Latest Ukraine/Russia Thread

[BlueOak]

17 hours ago, zazen said:

@BlueOak I haven't justified their actions, just attempted to understand them and what can possibly lead to them. As a Westerner myself, I must confront what my own corner of the planet does, as that's the only possible chance at changing outcomes I have - via the ballot box rather than the bullet. At least that's what sold to us, that we're in a Democracy.. but even then, we don't get to vote on national security or challenges to corporate domination, or are lied to about being able to.

Just look at the recent government petition ballooning up to nearly 3 million signatures for a call for a general election in the UK - after only a few months of Labour being in power. The people were lied to and Starmer went against his campaign promises. Europe is economically struggling and we are expected to fight a war for elites that are despised and getting us into this mess with their warmongering rhetoric - https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143

The hysteria about Russia’s  imperialism is misguided. Historically, Russia isn’t the imperialist boogeyman it’s made out to be. They expanded centuries ago, just as every major power did when borders were drawn with swords and daggers. But using today’s moral standards to vilify actions that were universal in a time of conquest is unfair. By that logic, Britain, France, Spain, and the United States would also be guilty of imperialist sins that dwarf anything Russia has done. Yet we don't hear calls to roll back the US empire with it's 800 bases. Because such criticisms are selectively applied to fit the current narrative of Western hegemony.

Russia is aging rapidly with a shrinking population. Their demographics are so poor they’ve been handing out incentives to encourage people to have children. That doesn't sound like a country gearing up to expand its borders for empire. Empires expand when they’re young, dynamic, and have surplus manpower. That’s the historical record. From Rome to the British Empire to the Mongols, expansion has always been fueled by youthful demographics. No empire in history has gone on a conquering spree with a population.

Russia is already the largest country on Earth. Its borders stretch across 11 time zones, from the Baltic to the Pacific. What would they gain by expanding into areas they’d have to station men in (which they have less of) manage, and maintain? Empire building isn’t just about taking land - it’s about holding it. That requires boots on the ground, manpower at checkpoints, and resources to fund it all - which as you've pointed out they have less of with a collapsing economy. With their declining population and weakening economy Russia doesn’t have the bodies or the appetite for such a burden. They have neither the demographics nor the need.

They do have an abundance of resources and a lucrative trading relationship with Asia. Why risk all that for a dream of territorial conquest? Russia is far more focused on securing its existing borders and protecting its sphere of influence within its neighborhood. Influence is different from intervention and imperialism which is what the West largely engage in.

sWestern pundits moralize about Russia’s historical expansions while conveniently ignoring their own nations colonial rampages. The British Empire didn’t just expand - it plundered, enslaved, and subjugated. The United States annexed half of Mexico and toppled governments from Guatemala to Iraq. Yet somehow, only Russia’s actions are put under the microscope.

The context today is that we live in a world of nation states with largely settled borders. Expanding territory today isn’t just taboo - it’s counterproductive. Russia knows this. They’re not marching westward in some Tsarist fantasy. They’re protecting their interests in regions like Crimea and Donbass, areas tied to their security and identity. These are defensive, not imperialist, actions - driven by NATO’s provocations, not a desire for global domination.

If anything, the real question isn’t why Russia is acting as it does - it’s why the West refuses to see the obvious. A shrinking, aging country with no demographic fuel for expansion, already sitting on more resources than it can use, has no logical reason to embark on imperialist conquests. The caricature of Russia as a marauding empire is a propaganda tool, designed to justify the endless militarization of NATO and deflect attention from Western failures.

Russia has no need to expand. They’re not the ones projecting military power across the globe - they’re securing their own backyard. And while Western powers cry imperialism, they might want to take a look in the mirror. If Russia’s actions are imperialist, then what are the United State's actions? 

Russia has had 8 wars to establish control over former USSR territories; if that isn't expansion, tell me what is?
I go by people's actions more than their words, of which there have also been plenty of threats from Spain to Alaska.

Russia projects military power across the globe. That's what most wars we all hate America getting into are all about—fighting Russia-influenced or backed regimes.

Why is there a need for me to tell you America is psychopathic when seen in an expanded context? Is this for a wider audience, or are you trying to genuinely convince me of this? Because you can stop there. China, America, Russia, the UK and France every world power acts as if the only way to exist in the world is to club the other guy. As i've said many times Russia has done plenty of meddling in nations, they just do it with guns, training, special forces, assassinations, intelligence data, and money, rather than big pompous nation-building exercises that people watch on TV and get annoyed about (mostly, unless Russia is hitting an underdeveloped African nation in turmoil or they just want to eradicate population centers aka gassing Syrian rebels, Bombing Chechen fighters or Drone striking Ukrainian cities).

The real question is why do countries act like they do, a better question than that is how to change it
The answer to your question i've said 5 times now at least. People need to villainize the other side to fight them. Which is what most of the energy of these threads are focused on.

Their bad we are good. I could just write that in place of most of these posts, then my various attempts to get people to realise the futility of that. That's 90% of your post. These guys were bad, so that justified what we do next. This is a terrible place of reasoning to be in.

There are a multitude of reasons for this war, but one you point out is to shrink their border with NATO so they can more easily guard it, while having a shrinking population. Actually, many empires try one last push before they sputter out, Mongols, the British, the Americans, Rome, Greeks, and the Russians—it happened all through history. In the wider context, this war is the acceleration of Russia's shrinking.

It obviously has the appetite for such a burden because it's doing it right now.

If you are going to say Russia's actions are defensive, then i'll say Eastern Europe's actions are defensive and ergo their allies. Invading another country is not defensive, I don't care how you spin it.

Edited November 30 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

20 hours ago, zazen said:

The hysteria about Russia’s  imperialism is misguided

Yes.

21 hours ago, zazen said:

By isolating one dramatic event and erasing the chain of provocations, the narrative gets flipped.

This. 

Everything happens in a vaccum. That's the only way they get to justify their atrocities.

20 hours ago, zazen said:

shrinking, aging country with no demographic fuel for expansion, already sitting on more resources than it can use, has no logical reason to embark on imperialist conquests.

Russia wanting more land has to be the biggest joke of all. 

 

[Scholar]

9 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Yes.

This. 

Everything happens in a vaccum. That's the only way they get to justify their atrocities.

Russia wanting more land has to be the biggest joke of all. 

 

I love how you guys will create entire narratives around victimization when Russia and Putin themselves do not engage in it. They themselves won't come up with the nonsense you guys are to justify this war.

[BlueOak]

2 hours ago, Scholar said:

I love how you guys will create entire narratives around victimization when Russia and Putin themselves do not engage in it. They themselves won't come up with the nonsense you guys are to justify this war.

Well put, I think the victim mindset would probably offend Putin.

[PurpleTree]

It really is seemingly just like a huge game of chess.

„Things are moving fast“

[PurpleTree]

 

[BlueOak]

I would say this is a neutral tone from a fiance site with a minor update.
https://fortune.com/2024/11/30/ruble-collapse-currency-crisis-penny-us-dollar-wealth-fund-vladimir-putin/

I am not a person that thinks the country collapses, its got too many partners propping it up, but I do repeatedly say the decline in Russia is going to be sped up because too many people want that to happen.


Another Update:
 

 

Edited December 1 by BlueOak

[Hatfort]

@BlueOak

The Ruble is not collapsing. It's been doing well since it recovered from the sanctions which didn't work, its general trend is good.

Here I attach two graphs, the first one is for five years, we can clearly see there was a huge pump and collapse when the war started in February and March 2022, but then it recovered to a better level than what it was before. I also attached the one-month one, to see if there is a collapse right now, but there is not, there is an up-and-down, but the value is better now than at the beginning of the last month, despite the slope. We'll see if there's a collapse, but right now, there is not. You are being fed propaganda, which you spread too.

Edited December 1 by Hatfort

[Bobby_2021]

15 hours ago, Scholar said:

I love how you guys will create entire narratives around victimization when Russia and Putin themselves do not engage in it. They themselves won't come up with the nonsense you guys are to justify this war.

Nothing here is as simple as victim oppressors narrative. 

You couldn't comprehend the simple fact that NATO is an existential threat for Russia, so it is a good idea to not include Ukraine into NATO.

Russia will take the necessary steps to make sure that NATO will not take in Ukraine.

[Bobby_2021]

Zelenskyy's tone is changing. Now he is entertaining conceding territories in exchange for NATO membership.

This idea was Russian propaganda a couple of months ago. Soon enough he would need to concede land without NATO.

Zelenskyy comments about Russian-held territory ‘a major concession’, says ex-UK ambassador – as it happened https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/nov/30/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-nato-peace-putin-latest-news?CMP=share_btn_url

 

[Karmadhi]

@Hatfort The amount of anti Russian propaganda I see regarding the Rubble is insane.

Since 2021 there has been maybe a 30% devaluation.

Other currencies like the Egyptian pound have had a 300 to 400% devaluation yet nobody says it is collapsing.

Pure bias.

[Karmadhi]

8 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Zelenskyy's tone is changing. Now he is entertaining conceding territories in exchange for NATO membership.

 

How do you see the war ending realistically?

[BlueOak]

@Hatfort

You can't trade the ruble anymore till 2025 due to hyperinflation; all trading has been ceased. Interests rates are above 20%. You will see no changes because nothing can change. This was an emergency measure to stop it crashing.

Honestly I think you have blinders on if you think this is a healthy economy, there are not many on planet Earth right now least of all this one with the work force being killed off and a large percentage of GDP going into dead production like missiles.

Beyond that Hatfort I'm fed up with the personal insults, so on this topic I am done communicating with you.
 

2 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

@Hatfort The amount of anti Russian propaganda I see regarding the Rubble is insane.

Since 2021 there has been maybe a 30% devaluation.

Other currencies like the Egyptian pound have had a 300 to 400% devaluation yet nobody says it is collapsing.

Pure bias.

I don't know how much you understand about economics. A 30% drop can quite easily kill an economy or send it to ruin. It does, however, make the fuel more attractive, but seeings as Russia imports most everything beyond the basics, the quality of life past the basics will become increasingly hard to afford.

I am no expert but the squeeze here seems to be on Gazprom, as that was what was keeping this import/export balance with a weak currency in the black. With it Russia could always seem to tip the scales, now it's more sanctioned the balance has gone the other way.

Edited December 1 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

7 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

How do you see the war ending realistically?

A couple of possibilities exist but the most likely scenario right now looks like Unconditional surrender of Ukrainian army and/or internal collapse. 

This has been a failing game for UA since day one. 

Things can change if west, UA is actually willing to sit down with Putin and discuss with them instead of name calling them. You might have observed that the tone is indeed changing among the EU (Olaf Sholz talked to Putin on phone) and Zelenskyy is entertaining giving up territory.  

It is quite hard to predict how exactly thing will go with Trump, but 2025 will definitely see the end of it. In general I am far more hopeful with Trump in power than with Biden who has been a clown in dealing with this situation.

[Bobby_2021]

Quote

>And despite weeks of reports suggesting that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk to join the Russian counter-offensive, **the soldiers we’ve been in contact have yet to encounter them.**

>“**I haven’t seen or heard anything about Koreans, alive or dead,**” Vadym responded when we asked about the reports.

>The Ukrainian military has released recordings which it says are intercepts of North Korean radio communications.

>Soldiers said they had been told to capture at least one North Korean prisoner, preferably with documents.

>They spoke of rewards - drones or extra leave - being offered to anyone who successfully captures a North Korean soldier.

>“It’s very difficult to find a Korean in the dark Kursk forest,” Pavlo noted sarcastically. “**Especially if he’s not here.**”

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x9gz4ylwo

North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine was western propaganda, possibly so that they can accuse Russia of escalation and fire ATACMS into sovereign Russian territory.

[PurpleTree]

"We don’t want to be part of Russia"

 

[Bobby_2021]

Reasonable talk or Russian Propaganda.. based on who you are!

 

 

[PurpleTree]

 

[PurpleTree]

I’ll just put this here because of Russian interference.

Romania

[Nemra]

On 12/3/2024 at 4:58 PM, Bobby_2021 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x9gz4ylwo

North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine was western propaganda, possibly so that they can accuse Russia of escalation and fire ATACMS into sovereign Russian territory.

You also said that North Koreans going to Russia is also propaganda, as I remember.

It seems that you always want to see anything propaganda that is from the West when you don't like it.