Kamala-Trump Debate

[aurum]

22 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Overall, I think Trump wins on the issue, yet the border bill blunts the impact. Instead of a +25 for Trump it’s only a +15.

That seems very generous in Kamala’s favor.

Here’s my argument:

How many people even know about that bill? And of the people who know about it, how many of them also believe that Trump killed it for political reasons? 

I expect her to lose quite badly on this issue.

“How can she protect the border if she’s not an angry white male? -> unconscious voter logic

 

Edited September 15, 2024 by aurum

[Leo Gura]

It's real!

[Emerald]

1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:

 

Side-note: That's an adorable cat.

[Forestluv]

30 minutes ago, aurum said:

That seems very generous in Kamala’s favor.

Here’s my argument:

How many people even know about that bill? And of the people who know about it, how many of them also believe that Trump veto’d it for political reasons? 

I expect her to lose quite badly on this issue.

“How can she protect the border if she’s not an angry white male? -> unconscious voter logic

According to polls, Trump is only up about +10 on immigration. If Trump has a big advantage, it’s not showing up in polls.

It seems the Trump campaign prefers to fight on  immigration over the economy. 

Edited September 15, 2024 by Forestluv

[aurum]

16 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

According to polls, Trump is only up about +10. If Trump has a big advantage, it’s not showing up in polls. 

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

+10 overall in the polling on this issue could certainly be right.

Edited September 15, 2024 by aurum

[Justin Evans]

 

2 hours ago, Joshe said:

When all the dust settles from the crazy lies like infant murder and pets getting eaten, the general public will be a little more in the know on abortion and immigrant problems, which is the goal. It’s not that the man who says absurd shit has said more absurd shit, which people are inoculated to, it’s that they will have better reasons to vote R. “Don’t want my town to become like Springfield”, is more motivating than “Trump lied again”. 

Nearly every video I’ve seen by reputable outlets explicitly acknowledge the Haitian population putting strain on the system. It was a city of 55k and now it’s got 20k+ Haitians. Before, when Trump said “they’re taking over”, everyone just thought it was political bullshit. But now, people will know what he’s talking about, and not just with some border or coastal region. This can happen to YOU if Kamala gets in. 

This is not some idiot flying off the handle. This shit was planned. Trump’s key issue is now receiving millions of dollars in free press. The excitement from the absurdity will die down and what will be left is not Trump’s lies, but fear of your town being taken over. Seems like a solid strategy to me. 

It's pretty sad that compulsive lying and not answering a single question in the debate (except for tariffs which I don't even think he knows what it means) is so commonplace now from Trump that people call it strategic. The bar is in hell for republican standards. 

Edited September 15, 2024 by Justin Evans

[Forestluv]

40 minutes ago, aurum said:

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

I just saw an interview with Langford today on Fox. He is a very conservative R that wrote the bill. He said, in no uncertain terms, that they had the votes to pass and Trump contacted Congress members and pressured them to kill the bill. That’s to a FoxNews audience. Fox isn’t burying the story, they are breaking the story. I’m shocked Langford did that. It’s damaging to Trump and he’s going to get huge backlash. As well, CNN did an investigation which confirms. 

Edited September 15, 2024 by Forestluv

[Whitney Edwards]

59 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Side-note: That's an adorable cat.

Cuteness overload yay. 

[aurum]

24 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

I just saw an interview with Langford today on Fox. He is a very conservative R that wrote the bill. He said, in no uncertain terms, that they had the votes to pass and Trump contacted Congress members and pressured them to kill the bill. That’s to a FoxNews audience. Fox isn’t burying the story, they are breaking the story. I’m shocked Langford did that. It’s damaging to Trump and he’s going to get huge backlash. As well, CNN did an investigation which confirms. 

That Lankford interview was months ago, and he got ripped by a lot of the right-wing for that. There is no big backlash still to come from the right, they have mostly all fallen in line around the decision.

A more recent FoxNews article:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-run-border-bill-republicans-say-was-never-designed-solve-problem.amp

So it doesn’t matter whether Trump did or did not kill the bill for political reasons. What matters is that people don’t believe he did.

I won’t say it has no impact though. I just think a 10 point swing is way too much.

[Emerald]

31 minutes ago, Buck Edwards said:

Cuteness overload yay. 

Definitely! 

[Forestluv]

12 minutes ago, aurum said:

That Lankford interview was months ago, and he got ripped by a lot of the right-wing for that. There is no big backlash still to come from the right, they have mostly all fallen in line around the decision.

Oops, I didn’t see the date. Yea, any impact is already baked in.

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

Those other 20%ish percent are just moderate Republicans, independents, moderates, and low information voters that have some degree of prejudice... usually unconscious prejudice.

So, they will overlook Donald Trump's xenophobic/racist campaigning because they prefer to vote Republican... or (in 2016) because they liked his populist rhetoric about getting rid of NAFTA and bringing back manufacturing jobs.

But the reality is that like 80% of people are pretty racist and xenophobic. But most of those don't really realize it because they don't like the idea of being racist and xenophobic. They don't identify with it, and they don't want to come across that way.

So, they aren't going to be attracted to right wing echo chambers that let their racist freak flags fly as that would reveal a part of themselves that they don't like.

But they will be open to a president who is racist. They will overlook it. And secretly (even to themselves) they will feel comforted by a racist leader because there is a repressed part of them that is racist. And seeing a leader that is openly racist makes them feel related to, and it alleviates the shame they feel... because those parts would be seen as evil in society.

And people who have these unconscious biases feel a lot of shame. So, anything that normalizes racism will feel like mass forgiveness and relief.

I have one person that I know who has always been a really accepting person and who taught me to be accepting of all people no matter what. And in her hometown, she was one of the only people who was willing to make friends with the only black family in town (in the 60s). And she got a lot of hate for it too. And she has been sympathetic to the Palestinian plight since at least the 90s... before most people were woke to the problem.

And she's always been pretty progressive-minded.

But the moment that Donald Trump came on the scene and was talking about "We're going to drain the swamp", she saw in him a kind of Ross Perot 2.0 who is an outsider who's "too rich to corrupt"... and who's going to get rid of Nafta and bring back the manufacturing jobs.... she was sold.

And now she has all sorts of racist/xenophobic beliefs because she sees Donald Trump as a leader and an inspiration and she has developed all sorts of double-think to frame Donald Trump's racism as not racist at all. So, she holds here racist beliefs more consciously now... only she has come to see those things as not racist at all. And she gets really upset if people think Donald Trump is racist, and she believes that people who accuse Donald Trump of racism are the REAL racists.

And the second he got elected in 2016, she immediately got on board for his Muslim ban and the idea of giving Muslims special IDs and rounding them up and detaining them "until we know what's going on". 

So, I saw a very accepting person who wasn't even conservative go from 0 to Fascist in one day... only revealing it to me upon the election of Donald Trump. 

And it made me realize how MOST people are susceptible to Fascism... regardless of political affiliation. People are already soaked in the kerosene of their own unconscious, conscious, and semi-conscious biases... and all they need is one demagogue in power to light the match with some Fascist rhetoric to open up the floodgates to their lesser devils.

And Fascism spreads quickly to anybody who isn't exercising a great deal of awareness of their own racist Shadows.

Those who are in Right-Wing echo chambers are only like 25% of the population... but the thought leaders in those spaces are always working towards organizing to wake up the rest of the 80% of people who are susceptible to Fascist thinking to their deeper-seated repressed fear/hate impulses through propagating lies and propaganda.

I see....

Well, Trump is still fundamentally weak and unpopular. He has never come close to winning the popular vote and he's certainly not going to win it for the 2024 presidential election.

I believe he will lose to Harris in this election. There seems to be too much going against Trump and his party now.

Edited September 15, 2024 by Hardkill

[Emerald]

2 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

I see....

Well, Trump is still fundamentally weak and unpopular. He has never come close to winning the popular vote and he's certainly not going to win it for the 2024 presidential election.

I believe he will lose to Harris in this election. There seems to be too much going against Trump and his party now.

I wouldn't be too certain.

I think it will be close but that Harris will win the electoral college. 

But I also think that Trump could very well steal the election this time around, because he has lots of election deniers in place in swing state polling locations to withhold certifying the vote. And he also has JD Vance instead of Mike Pence who would certify the fraudulent electors... as this is why Trump picked him as a running mate in the first place.

So, I fear that Kamala won't be able to win in a way that's too big to steal... and that it may be stolen.

Trump is unpopular, that's true. And far-right thinking is a minority viewpoint.

But there are so many advantages towards the right wing that's baked into the cake, that Democrats always have to win big in the popular vote to actually win.

[aurum]

Debate seems to have been almost irrelevant so far:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/14/politics/video/enten-harris-trump-poll-debate-digvid

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo.amp

Edited September 15, 2024 by aurum

[Girzo]

6 hours ago, ryandesreu said:

Humans have a natural tendency to categorize things, including people, based on observable differences such as race, language, or culture, but humans do not naturally hate or racially discriminate. Racism is a social construct. It is learned behavior.

What am I missing?

You are absolutely correct. The tendency is real, but racism is a construct. It needed to be invented and is reproduced through social mechanisms. Yet, to get rid of racism is not to get rid of underlying condition that led to creation of racism in the first place.

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, aurum said:

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

+10 overall in the polling on this issue could certainly be right.

I think that a lot of moderates and independents have been realizing how much Trump and his party have never really cared about border security. More and more of them are seeing that he only cares about himself and doesn't even have a real plan for it.

One big reason of why Republicans have lost so many of these special elections since 2022 is because they've been realizing how incompetent Trump and his party have been. If you ask people who don't identify as either Democrat or Republican as to exactly what Trump and the Republicans have done over the past 8 years, most of them will say that all that Trump and his party have done is cut taxes and sent only one set of stimulus checks for them during the pandemic. They can't even recall what he did to make the border more secure.

Even a number of crazy right-wingers like Nick Fuentes feel like he turned out to be a fraud who let our country down:

 

Edited September 15, 2024 by Hardkill

[aurum]

14 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

I think that a lot of moderates and independents have been realizing how much Trump and his party have never really cared about border security. More and more of them are seeing that he only cares about himself and doesn't even have a real plan for it.

One big reason of why Republicans have lost so many of these special elections since 2022 is because they've been realizing how incompetent Trump and his party have been. If you ask people who don't identify as either Democrat or Republican as to exactly what Trump and the Republicans have done over the past 8 years, most of them will say that all that Trump and his party have done is cut taxes and sent only one set of stimulus checks for them during the pandemic. They can't even recall what he did to make the border more secure.

Maybe. We can nitpick about what we think tips the scales, but the reality is it’s going to be an extremely close race.

Kamala is no longer surging in the polls like she was. We’re back to almost a statistical tie.

Edited September 15, 2024 by aurum

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

I wouldn't be too certain.

I think it will be close but that Harris will win the electoral college. 

But I also think that Trump could very well steal the election this time around, because he has lots of election deniers in place in swing state polling locations to withhold certifying the vote. And he also has JD Vance instead of Mike Pence who would certify the fraudulent electors... as this is why Trump picked him as a running mate in the first place.

So, I fear that Kamala won't be able to win in a way that's too big to steal... and that it may be stolen.

Trump is unpopular, that's true. And far-right thinking is a minority viewpoint.

But there are so many advantages towards the right wing that's baked into the cake, that Democrats always have to win big in the popular vote to actually win.

Biden won the presidency before in 2020 and back then he wasn't even as strong of a candidate as Harris is now. She also definitely a stronger and more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Trump isn't president and JD Vance is not the vice president. Therefore, they don't currently have the levers of power that could potentially be used to overturn an election. 

Also, the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 further ensured that neither the Vice President nor a simple majority of members of both chambers of Congress can just overturn the election results.

In any case, that's why we need as many poll watchers and lawyers as possible to fight back against voter suppression and any other kind of cheating. It's a good thing that almost all of the swing states have been run by Democratic governors. Only two swing states are run by Republican governors who don't like Trump or MAGA at all. Pretty much every attorney general and secretary of state in every swing state is either a Democratic or anti-MAGA Republican as well.

Moreover, that's why we need to do whatever we can to help get out the vote as much as possible.

Edited September 15, 2024 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

16 minutes ago, aurum said:

Maybe. We can nitpick about what we think tips the scales, but the reality is it’s going to be an extremely close race.

Kamala is no longer surging in the polls like she was. We’re back to almost a statistical tie.

Do you realize how much error polls have? It's not just the margin of error that's shown in the polls. The sample sizes in the polls often don't fully represent the majority of all voters in the country.

Moreover, many people don't answer the polls, especially young voters this day and age. Many people tend to lie or only tell the pollsters what they want to hear. Many people when they answer don't focus well on the questions. They can also easily change their minds based on how the question was ask of them or the mood.

Plus, let's not forget that the polls also have been greatly underestimating the strength of Democrats since 2022 and have been overestimating Trump's strength since the beginning of the 2024 GOP primaries. 

Another thing is that polls more than a few weeks out from an election still do not have predictive value. 

Forget the polls, forget the pundits, keep an eye on the big picture including the governance of the party in power and the on the ground enthusiasm for each of the candidates.

Nobody know for certain if this race will be extremely close. It may or not be close. 

Edited September 15, 2024 by Hardkill

[aurum]

2 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Do you realize how much error polls have? It's not just the margin of error that's shown in the polls. The sample sizes in the polls often don't fully represent the majority of all voters in the country. Moreover, many people don't answer the polls, especially young voters this day and age. Many people tend to lie or only tell the pollsters what they want to hear. Many people when they answers don't focus well on the question. They can also easily change their minds based on how the question was ask of them. 

Plus, let's not forget that the polls also have been greatly underestimating the strength of Democrats since 2022 and have been overestimating Trump's strength since the beginning of the 2024 GOP primaries. 

The polls are accurate in this case.

There’s no good reason I see to assume either candidate is going to blow the other one out. It will be a close race.