Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[Leo Gura]

9 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

and NATO will lose.

Bro... get real.

Russia could not conquer a colony of ants.

Russians are hella incompetent.

Edited Tuesday at 03:16 AM by Leo Gura

[Bobby_2021]

9 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Bro... get real.

Russia could not conquer a colony of ants.

Russians are hella incompetent.

And NATO got whopped by the Taliban, what is your point? 

The only thing that matters is that they set out objectives and they got it. 

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

And NATO got whopped by the Taliban,

Nah. That's just a function of nobody in NATO caring about Afghanistan anymore.

NATO is not supposed to be invading places anyway. It's purpose is defensive.

Of course Americans cannot invade and occupy a foreign land indefinitely on the other side of the planet.

Edited Tuesday at 03:32 AM by Leo Gura

[Bobby_2021]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Nah. That's just a function of nobody in NATO caring about Afghanistan anymore.

NATO is not supposed to be invading places anyway. It's purpose is defensive.

Of course Americans cannot invade and occupy a foreign land indefinitely on the other side of the planet.

There is more to the story. Why cannot IDF defeat Hamas despite having so many resources poured into it? Apparently, they claim to be the best high tech military in the whole world. 

All these advanced militaries have little experience with an actual head-to-head ground level bloody conflict. All NATO, US flexing is about fighter jets dropping bombs from above, levelling places to the ground or specialized military operations.

In actual ground level conflict, what matters is real experience fighting head-to-head. Attrition. Drone warfare. Do you really think western gen z is patriotic enough to lose their lives over some stupid conflict? They do not have what it takes to sustain a long bloody conflict. 

35 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia could not conquer a colony of ants.

And Ukraine Russia war is a NATO Russia war. Pretending that the Russians are fighting a "colony of ants" is gross reductionism, unless that colony of ants is NATO.

NATO is not merely funding the war; they are coordinating it as well. They are providing intel support. NATO personal is helping fire ATACMS missiles that are deeply integrated with NATOs own command and control. 

[Leo Gura]

12 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

In actual ground level conflict, what matters is real experience fighting head-to-head.

Agreed.

But also what matters is tech, logistics, professionalism, corruption.

Russia sucks at logistics, professionalism, tech, and corruption. They can't even arm their troops properly. Sending in hordes of psychopath convicts to storm trenches! Threatening to shoot their own men! It's an amature hour shitshow.

The only serious threat from Russia is nukes. And even those nukes are dubious in their reliability. Half of Russia's nukes would probably fail to fly from sheer disrepair and corruption.

Edited Tuesday at 04:05 AM by Leo Gura

[shree]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The only serious threat from Russia is nukes. And even those nukes are dubious in their reliability.

The problem is, only one of the 2,000 nukes they have is needed to trigger retaliation, panic, and global conflict, destabilizing the world.

Though I can’t help but laugh imagining their own nukes failing or exploding at launch lol

Edited Tuesday at 12:09 PM by shree

[Lyubov]

that is not a theory I’d ever want to test but man what if Russia tried to do something with their nukes and they didn’t even work because people in their military pocketed all the cash to maintain them. 

[Leo Gura]

Of course some of their nukes would work, so that's not gonna save us, but I'm confident many would fail from disrepair. This is just to underscore their overall incompetence. How they do one thing is how they do everything.

A competent military would never resort to using convicts to do their fighting. I don't even think the US did that during WW2. That's just embarassing to morale. Imagine fighting alongside rapists and child molesters in your squad. How cringe.

What is Russia gonna do? Conquer Poland with platoons of rapists?

Edited Tuesday at 03:13 PM by Leo Gura

[Hatfort]

Russia is totally winning the war, Ukraine got the best NATO could provide, but the size and number of men was unbeatable from the begining. Maybe if the simultaneous economic war had worked, then it could have collapsed Russia or at least Putin's government, but not even close, their economy adapted well to new partners in their East and South, and Putin has more popular support than ever, and I'm not surprised. Russia is not incompetent at war, maybe at the beginning yes, and had to deal with these war-oligarchs like the Wagner group which were indeed composed by a lot of ex-convicts, but they were nationalized and integrated into the army at the point where their leader almost revolted. Another point for Putin and Russia. The war isn't over, but Russia keeps gaining the land it wants nonstop, and will continue to doing so as far as the other side doesn't sit, which is what matters in an attrition war that one side can maintain longer than the other.

Negotiations for a peaceful resolution were done and almost achieved, but we know now the US and NATO said no, before the war, and almost after it started. Clearly after the failed counteroffensive, it has just been sending the Ukranian youth to die for nothing. Of course Russia has paid a high price of their own men too, they haven't bomb-carpeted the country like Israel does, they've mostly fought the old-fashioned army against army war, which does minimize the civilian casualties, but increases your military ones.

Russia having nukes doesn't give it the victory, it deters others from using them on their soil, and it works both ways. Yeah, if it didn't have them, NATO would have gone much harder on them with long-range artillery at least, or even nuking two cities like in Japan so they surrender inconditionally. But obviously it has them, so it doesn't get that far.

Russia is not weak, NATO can't really fight a war like Russia has, no way a Western country including the US can morally and socially afford to put in line the proportionate number of men that Russia has in this war without collapsing. Their only option is to fight proxy wars, but Ukraine was the best card for that, and they've lost. A small country like Georgia wouldn't work, which was in the plans as next, but it's obviously much smaller and with worse connections with the West. Russia is not interested in getting more land though, but it won't allow more the facto NATO countries in their border. The only thing remaining for Ukraine was to make it official in a few years, it was already NATO in every way, so in a sense Russia's best option was to do what it did before that happened, because then it wouldn't be a proxy war, but Russia VS. NATO war all in, with probably disastrous consequences worldwide.

Edited Tuesday at 03:33 PM by Hatfort

[Bobby_2021]

You don't know the competency of NATO unless you see them in an actual war. US has not had a conclusive victory in any of the conflicts it has engaged in since ww2. 

[Carpet bombing an entire country in a fighter jet like a coward don't count.]

33 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

What is Russia gonna do? Conquer Poland with platoons of rapists?

There is no threat from direct threat from Russia as of now.

But just imagine, Russia despite all it's incompetence defeating NATO/Ukraine. This is destabilizing NATO from the inside.

At the end of the day it's all about accomplishing the set objectives. The only things that matter is if meet your objectives. 

[Leo Gura]

23 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

But just imagine, Russia despite all it's incompetence defeating NATO/Ukraine. This is destabilizing NATO from the inside.

That's not a serious threat.

Russia lost something like 500,000 men to take some small chunks of Slavic border territory. This in no way destabilizes or undermines NATO. Projections were that Russia would overrun Ukraine in a week. Russia has failed miserably, even though they might end up taking that bit of land.

What Putin showed is that the threat of him conquering Europe is a joke. And NATO is stronger than ever. NATO got valuable intel about Russian and Western capabilities in this war. Now NATO will adjust its military for drone warfare and anti-tank warfare. This is a net win for NATO because NATO has better tech capabilities going forward.

From what I understand, the entire US military strategy will change from this war, with a strong focus on drones and anti-tank weapons. The US military will be going all-in on drones, AI, and such, moving away from traditional weapons of war like tanks and manned fighter jets. The US will dominate in AI warfare and Russia will not be able to keep up. The Ukraine war has made expensive tanks and military machines obsolete. The future is cheap, light, AI-driven warfare with anti-tank missiles.

Edited Tuesday at 03:55 PM by Leo Gura

[Husseinisdoingfine]

I have a serious and genuine question regarding drone warfare, and this is, can't you just use shotguns (to combat the drones) and render the drones obsolete?

 Like... If a soldier in Ukraine see's a drone flying at them that's rigged to blow, couldn't that soldier just get their dad's shotgun from the basement and go duck hunting? 

Why doesn't every battalion have at least one guy with a shotgun?

[Leo Gura]

@Husseinisdoingfine Imagine a swarms of 20 drones flying at you.

That's where this is headed.

Swarm warfare.

You could even put little rockets on the drone.

You could also make wheeled ground drones. That has huge potential because the problem with flying drones is that they are very noisy while ground drones can be silent and stealthy.

Edited Tuesday at 04:08 PM by Leo Gura

[Husseinisdoingfine]

Yeah, but most of the videos I see one Reddit and Telegram are of a single drone chasing down a single guy for whom most of the time doesn't even shoot back. Or if he does shoot back with his outdated Kalashnikov, he misses all of the shots.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1fd2ewu/russian_soldiers_fail_to_down_drone_so_one_throws/

Edited Tuesday at 04:11 PM by Husseinisdoingfine

[Leo Gura]

11 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Yeah, but most of the videos I see one Reddit and Telegram are of a single drone chasing down a single guy for who most of the time doesn't even shoot back. Or if he does shoot back with his outdated Kalashnikov, he misses all of the shots.

There will definitely be a new arms race here of drone vs anti-drone technology. An armored drone could probably be made to withstand a shotgun.

Ideally you want drones that fire at range, not just drop stuff overhead. Little short-range rockets or just a small turret.

The drones being used in Ukraine right now are just the first generation. They are very shitty compared to what's coming.

Edited Tuesday at 04:19 PM by Leo Gura

[Husseinisdoingfine]

This soldier in the video below has the right idea.

 

[Husseinisdoingfine]

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia sucks at logistics, professionalism, tech, and corruption. They can't even arm their troops properly. Sending in hordes of psychopath convicts to storm trenches! Threatening to shoot their own men! It's an amature hour shitshow.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1hkr4av/russian_elite_army_demonstrates_peak_physical/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1hfzb2k/elderly_russian_soldiers_struggling_to_insert/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14ojv68/captured_russians_and_their_historical_artifacts/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1e8ga2d/trophy_russian_weapons_from_a_frontline/

Edited Tuesday at 04:32 PM by Husseinisdoingfine

[Hatfort]

40 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

That's not a serious threat.

Russia lost something like 500,000 men to take some small chunks of Slavic border territory. This in no way destabilizes or undermines NATO. Projections were that Russia would overrun Ukraine in a week. Russia has failed miserably, even though they might end up taking that bit of land.

What Putin showed is that the threat of him conquering Europe is a joke. And NATO is stronger than ever. NATO got valuable intel about Russian and Western capabilities in this war. Now NATO will adjust its military for drone warfare and anti-tank warfare. This is a net win for NATO because NATO has better tech capabilities going forward.

From what I understand, the entire US military strategy will change from this war, with a strong focus on drones and anti-tank weapons. The US military will be going all-in on drones, AI, and such, moving away from traditional weapons of war like tanks and manned fighter jets. The US will dominate in AI warfare and Russia will not be able to keep up. The Ukraine war has made expensive tanks and military machines obsolete. The future is cheap, light, AI-driven warfare with anti-tank missiles.

After the week you mention passed, projections were that Russia would inevitably get a humiliating loss, Putin would be overridden and every country around including Ukraine would join NATO, now for good reasons. But no, Russia is winning, it got the Azov Sea and Crimea secured, and quite more than the Donbas integrated. Paid the price and won, Ukraine paid the price and lost, the US military industry made good business, and Europe is now more its bitch than it was before, although not a strong one.

So NATO is stronger than ever... but it's not winning this war. The only thing NATO can do is carpet bomb poor countries. Against developed opponents, that's another game that no way can win. The technology race is already happening and these big ones are not behind, and they also have nukes like NATO has.

This win is for Russia, it wasn't free, but it was, and quite big. It gets out of this war stronger than it was before, it has the capacity to recover demografically, and less dependency to what are their let's say rivals. I don't buy the 500.000 number either, but even if that was true, and not propaganda, it doesn't change all the rest.

[The Crocodile]

3 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

it got the Azov Sea and Crimea secured

Wasn't it supposed to have that secured like ten years ago?

And weren't they supposed to have toppled Kyiv in a few days or weeks in February 2022? But it's been a stalemate for two years until the Ukrainians were given the ahead to basically do whatever they want.

But . . . now they have Ukrainian troops in Russia and assassins in Russia? With generals and administrators getting killed in both combat and assassinations?

And the scary American drone technology being superior, just able to kill numerous numbers of Russian soldiers and destroy columns of tanks in minutes?

Any contradiction of this just seems like blatant arbitrary pro-East anti-West propaganda.

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

After the week you mention passed, projections were that Russia would inevitably get a humiliating loss, Putin would be overridden and every country around including Ukraine would join NATO

What a wild exaggeration.