Kamala-Trump Debate

[LoseYourvelf]

"It's just like a big love fest out here!" 

Also did U see the gold sneakers? Do U think he's really that manipulative or just had a cool creative idea

[Fearey]

2 hours ago, LoseYourvelf said:

I love Trump 

What are you most fearful of, or what bothers you the most about America today?

It seems to me that quite often, sympathy and support for Trump stems from an irrational fear that you believe he'd somehow solve if he became president. Trump knows this, and it's why he keeps saying he'll do all these great things if elected, while never elaborating on how he'd do it.

[El Zapato]

@LoseYourvelf lol!

[Joshe]

8 days after debate:

Kamala: +6 (45 to 51)
Trump: -6 (53 to 47)

To my knowledge (which is fallible), betting markets never had Kamala ahead of of Trump until after the debate. 

Ha, Kamala just hit 52 after I posted. 

Edit: Some betting markets did indeed have Harris slightly ahead of Trump at one point before the debate. 

Edited September 20, 2024 by Joshe

[Emerald]

6 hours ago, Joshe said:

8 days after debate:

Kamala: +6 (45 to 51)
Trump: -6 (53 to 47)

Betting markets never had Kamala ahead of of Trump until after the debate. 

Ha, Kamala just hit 52 after I posted. 

Back in early August or thereabouts I saw that she was up like 1 point on him for a couple weeks. So, that's not true.

But this is the first time she's pulled way ahead of him.

[BlueOak]

Authoritarian leaders with larger egos listen to yes-men.
Yes-men don't give good advice to strengthen your weaknesses / address your flaws, or let you grow with the natural course of events. Now we have Trump running on conspiracy, which the country is more tired of.

I've said it before, but Kyle sums it up well here.
 

 

Its the biggest flaw of authoritarians deep in egos, they make it about themselves at the expense of running a country. Not every single leader obviously, I'm sure there are authoritarians out there who genuinely listen to people telling them when something isn't working, but we only ever see the leaders that have huge egos because those egos like to get heard or seen.
Equally for balance being a democratic leader doesn't negate this possibility either, it just makes less likely, because how you got to that point usually requires many people, not just a large wad of cash to buy your way in (usually)

Edited September 19, 2024 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

On 18/09/2024 at 7:33 AM, Joshe said:

He was a bit late but Kyle got there. He thought Trump was shooting from the hip with the Haitian cats but now thinks it was intentional. He believes it was a stupid move, and it might be, but I wouldn’t discount primal fear just yet. There might even be a new viral immigration story on the horizon. 

 

Of course there will be, its the only card they can play. That and a war with Iran. (They'd stick to energy prices if they were smart, not sure what your fuel costs are in America?)

They will have to do better than random nazi quoted cat eating though. That was just laziness at its best to pull that one and run with it.

Edited September 19, 2024 by BlueOak

[Joshe]

17 hours ago, Emerald said:

Back in early August or thereabouts I saw that she was up like 1 point on him for a couple weeks. So, that's not true.

In the betting markets? I didn't know that. 

[Joshe]

14 hours ago, BlueOak said:

They will have to do better than random nazi quoted cat eating though. That was just laziness at its best to pull that one and run with it.

😂

[Leo Gura]

[Emerald]

1 hour ago, Joshe said:

In the betting markets? I didn't know that. 

Yes, in the betting markets. They were always close and Trump pulled ahead by a few points after a couple weeks in August with Kamala being tied or one point favored.

[Joshe]

2 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Yes, in the betting markets. They were always close and Trump pulled ahead by a few points after a couple weeks in August with Kamala being tied or one point favored.

Ahh, shux. Thanks. I'll correct that. 

[Joshe]

This is interesting: https://virtualtout.com/

• Prediction of a Democratic landslide: The forecast shifted to a Democratic landslide after the Trump-Harris debate on September 10.
• Difference in methodology: The Virtual Tout® uses prediction markets, not polls, for forecasts. Polls reflect past sentiments, while prediction markets anticipate future events, akin to stock markets predicting economic trends.
• Impact of Trump’s legal issues: Trump’s legal affairs, like the delay in his sentencing in the New York “hush money” case, influenced a drop in forecasted Electoral College votes for Democrats.
• Effect of key events on election forecasts:
  • September 10 debate between Trump and Harris (67.1 million viewers) shifted predicted votes significantly in favor of the Democrats.
  • Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on the same day, further increasing Democratic votes.
• Media coverage and campaign messaging: Headlines on September 12 emphasized stark differences in messaging:
  • Trump: "U.S. Is Failing"
  • Harris: "There’s Hope"
• Billie Eilish endorsement
• Federal Reserve's interest rate cut: On September 18, the Fed's half-point rate cut was the first since the pandemic and is expected to boost economic growth in late 2024.
• Electoral College forecasts (September 1–18):
  • September 1: Harris/Walz (374) vs. Trump/Vance (164).
  • September 10: Harris/Walz (400) vs. Trump/Vance (138).
  • September 18: Harris/Walz (449) vs. Trump/Vance (89).
• Market trading volume spikes: Significant trading volumes were seen in prediction markets on July 21 (Biden withdrew from the race) and September 10 (Trump-Harris debate and Swift's endorsement).
• Dramatic shift in forecasts: Predictions moved from a possible Republican landslide in mid-July to a Democratic landslide in just a few months.
• Updates until election day: The Virtual Tout® will continue tracking and publishing daily forecasts based on prediction market prices until November 5, 2024.

Edited September 20, 2024 by Joshe

[El Zapato]

@Joshe I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

[UnbornTao]

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

 

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Nooo Eugenio! (the cat)

[LoseYourvelf]

1 minute ago, UnbornTao said:

Nooo Eugenio! (the cat)

Mfer ate-ing Eugenio what in the eff

[Fearey]

3 hours ago, El Zapato said:

@Joshe I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

The supposed "facts over feelings" gang, doing everything they can to change subject or attack the person whenever true factual statements are being brought up. Like for example, if you try to ask a Trump supporter what they think of January 6th. 99% of them will either disagree on the facts of what happened that day, or they will excuse Trump saying he didn't make them do what they did. If you keep going, they will usually get pretty mad at you, spin their own made-up version of what happened or change the subject.

I think a small portion of his supporters actually know what he did, and know the facts, and support him anyway, because they are far-right fascists that want a dictatorship. The rest live in willful ignorance of what he's done, and will quickly lose it emotionally if you bring it up.

 

Whether Trump wins or not, I think will be up to what portion of the American people is completely lost to the MAGA echo chamber. If not, then there should be a near zero percent chance that someone would vote for him, after all he's done. I'm optimistic that Trump is going to say enough stupid shit to completely swing this election in Kamala's favor.

[Joshe]

13 hours ago, El Zapato said:

I've been considering what the election results will be in the final tally.  Logic dictates that Harris will win handily, but the right doesn't function on logic; it functions on fantasy, so anything is possible.

In poker, players who don't know what they're doing are called "fish". It's hard to play against them because you don't know just how stupid they are being at any given moment. That said, there are optimal strategies to use for such players. 

I've been into some books on game theory and predictions, big data, etc. There's a lot of interesting insights there. "Wisdom of the crowds" is a topic worth diving into. If you like deep ass insights into human behavior, I highly recommend "Everybody Lies". 

The book is filled with things like this: Google search volume for the word "nigge*", increases by about 30% on MLK Day? 

• Parents are twice as likely to google "Is my son gifted?" than "Is my daughter gifted?" despite girls being more likely to be in gifted programs.
• During the 2008 U.S. presidential election, areas with high racist search rates were strongly correlated with lower votes for Barack Obama.
• In India, parents are more likely to google "How to have a boy" than "How to have a girl," indicating persistent son preference.
• Searches for anxiety-related terms peak at 3:00 AM, suggesting many people struggle with anxiety late at night.
• There's a significant spike in searches related to self-induced abortion in areas where abortion clinics have closed.
• The rate of porn searches is relatively constant across liberal and conservative areas, despite different public attitudes.
• Searches for depression and anxiety symptoms surge during major economic downturns.
• Many people admit to Google that they don't love their spouse or find their children unattractive - things they'd rarely say out loud.
• Search data reveals that many husbands are more likely to search about their wife's weight than her other attributes.
• The popularity of certain sexual fetishes varies significantly by region, often in unexpected ways.

  • The American South shows a higher interest in searches related to incest pornography compared to other regions.

  • Searches for "cuckold" pornography are most prevalent in Kerala, India, and Nigeria.

  • Interest in bestiality-related searches is highest in rural, often conservative areas of the United States.

  • Searches for "furry" pornography (related to anthropomorphic animal characters) are concentrated in the western United States.

  • BDSM-related searches are more common in liberal-leaning states and cities.

  • Foot fetish searches are particularly popular in the northeastern United States and in several South American countries.

  • Searches for "granny" pornography are disproportionately high in Sri Lanka.

  • Interest in voyeurism-related searches peaks in several Middle Eastern countries.

  • Searches for "lesbian" pornography are highest in conservative religious areas, both in the U.S. and internationally.

  • Asian countries show a higher interest in animated or hentai pornography compared to Western nations.

  • Searches for "pegging" (a specific sexual practice) are most common in liberal urban areas of the United States.

  • Interest in "BBW" (Big Beautiful Women) searches is particularly high in parts of Africa and the Caribbean.

• Search data suggests that the number of men attracted to men is likely higher than commonly reported in surveys.
• Search data indicates that people are more honest about their insecurities, biases, and desires when they think no one is watching.
• In India, the most common search starting with "My husband wants..." is "...me to breastfeed him."
• There's a significant increase in searches about domestic violence after major sporting events, particularly if the home team loses.
• Search data suggests that many people struggle with suicidal thoughts but don't seek help through traditional channels.
• The rate of searches for jokes about African Americans is highly correlated with regional measures of racial intolerance.
• During major holidays, there's a spike in searches related to stress and family conflict, revealing the often-hidden tensions of family gatherings.

These conservatives can't hide from me bro! 

Edited September 20, 2024 by Joshe

[ici]

I made the mistake to watch her appearance on Oprah's show.

She looks and sounds so disingenuous.

Do people really buy that?

[Emerald]

3 hours ago, Joshe said:

The rate of porn searches is relatively constant across liberal and conservative areas, despite different public attitudes.

I once saw that the place in the US with the highest porn consumption rate is Utah... with double the rate of porn consumption compared to the rest of the country.

And Utah is full of hyper-traditional Mormons that believe as a part of their scripture that premarital sex is the second worst sin there is... only coming in second to murder.

So, my guess would be that traditionally conservative areas with strongly held and deeply socially enforced religious values that prohibit sex and lust would have the highest rates of porn consumption.

Edited September 21, 2024 by Emerald