Kamala-Trump Debate

[Joshe]

14 hours ago, BlueOak said:

They will have to do better than random nazi quoted cat eating though. That was just laziness at its best to pull that one and run with it.

😂

[Leo Gura]

[Emerald]

1 hour ago, Joshe said:

In the betting markets? I didn't know that. 

Yes, in the betting markets. They were always close and Trump pulled ahead by a few points after a couple weeks in August with Kamala being tied or one point favored.

[Joshe]

2 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Yes, in the betting markets. They were always close and Trump pulled ahead by a few points after a couple weeks in August with Kamala being tied or one point favored.

Ahh, shux. Thanks. I'll correct that. 

[Joshe]

This is interesting: https://virtualtout.com/

• Prediction of a Democratic landslide: The forecast shifted to a Democratic landslide after the Trump-Harris debate on September 10.
• Difference in methodology: The Virtual Tout® uses prediction markets, not polls, for forecasts. Polls reflect past sentiments, while prediction markets anticipate future events, akin to stock markets predicting economic trends.
• Impact of Trump’s legal issues: Trump’s legal affairs, like the delay in his sentencing in the New York “hush money” case, influenced a drop in forecasted Electoral College votes for Democrats.
• Effect of key events on election forecasts:
  • September 10 debate between Trump and Harris (67.1 million viewers) shifted predicted votes significantly in favor of the Democrats.
  • Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on the same day, further increasing Democratic votes.
• Media coverage and campaign messaging: Headlines on September 12 emphasized stark differences in messaging:
  • Trump: "U.S. Is Failing"
  • Harris: "There’s Hope"
• Billie Eilish endorsement
• Federal Reserve's interest rate cut: On September 18, the Fed's half-point rate cut was the first since the pandemic and is expected to boost economic growth in late 2024.
• Electoral College forecasts (September 1–18):
  • September 1: Harris/Walz (374) vs. Trump/Vance (164).
  • September 10: Harris/Walz (400) vs. Trump/Vance (138).
  • September 18: Harris/Walz (449) vs. Trump/Vance (89).
• Market trading volume spikes: Significant trading volumes were seen in prediction markets on July 21 (Biden withdrew from the race) and September 10 (Trump-Harris debate and Swift's endorsement).
• Dramatic shift in forecasts: Predictions moved from a possible Republican landslide in mid-July to a Democratic landslide in just a few months.
• Updates until election day: The Virtual Tout® will continue tracking and publishing daily forecasts based on prediction market prices until November 5, 2024.

Edited Friday at 05:16 AM by Joshe

[El Zapato]

@Joshe I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

[UnbornTao]

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

 

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Nooo Eugenio! (the cat)

[LoseYourvelf]

1 minute ago, UnbornTao said:

Nooo Eugenio! (the cat)

Mfer ate-ing Eugenio what in the eff

[Fearey]

3 hours ago, El Zapato said:

@Joshe I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

The supposed "facts over feelings" gang, doing everything they can to change subject or attack the person whenever true factual statements are being brought up. Like for example, if you try to ask a Trump supporter what they think of January 6th. 99% of them will either disagree on the facts of what happened that day, or they will excuse Trump saying he didn't make them do what they did. If you keep going, they will usually get pretty mad at you, spin their own made-up version of what happened or change the subject.

I think a small portion of his supporters actually know what he did, and know the facts, and support him anyway, because they are far-right fascists that want a dictatorship. The rest live in willful ignorance of what he's done, and will quickly lose it emotionally if you bring it up.

 

Whether Trump wins or not, I think will be up to what portion of the American people is completely lost to the MAGA echo chamber. If not, then there should be a near zero percent chance that someone would vote for him, after all he's done. I'm optimistic that Trump is going to say enough stupid shit to completely swing this election in Kamala's favor.

[Joshe]

13 hours ago, El Zapato said:

I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

In poker, players who don't know what they're doing are called "fish". It's hard to play against them because you don't know just how stupid they are being at any given moment. That said, there are optimal strategies to use for such players. 

I've been into some books on game theory and predictions, big data, etc. There's a lot of interesting insights there. "Wisdom of the crowds" is a topic worth diving into. If you like deep ass insights into human behavior, I highly recommend "Everybody Lies". 

The book is filled with things like this: Google search volume for the word "nigge*", increases by about 30% on MLK Day? 

• Parents are twice as likely to google "Is my son gifted?" than "Is my daughter gifted?" despite girls being more likely to be in gifted programs.
• During the 2008 U.S. presidential election, areas with high racist search rates were strongly correlated with lower votes for Barack Obama.
• In India, parents are more likely to google "How to have a boy" than "How to have a girl," indicating persistent son preference.
• Searches for anxiety-related terms peak at 3:00 AM, suggesting many people struggle with anxiety late at night.
• There's a significant spike in searches related to self-induced abortion in areas where abortion clinics have closed.
• The rate of porn searches is relatively constant across liberal and conservative areas, despite different public attitudes.
• Searches for depression and anxiety symptoms surge during major economic downturns.
• Many people admit to Google that they don't love their spouse or find their children unattractive - things they'd rarely say out loud.
• Search data reveals that many husbands are more likely to search about their wife's weight than her other attributes.
• The popularity of certain sexual fetishes varies significantly by region, often in unexpected ways.

  • The American South shows a higher interest in searches related to incest pornography compared to other regions.

  • Searches for "cuckold" pornography are most prevalent in Kerala, India, and Nigeria.

  • Interest in bestiality-related searches is highest in rural, often conservative areas of the United States.

  • Searches for "furry" pornography (related to anthropomorphic animal characters) are concentrated in the western United States.

  • BDSM-related searches are more common in liberal-leaning states and cities.

  • Foot fetish searches are particularly popular in the northeastern United States and in several South American countries.

  • Searches for "granny" pornography are disproportionately high in Sri Lanka.

  • Interest in voyeurism-related searches peaks in several Middle Eastern countries.

  • Searches for "lesbian" pornography are highest in conservative religious areas, both in the U.S. and internationally.

  • Asian countries show a higher interest in animated or hentai pornography compared to Western nations.

  • Searches for "pegging" (a specific sexual practice) are most common in liberal urban areas of the United States.

  • Interest in "BBW" (Big Beautiful Women) searches is particularly high in parts of Africa and the Caribbean.

• Search data suggests that the number of men attracted to men is likely higher than commonly reported in surveys.
• Search data indicates that people are more honest about their insecurities, biases, and desires when they think no one is watching.
• In India, the most common search starting with "My husband wants..." is "...me to breastfeed him."
• There's a significant increase in searches about domestic violence after major sporting events, particularly if the home team loses.
• Search data suggests that many people struggle with suicidal thoughts but don't seek help through traditional channels.
• The rate of searches for jokes about African Americans is highly correlated with regional measures of racial intolerance.
• During major holidays, there's a spike in searches related to stress and family conflict, revealing the often-hidden tensions of family gatherings.

These conservatives can't hide from me bro! 

Edited Friday at 10:02 PM by Joshe

[ici]

I made the mistake to watch her appearance on Oprah's show.

She looks and sounds so disingenuous.

Do people really buy that?

[Emerald]

3 hours ago, Joshe said:

The rate of porn searches is relatively constant across liberal and conservative areas, despite different public attitudes.

I once saw that the place in the US with the highest porn consumption rate is Utah... with double the rate of porn consumption compared to the rest of the country.

And Utah is full of hyper-traditional Mormons that believe as a part of their scripture that premarital sex is the second worst sin there is... only coming in second to murder.

So, my guess would be that traditionally conservative areas with strongly held and deeply socially enforced religious values that prohibit sex and lust would have the highest rates of porn consumption.

Edited Saturday at 01:55 AM by Emerald

[Leo Gura]

It's not about quantity but quality.

You don't wanna know what kinda porn conservatives consume.

Edited Saturday at 02:06 AM by Leo Gura

[Buck Edwards]

3 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

You don't wanna know what kinda porn conservatives consume.

Why? 

[Hardkill]

18 minutes ago, Emerald said:

I once saw that the place in the US with the highest porn consumption rate is Utah... with double the rate of porn consumption compared to the rest of the country.

And Utah is full of hyper-traditional Mormons that believe as a part of their scripture that premarital sex is the second worst sin there is... only coming in second to murder.

So, my guess would be that traditionally conservative areas with strongly held and deeply socially enforced religious values that prohibit sex and lust would have the highest rates of porn consumption.

Too much sexual repression often backfires.

I’ve heard some Mormons in Utah do orgies in secret.

[Emerald]

21 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It's not about quantity but quality.

You don't wanna know what kinda porn conservatives consume.

There's no in between...

It's either watching soft-core missionary with a guilty conscience through the slats in their fingers.

OR

Hardcore sex dungeon with donkey decapitation play.

[Leo Gura]

2 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Hardcore sex dungeon with donkey decapitation play.

[Emerald]

7 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Too much sexual repression often backfires.

I’ve heard some Mormons in Utah do orgies in secret.

I'm sure that's true.

I have a really good friend who grew up in a small Mormon town in Canada where everyone was Mormon. And his family has been Mormon since the 1800s. 

He never indicated anything like that specifically that he personally knew of.

But he knows someone who struggles with a pretty debilitating sex addiction and cheats on his wife with a bunch of prostitutes very frequently. 

And he goes through this cycle of feeling holier than thou and finally in control of his sexual urges and he judges people for their normal sexual urges... only to fall into a sex binge shame cycle. 

And the shame is that he doesn't recognize that the purity-focused holier than thou phase of the cycle just sets up the bowling pins to be knocked down during the sex binge phase of the cycle.

[ici]

💀💀💀

Let’s ban free speech.

 

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

I'm sure that's true.

I have a really good friend who grew up in a small Mormon town in Canada where everyone was Mormon. And his family has been Mormon since the 1800s. 

He never indicated anything like that specifically that he personally knew of.

But he knows someone who struggles with a pretty debilitating sex addiction and cheats on his wife with a bunch of prostitutes very frequently. 

And he goes through this cycle of feeling holier than thou and finally in control of his sexual urges and he judges people for their normal sexual urges... only to fall into a sex binge shame cycle. 

And the shame is that he doesn't recognize that the purity-focused holier than thou phase of the cycle just sets up the bowling pins to be knocked down during the sex binge phase of the cycle.

I've never totally understood why such people who cheat on their partners or engage in a sex binge then preach to others about sexuality and being chaste.