2024 Election Discussion General

[Husseinisdoingfine]

Election update: Elon Musk giving speeches at Trump rallies.

 

Edited October 18 by Husseinisdoingfine

[Thought Art]

Question those who flaunt success…

[Raze]

 

[Husseinisdoingfine]

13 minutes ago, Raze said:

 

This is exactly the precise type of content I made this general thread for. Mainly for election news, polling updates, and predictions. As well as providing information to people on how to vote and how to register to vote.

@Raze Thank you for the quality post! Please keep it up.

[Raze]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
 

This is insane, Harris needs to make a major change and fast. 

[DocWatts]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
 

This is insane, Harris needs to make a major change and fast. 

I'm calling bullshit on this map. If Trump wins, it's to be by a narrow EC margin. No chance in hell that he's going to sweep EVERY swing state.

It's worth keeping in mind that the polls are very skewed because of a deluge of highly partisan Republican polls over the last few weeks, with the aim of:

1) discouraging Democratic turnout

2) a pretense challenging the election results should Trump lose.

 

 

[Raze]

3 minutes ago, DocWatts said:

It's worth keeping in mind that the polls are very skewed because of a deluge of highly partisan Republican polls over the last few weeks, with the aim of:

1) discouraging Democratic turnout

2) a pretense challenging the election results should Trump lose.

Which ones?

[Schizophonia]

On 10/14/2024 at 0:30 AM, Thought Art said:

Trump is a failure

 

Trump has a positive balance of some billions of dollars.

The guy on the video is a weakling liar.

Edited October 18 by Schizophonia

[DocWatts]

58 minutes ago, Raze said:

Which ones?

Let's Talk Elections goes into this in a ton of detail.

Tldr is that dozens of low quality partisan Republican pollsters are being factored into this average, which are skewing the outcome. And no one is sure how this deluge of highly partisan polls should be weighted when compiling an aggregate of all the polls. To the point where this deluge of partisan polls could be considered a form of election interference by the Republican Party, to create a pretense to dispute the results.

(For contrast, I think he mentioned that only something like 6 partisan polls from Democrats are part of this average, which is creating an illusion of a Red Wave like in 2022 which never materialized). 

 

 

Edited October 18 by DocWatts

[Thought Art]

1 hour ago, Schizophonia said:

Trump has a positive balance of some billions of dollars.

The guy on the video is a weakling liar.

How do you know?

You’re telling me he has Billions but cant afford his legal fees? Or he just won’t because he is a conman and a criminal. 

Before he started the Apprentice he had many bankruptcies and business failures. Not to mention lawsuits against him for not paying contractors, illegally not allowing blacks to live in his rental properties etc. This man pointing out the harsh truth about what a massive failure Trump actually is, behind all his lies is not weakness. If anyone is weak it’s Trump. Because instead of doing what is right for the American People he chronically lies and spews his BS and nonsense. The man has no idea of tarifs works for gods sake. People is grade 7 can understand that tarifs increase the cost of living for people in the US… His economic policies are that of an actual retard. His business failures are well recorded. There is no proof he is currently a billionaire. Everything about him other than being a loser, a fraud, a conman, a bully, a fascist and a complete moron is a lie.
 

I shared above how even the creator of the apprentice released an apology for making him look like a business success when in reality, he was a complete failure. He has destroyed many lives, and he doesn’t care. 

Edited October 18 by Thought Art

[Husseinisdoingfine]

Sincere question:

I’m not just voting just for President and Congress, but also local races, including the school board.

Should I just leave the school board section blank? If Republicans control the school board, what will happen? The Republicans are sponsored by this group ‘Mom’s for Liberty’.

Edited October 19 by Husseinisdoingfine

[ryandesreu]

I said: Trump has been underestimated in the national polls in past years. Have the polls been adjusted to compensate for that?

ChatGPT said: Pollsters have made some adjustments since Donald Trump was underestimated in national polls during the 2016 and 2020 elections. In both elections, particularly 2016, many polls failed to capture certain pro-Trump voters, especially those in rural and less densely populated areas. Since then, polling organizations have worked to refine their methodologies to address these errors.

Here are a few adjustments made by pollsters:

Weighting for Education: Many polls now give more weight to non-college-educated voters, who were a significant part of Trump’s base and were underrepresented in past polls.

Response Rates: Pollsters have tried to address the issue of "shy Trump voters," or those who may have been reluctant to admit their support for Trump in past elections. Different techniques, like online polling or anonymous responses, may encourage more honest responses.

Rural Voter Representation: Polling organizations have also adjusted to ensure they better capture opinions from voters in rural areas, where Trump traditionally performs well.

Improved Likely Voter Models: Polls have refined their methods for predicting who is most likely to vote, trying to ensure that they are capturing those who actually show up on Election Day.

Despite these efforts, there’s still uncertainty. While adjustments have been made, polling is inherently imprecise, and shifts in the electorate or voter enthusiasm can be hard to measure accurately. It's worth noting that in the 2022 midterms, some polls again showed discrepancies between the forecasts and the results, which suggests that perfecting these adjustments remains a work in progress.

[Schizophonia]

21 hours ago, Thought Art said:

How do you know?

You’re telling me he has Billions but cant afford his legal fees? Or he just won’t because he is a conman and a criminal. 
 

I didn’t say he has billions on his bank account, i’ve said he has generated several billions of dollars,his assets are supposed to be 5 billion

Quote

Before he started the Apprentice he had many bankruptcies and business failures. Not to mention lawsuits against him for not paying contractors, illegally not allowing blacks to live in his rental properties etc.
 

I don’t deny he has commit any crimes.

Quote

 

This man pointing out the harsh truth about what a massive failure Trump actually is, behind all his lies is not weakness. If anyone is weak it’s Trump. Because instead of doing what is right for the American People he chronically lies and spews his BS and nonsense. The man has no idea of tarifs works for gods sake. People is grade 7 can understand that tarifs increase the cost of living for people in the US… His economic policies are that of an actual retard. His business failures are well recorded. There is no proof he is currently a billionaire. Everything about him other than being a loser, a fraud, a conman, a bully, a fascist and a complete moron is a lie.
 

I shared above how even the creator of the apprentice released an apology for making him look like a business success when in reality, he was a complete failure. He has destroyed many lives, and he doesn’t care. 

Your text is a mixture of begin the question and vicious attacks below the belt.

 

Edited October 19 by Schizophonia

[Lyubov]

This election is going to be so damn close, maybe the closest in history? Could be similar to Bush/Gore?

Edited October 19 by Lyubov

[Thought Art]

@Lyubov I hope not. 

—-

2025

 

Edited October 19 by Thought Art

[Fearey]

55 minutes ago, Thought Art said:

@Lyubov I hope not. 

—-

2025

 

What a crazy, surreal timeline. Half the country is literally in favor of a new Hitler.

[DocWatts]

GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian

"As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don’t buy it.

About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened.

The purpose is two-fold, Rosenberg said: To excite Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses."

 

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html

[Thought Art]

11 hours ago, Fearey said:

What a crazy, surreal timeline. Half the country is literally in favor of a new Hitler.

The Irony is they think Kamala is a communist Marxist which will lead to some gross form of totalitarianism. These people are blind, brainwashed and lied to. New sources like Fox should be ashamed of themselves. If they could see the damage they do they would want to kill themselves. 
 

How many ropes of cognitive bias, survival and self deception does it take to hang a Fox new anchor? 
 

I don’t condone suicide. I am just pointing to the pain they would feel if they see how they helped to create this monster Trump and how it has threatened the US and democracy. The very things they value.

Edited October 20 by Thought Art

[Thought Art]

@DocWatts I am not convinced by that report. 

[PurpleTree]

I like elections too.

Because i like democracy. 

And it can be soo divisive and a bit exciting. 
 

And the slogans "Yes we can, change" "Make America Great Again" "When we fight, we win" It’s Rumi level stuff

Are we slithering into fascism or marxism this time? Do we have enough guns and toilet paper?

Nice 🦭 and may the better team win. 

Goosebumps