care about either. The truth is not valued in the USA. 

[Frylock]

3 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

I think the worst thing to come from this is that it brought legitimacy to how trump denied the election results in 2020 and started a riot cause he lost. That is the main thing why I would never tell anyone to vote Trump. I didn’t like his policies before and thought he was a huge liar and disrespectful but that was some next level stuff which most Americans seems to not care about either. The truth is not valued in the USA. 

A morally bankrupt society votes for a morally bankrupt man

[lostingenosmaze]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The racism is real. Which is why Trump last week called him Barack *Hussein* Obama.

That's Obama's full name though, is it not?

[aurum]

53 minutes ago, What Am I said:

You could have a point. I don't know, I've heard a bunch of analyses now, and I feel like I'm even further away from understanding what happened. Everyone is coming at it from a different angle.

Well-intentioned people blasted the message that Trump was lying about a stolen election, committed crimes and attempted a coup for four fucking years. The facts were completely clear.

Is it the democrats fault that the populace didn't care?

What more do you want?

[Bobby_2021]

1 hour ago, aurum said:

What I'm saying is obviously not about optics

Winning is all about optics. If the dems do not accept that, they are the ignorant side here. 

[Inliytened1]

30 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

White male and he had draw from older voters and the rust belt. There’s many loyalists who liked Biden. I think he would have lost too but it wouldn’t have been a blowout. He got 81 million votes last time.  

Last time he still had his faculties though...they were screwed either way.   Don't worry.  Should be a great next four years.  

[aurum]

33 minutes ago, Happy Lizard said:

The corrupt will vote for the corrupt, but how do you explain your left wing friends reaction that you mentioned, and the fact that MAGA are actually handing their lives to a wolf ? Trump will be bad for all, maybe even the worst for his loyal young men and working class with his vision.The fact that these groups elected him is stupidity and gullibleness, this happens when you think with your mind and not have a strong gut feeling that that tells you who is highly likely to screw you up. Reading books is a plus, but you said it yourself it shouldn’t take a genius to see that Trump is pathological liar, yet people actually believe him.

I already explained it.

It's some combination of ignorance, apathy, revenge-seeking, corruption, ethnocentrism, bias, lack of education, selfishness and corruption.