Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[Lyubov]

2 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Could you imagine how many Ukrainian soldiers would like to kill zelenski? You guys can't imagine the horror that's being committed against the Ukrainian youth men. Only who couldn't scape from Ukraine is fighting now. 

Do you seriously think that a normal 25-year-old guy who looks for girls and goes out with his friends is going to die at 20 degrees below zero so that the president can be dickachenko instead of pussychenko? Seriously? They are there brainwashed and violently forced

That’s a draft. Tons of draft dodgers. Most people don’t want to die for their state or country. You cannot escape responsibility to your state. You either honor the draft or you dodge it and pay the consequences.

[Hatfort]

1 hour ago, Lyubov said:

Very nearsighted. What makes you think this peace will last? What’s being set up now is for this conflict to freeze and turn into a bigger war in 5-10 years from now. A rushed ceasefire by Trump to get a quick political win with his stupid voters is not a long term solution. 

First, we gotta differentiate between a ceasefire and a peace deal, they are not the same.

A ceasefire mainly means that shooting each other stops, the conflict freezes at the state it is, and nobody grants the other any of his long-term claims or aspirations, there's no agreement. There can be mutual concessions like prisoner exchanges or other things. A ceasefire will not happen in this war because it's not in Russia's interest to have it, they can continue the war, and at the current state, it would only give their opponents time to rest, equip, train, and be more prepared than they are now, making it more difficult for them in the future. It only happens when both sides need it.

In a peace deal, the fire stops too, but the two sides agree to new borders, or to go back to the old ones, and the military apparatus moves from an offensive status to something more defensive or latent. There's a mutual attempt to ensure none will attack each other. The losing party usually has to accept some level of control, ask Germany or Japan if they were allowed to have nukes after WW II. If any point of the agreement is broken, there are consequences.

Are there total guarantees? No, but usually both sides are tired of dying and it's mutually beneficial to stop. But let's say in 10 years Ukraine elects someone that wants to get the Crimea back, get his country on board, and attacks. Let's say Putin dies and Russia elects another guy that wants Odessa and attacks. Then the peace deal has been broken and there's a new war. But that's the same for every other border in the world. Denmark thought that by being in NATO his borders were secure, and Trump is saying he wants Greenland.

[Lyubov]

5 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

First, we gotta differentiate between a ceasefire and a peace deal, they are not the same.

A ceasefire mainly means that shooting each other stops, the conflict freezes at the state it is, and nobody grants the other any of his long-term claims or aspirations, there's no agreement. There can be mutual concessions like prisoner exchanges or other things. A ceasefire will not happen in this war because it's not in Russia's interest to have it, they can continue the war, and at the current state, it would only give their opponents time to rest, equip, train, and be more prepared than they are now, making it more difficult for them in the future. It only happens when both sides need it.

In a peace deal, the fire stops too, but the two sides agree to new borders, or to go back to the old ones, and the military apparatus moves from an offensive status to something more defensive or latent. There's a mutual attempt to ensure none will attack each other. The losing party usually has to accept some level of control, ask Germany or Japan if they were allowed to have nukes after WW II. If any point of the agreement is broken, there are consequences.

Are there total guarantees? No, but usually both sides are tired of dying and it's mutually beneficial to stop. But let's say in 10 years Ukraine elects someone that wants to get the Crimea back, get his country on board, and attacks. Let's say Putin dies and Russia elects another guy that wants Odessa and attacks. Then the peace deal has been broken and there's a new war. But that's the same for every other border in the world. Denmark thought that by being in NATO his borders were secure, and Trump is saying he wants Greenland.

What’s mutually beneficial to Ukraine or the USA by abandoning an ally and setting up a peace deal that’s likely to be broken by Russia the moment they smell weakness? which is exactly what this is. A cease fire benefits Russia just as much because they will be able to rebuild and there is absolutely nothing to trust about them saying they are fine with whatever deal is reached. It’s pretty clear in their minds they believe they are entitled to annex land from all countries that were part of the Soviet Union. You mention the uncertainty about borders and of course that’s true but how is that an excuse to agree to a flimsy peace deal? That’s not how to navigate uncertainty, not by chasing flimsy political wins with morons by parading how you’re saving lives. Stopping killing in the short term this way will lead to far more dead and the destruction of several countries in the 2030s. What we have now is division and what will amount to a cease fire where a wider war will start again because all the unsustainable conditions are there for a new war to start the moment Russia can build back its military with Chinese tech and recruit more minority soldiers from the stans of Russia and North Korea. Russia plans to expand its borders more or less up until they reach where the iron curtain geographically stood. In their minds it’s their land and they are entitled to rule over it and take it back by force. They will wait for an idiot like Trump to weaken relations and then test NATO by shooting some missiles at Poland or something and then gage the response. They will poke for weaknesses until they feel comfortable to go into the baltics and further into Ukraine. This is exactly what will happen if Putin gets what he wants. 

[Hatfort]

5 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

What’s mutually beneficial to Ukraine or the USA by abandoning an ally and setting up a peace deal that’s likely to be broken by Russia the moment they smell weakness? which is exactly what this is. A cease fire benefits Russia just as much because they will be able to rebuild and there is absolutely nothing to trust about them saying they are fine with whatever deal is reached. It’s pretty clear in their minds they believe they are entitled to annex land from all countries that were part of the Soviet Union. You mention the uncertainty about borders and of course that’s true but how is that an excuse to agree to a flimsy peace deal? That’s not how to navigate uncertainty, not by chasing flimsy political wins with morons by parading how you’re saving lives. Stopping killing in the short term this way will lead to far more dead and the destruction of several countries in the 2030s. What we have now is division and what will amount to a cease fire where a wider war will start again because all the unsustainable conditions are there for a new war to start the moment Russia can build back its military with Chinese tech and recruit more minority soldiers from the stans of Russia and North Korea. Russia plans to expand its borders more or less up until they reach where the iron curtain geographically stood. In their minds it’s their land and they are entitled to rule over it and take it back by force. They will wait for an idiot like Trump to weaken relations and then test NATO by shooting some missiles at Poland or something and then gage the response. They will poke for weaknesses until they feel comfortable to go into the baltics and further into Ukraine. This is exactly what will happen if Putin gets what he wants. 

I was just explaining what the terms mean. 

In this case, if one of the two sides doesn't want a peace deal, the war continues. Don't expect a ceasefire though.

[Raze]

33 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

What’s mutually beneficial to Ukraine or the USA by abandoning an ally and setting up a peace deal that’s likely to be broken by Russia the moment they smell weakness? which is exactly what this is. A cease fire benefits Russia just as much because they will be able to rebuild and there is absolutely nothing to trust about them saying they are fine with whatever deal is reached. It’s pretty clear in their minds they believe they are entitled to annex land from all countries that were part of the Soviet Union. You mention the uncertainty about borders and of course that’s true but how is that an excuse to agree to a flimsy peace deal? That’s not how to navigate uncertainty, not by chasing flimsy political wins with morons by parading how you’re saving lives. Stopping killing in the short term this way will lead to far more dead and the destruction of several countries in the 2030s. What we have now is division and what will amount to a cease fire where a wider war will start again because all the unsustainable conditions are there for a new war to start the moment Russia can build back its military with Chinese tech and recruit more minority soldiers from the stans of Russia and North Korea. Russia plans to expand its borders more or less up until they reach where the iron curtain geographically stood. In their minds it’s their land and they are entitled to rule over it and take it back by force. They will wait for an idiot like Trump to weaken relations and then test NATO by shooting some missiles at Poland or something and then gage the response. They will poke for weaknesses until they feel comfortable to go into the baltics and further into Ukraine. This is exactly what will happen if Putin gets what he wants. 

1) what if part of the ceasefire agreement involves Russia reducing its military capacity? Would you still think that is there goal?

2) so what is the alternate, just keep throwing Ukrainians at them hoping to bleed them out more before Ukraine runs out?

[Lyubov]

28 minutes ago, Raze said:

1) what if part of the ceasefire agreement involves Russia reducing its military capacity? Would you still think that is there goal?

2) so what is the alternate, just keep throwing Ukrainians at them hoping to bleed them out more before Ukraine runs out?

1) I don’t believe Russia will ever agree to that nor would it occur in reality even if they agreed to it in some form on paper. Russia has no incentive concede anything nor are they in the position to now. Trump just wants a bullshit ceasefire for a quick political win and Russia will build up its army again and go back in. 

2) This is why this situation is so fucked. It’s like one of those animal traps where if the animal moves it gets more and more stuck. There is no clear path towards lasting peace from this. The only path there is for Europe is to prepare for an inevitability bigger war with Russia. I’ve accepted that there is going to be another war there and am just hoping Europe starts preparing for it; that’s all. 

[Raze]

15 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

2) This is why this situation is so fucked. It’s like one of those animal traps where if the animal moves it gets more and more stuck. There is no clear path towards lasting peace from this. The only path there is for Europe is to prepare for an inevitability bigger war with Russia. I’ve accepted that there is going to be another war there and am just hoping Europe starts preparing for it; that’s all. 

If that was true Russia would have begun the military buildup before invading Ukraine, not prior. Russia trying to take on NATO would be suicidal.

Edited Sunday at 09:22 PM by Raze

[Lyubov]

36 minutes ago, Raze said:

If that was true Russia would have begun the military buildup before invading Ukraine, not prior. Russia trying to take on NATO would be suicidal.

Russia can only spin so many plates at once. They aren’t trying to hit NATO with a knock out punch. It’s not possible and they don’t have the resources for that. They are trying to undermine NATO and exploit fractures in it. Someone like Trump weakens the alliance so much with his ambiguity and clear lack of support. You’re telling me a Trump lead USA will lead NATO to defending itself or giving an appropriate response if say Putin fires a few missles at Estonia or Poland or sink a few ships in the Black Sea? He will hand wave it and say they haven’t paid enough for our protection and the alliance will be basically dead even if it’s still on paper. He isn’t trying to conquer Europe. He’s trying to chip away at it and claim parts of countries closer to his sphere of influence. 

[puporing]

 

[PurpleTree]

47 minutes ago, Lyubov said:

Russia can only spin so many plates at once. They aren’t trying to hit NATO with a knock out punch. It’s not possible and they don’t have the resources for that. They are trying to undermine NATO and exploit fractures in it. Someone like Trump weakens the alliance so much with his ambiguity and clear lack of support. You’re telling me a Trump lead USA will lead NATO to defending itself or giving an appropriate response if say Putin fires a few missles at Estonia or Poland or sink a few ships in the Black Sea? He will hand wave it and say they haven’t paid enough for our protection and the alliance will be basically dead even if it’s still on paper. He isn’t trying to conquer Europe. He’s trying to chip away at it and claim parts of countries closer to his sphere of influence. 

Yea and also with relentless propaganda, misinformation, trying to influence people and parties. Chipping away at democracy and so on.

[Elliott]

 

 

 

[PurpleTree]

 

[Lyubov]

Many of you blabber about how “AMERICA HEGEMONY BAD” as if somehow making it fair for Russia is going to lead to a more peaceful world. They are going to keep coming for more land. Some of you guys in here can barely stomach supporting Ukraine with your tax dollars. You think such people will stand and fight in a war? I don’t possibly see Europeans having a stomach to stand up and fight when Russia rolls in. More of Ukraine and the Baltics are next. NATO is done after Trump. Europe start arming yourself. 

[PurpleTree]

Trump the traitor 

[Raze]

On 2/16/2025 at 5:51 PM, PurpleTree said:

Yea and also with relentless propaganda, misinformation, trying to influence people and parties. Chipping away at democracy and so on.

You’ve bought NATO propaganda completely to the point where you don’t engage with any other perspective because you consider it Russian propaganda.

They were also saying Ukraine is winning, what happened to that? If they can lie to you about that they can lie to you about other things.

[Raze]

Trump is exploding the national security establishment. From forcing a ceasefire in Gaza revealing the US could have at any time, to openly admitting the US was supporting Israel doing ethnic cleansing, to now pushing for peace in Ukraine which is making Europe panic as they had gone along with US pressure to push for continuing the Ukraine war, if the ceasefire is achieved now by stopping Ukraine joining NATO and remaining neutral and Russia doesn’t keep pushing it’ll collapse their entire narrative that the war was necessary to stop future Russian aggression and wasn’t because of NATO expansion. Because of their opposition to Trump and Russiaphilic far right European parties,  the mainstream left in the US and Europe reflexively comes hard against all of these moves, unwittingly positioning themselves as the hawkish pro-war parties to the masses who have grown more skeptical of wars of Choice and isolationist.

The big fear I have is that this abandoning of Europe and trying to quiet the Middle East is in order to direct aggression on Asia to stop a rising China. If China responds in kind it can quickly spiral into disaster.

Edited 13 hours ago by Raze

[Lyubov]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

You’ve bought NATO propaganda completely to the point where you don’t engage with any other perspective because you consider it Russian propaganda.

They were also saying Ukraine is winning, what happened to that? If they can lie to you about that they can lie to you about other things.

That was 2 years ago…. Wars change you know? What are you even on about? A lot has happened since 2023. No one has been saying Ukraine has the upper hand since spring 2023 before their failed counter offensive. Western media has been saying Ukraine is in a dire situation for a while now. You’re just throwing out falsehoods now to back up your point. 

Edited 12 hours ago by Lyubov

[zazen]

4 hours ago, Raze said:

Trump is exploding the national security establishment. From forcing a ceasefire in Gaza revealing the US could have at any time, to openly admitting the US was supporting Israel doing ethnic cleansing, to now pushing for peace in Ukraine which is making Europe panic as they had gone along with US pressure to push for continuing the Ukraine war, if the ceasefire is achieved now by stopping Ukraine joining NATO and remaining neutral and Russia doesn’t keep pushing it’ll collapse their entire narrative that the war was necessary to stop future Russian aggression and wasn’t because of NATO expansion. Because of their opposition to Trump and Russiaphilic far right European parties,  the mainstream left in the US and Europe reflexively comes hard against all of these moves, unwittingly positioning themselves as the hawkish pro-war parties to the masses who have grown more skeptical of wars of Choice and isolationist.

The big fear I have is that this abandoning of Europe and trying to quiet the Middle East is in order to direct aggression on Asia to stop a rising China. If China responds in kind it can quickly spiral into disaster.

Nice summary. How can anyone be mad about US and Russia diplomatically coming to the table to stop the war and killing, and more widely mend their relations and defrost this Cold War atmosphere that’s lingering for no good reason. The Biden admin didn’t communicate with Russia for 3 years since the war began, yet Trump has done so in 3 weeks.

It’s good Trump is in talks with Russia, it’s bad he’s in talks without the key players involved whose security architecture is affected - Ukraine and the EU more widely. How can Person A and B decide the fate of person C? Perhaps Ukraine and Europe had their chance but showed no sign of being open to engage in talks…Zelenskyy literally signed a decree banning  negotiations with Putin.

Further to your point about China - it’s positive for war to stop, but not if it’s solely to stop one in order to get ready for the next one. Rubio even mentioned that we are in a era of multipolarity, that doesn’t mean many will happily sit by and do nothing about that changing reality.

Wild times with what Trump and Elon (sharing Jeffrey Sachs) are posting: 

Edited 9 hours ago by zazen

[PurpleTree]

5 hours ago, Raze said:

You’ve bought NATO propaganda completely to the point where you don’t engage with any other perspective because you consider it Russian propaganda.

They were also saying Ukraine is winning, what happened to that? If they can lie to you about that they can lie to you about other things.

They haven’t really said that Ukraine is winning though.

They said Russias 3 day military operation turned into a brutal 3 year meat grinder. (In which Russia is the attacker and aggressor)

And now the Russians also have lost parts of Kursk and have to use North Korean boys.

 

[PurpleTree]

3 hours ago, Lyubov said:

That was 2 years ago…. Wars change you know? What are you even on about? A lot has happened since 2023. No one has been saying Ukraine has the upper hand since spring 2023 before their failed counter offensive. Western media has been saying Ukraine is in a dire situation for a while now. You’re just throwing out falsehoods now to back up your point. 

Yea i think i‘ll have to put him on my glorious ignore list too soon. He’s just regurgitating Russian/Putin propaganda it’s boring.