Kamala-Trump Debate

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

Those other 20%ish percent are just moderate Republicans, independents, moderates, and low information voters that have some degree of prejudice... usually unconscious prejudice.

So, they will overlook Donald Trump's xenophobic/racist campaigning because they prefer to vote Republican... or (in 2016) because they liked his populist rhetoric about getting rid of NAFTA and bringing back manufacturing jobs.

But the reality is that like 80% of people are pretty racist and xenophobic. But most of those don't really realize it because they don't like the idea of being racist and xenophobic. They don't identify with it, and they don't want to come across that way.

So, they aren't going to be attracted to right wing echo chambers that let their racist freak flags fly as that would reveal a part of themselves that they don't like.

But they will be open to a president who is racist. They will overlook it. And secretly (even to themselves) they will feel comforted by a racist leader because there is a repressed part of them that is racist. And seeing a leader that is openly racist makes them feel related to, and it alleviates the shame they feel... because those parts would be seen as evil in society.

And people who have these unconscious biases feel a lot of shame. So, anything that normalizes racism will feel like mass forgiveness and relief.

I have one person that I know who has always been a really accepting person and who taught me to be accepting of all people no matter what. And in her hometown, she was one of the only people who was willing to make friends with the only black family in town (in the 60s). And she got a lot of hate for it too. And she has been sympathetic to the Palestinian plight since at least the 90s... before most people were woke to the problem.

And she's always been pretty progressive-minded.

But the moment that Donald Trump came on the scene and was talking about "We're going to drain the swamp", she saw in him a kind of Ross Perot 2.0 who is an outsider who's "too rich to corrupt"... and who's going to get rid of Nafta and bring back the manufacturing jobs.... she was sold.

And now she has all sorts of racist/xenophobic beliefs because she sees Donald Trump as a leader and an inspiration and she has developed all sorts of double-think to frame Donald Trump's racism as not racist at all. So, she holds here racist beliefs more consciously now... only she has come to see those things as not racist at all. And she gets really upset if people think Donald Trump is racist, and she believes that people who accuse Donald Trump of racism are the REAL racists.

And the second he got elected in 2016, she immediately got on board for his Muslim ban and the idea of giving Muslims special IDs and rounding them up and detaining them "until we know what's going on". 

So, I saw a very accepting person who wasn't even conservative go from 0 to Fascist in one day... only revealing it to me upon the election of Donald Trump. 

And it made me realize how MOST people are susceptible to Fascism... regardless of political affiliation. People are already soaked in the kerosene of their own unconscious, conscious, and semi-conscious biases... and all they need is one demagogue in power to light the match with some Fascist rhetoric to open up the floodgates to their lesser devils.

And Fascism spreads quickly to anybody who isn't exercising a great deal of awareness of their own racist Shadows.

Those who are in Right-Wing echo chambers are only like 25% of the population... but the thought leaders in those spaces are always working towards organizing to wake up the rest of the 80% of people who are susceptible to Fascist thinking to their deeper-seated repressed fear/hate impulses through propagating lies and propaganda.

I see....

Well, Trump is still fundamentally weak and unpopular. He has never come close to winning the popular vote and he's certainly not going to win it for the 2024 presidential election.

I believe he will lose to Harris in this election. There seems to be too much going against Trump and his party now.

Edited September 15 by Hardkill

[Emerald]

2 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

I see....

Well, Trump is still fundamentally weak and unpopular. He has never come close to winning the popular vote and he's certainly not going to win it for the 2024 presidential election.

I believe he will lose to Harris in this election. There seems to be too much going against Trump and his party now.

I wouldn't be too certain.

I think it will be close but that Harris will win the electoral college. 

But I also think that Trump could very well steal the election this time around, because he has lots of election deniers in place in swing state polling locations to withhold certifying the vote. And he also has JD Vance instead of Mike Pence who would certify the fraudulent electors... as this is why Trump picked him as a running mate in the first place.

So, I fear that Kamala won't be able to win in a way that's too big to steal... and that it may be stolen.

Trump is unpopular, that's true. And far-right thinking is a minority viewpoint.

But there are so many advantages towards the right wing that's baked into the cake, that Democrats always have to win big in the popular vote to actually win.

[aurum]

Debate seems to have been almost irrelevant so far:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/14/politics/video/enten-harris-trump-poll-debate-digvid

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo.amp

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Girzo]

6 hours ago, ryandesreu said:

Humans have a natural tendency to categorize things, including people, based on observable differences such as race, language, or culture, but humans do not naturally hate or racially discriminate. Racism is a social construct. It is learned behavior.

What am I missing?

You are absolutely correct. The tendency is real, but racism is a construct. It needed to be invented and is reproduced through social mechanisms. Yet, to get rid of racism is not to get rid of underlying condition that led to creation of racism in the first place.

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, aurum said:

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

+10 overall in the polling on this issue could certainly be right.

I think that a lot of moderates and independents have been realizing how much Trump and his party have never really cared about border security. More and more of them are seeing that he only cares about himself and doesn't even have a real plan for it.

One big reason of why Republicans have lost so many of these special elections since 2022 is because they've been realizing how incompetent Trump and his party have been. If you ask people who don't identify as either Democrat or Republican as to exactly what Trump and the Republicans have done over the past 8 years, most of them will say that all that Trump and his party have done is cut taxes and sent only one set of stimulus checks for them during the pandemic. They can't even recall what he did to make the border more secure.

Even a number of crazy right-wingers like Nick Fuentes feel like he turned out to be a fraud who let our country down:

 

Edited September 15 by Hardkill

[aurum]

14 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

I think that a lot of moderates and independents have been realizing how much Trump and his party have never really cared about border security. More and more of them are seeing that he only cares about himself and doesn't even have a real plan for it.

One big reason of why Republicans have lost so many of these special elections since 2022 is because they've been realizing how incompetent Trump and his party have been. If you ask people who don't identify as either Democrat or Republican as to exactly what Trump and the Republicans have done over the past 8 years, most of them will say that all that Trump and his party have done is cut taxes and sent only one set of stimulus checks for them during the pandemic. They can't even recall what he did to make the border more secure.

Maybe. We can nitpick about what we think tips the scales, but the reality is it’s going to be an extremely close race.

Kamala is no longer surging in the polls like she was. We’re back to almost a statistical tie.

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Emerald said:

I wouldn't be too certain.

I think it will be close but that Harris will win the electoral college. 

But I also think that Trump could very well steal the election this time around, because he has lots of election deniers in place in swing state polling locations to withhold certifying the vote. And he also has JD Vance instead of Mike Pence who would certify the fraudulent electors... as this is why Trump picked him as a running mate in the first place.

So, I fear that Kamala won't be able to win in a way that's too big to steal... and that it may be stolen.

Trump is unpopular, that's true. And far-right thinking is a minority viewpoint.

But there are so many advantages towards the right wing that's baked into the cake, that Democrats always have to win big in the popular vote to actually win.

Biden won the presidency before in 2020 and back then he wasn't even as strong of a candidate as Harris is now. She also definitely a stronger and more popular candidate than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Trump isn't president and JD Vance is not the vice president. Therefore, they don't currently have the levers of power that could potentially be used to overturn an election. 

Also, the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 further ensured that neither the Vice President nor a simple majority of members of both chambers of Congress can just overturn the election results.

In any case, that's why we need as many poll watchers and lawyers as possible to fight back against voter suppression and any other kind of cheating. It's a good thing that almost all of the swing states have been run by Democratic governors. Only two swing states are run by Republican governors who don't like Trump or MAGA at all. Pretty much every attorney general and secretary of state in every swing state is either a Democratic or anti-MAGA Republican as well.

Moreover, that's why we need to do whatever we can to help get out the vote as much as possible.

Edited September 15 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

16 minutes ago, aurum said:

Maybe. We can nitpick about what we think tips the scales, but the reality is it’s going to be an extremely close race.

Kamala is no longer surging in the polls like she was. We’re back to almost a statistical tie.

Do you realize how much error polls have? It's not just the margin of error that's shown in the polls. The sample sizes in the polls often don't fully represent the majority of all voters in the country.

Moreover, many people don't answer the polls, especially young voters this day and age. Many people tend to lie or only tell the pollsters what they want to hear. Many people when they answer don't focus well on the questions. They can also easily change their minds based on how the question was ask of them or the mood.

Plus, let's not forget that the polls also have been greatly underestimating the strength of Democrats since 2022 and have been overestimating Trump's strength since the beginning of the 2024 GOP primaries. 

Another thing is that polls more than a few weeks out from an election still do not have predictive value. 

Forget the polls, forget the pundits, keep an eye on the big picture including the governance of the party in power and the on the ground enthusiasm for each of the candidates.

Nobody know for certain if this race will be extremely close. It may or not be close. 

Edited September 15 by Hardkill

[aurum]

2 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Do you realize how much error polls have? It's not just the margin of error that's shown in the polls. The sample sizes in the polls often don't fully represent the majority of all voters in the country. Moreover, many people don't answer the polls, especially young voters this day and age. Many people tend to lie or only tell the pollsters what they want to hear. Many people when they answers don't focus well on the question. They can also easily change their minds based on how the question was ask of them. 

Plus, let's not forget that the polls also have been greatly underestimating the strength of Democrats since 2022 and have been overestimating Trump's strength since the beginning of the 2024 GOP primaries. 

The polls are accurate in this case.

There’s no good reason I see to assume either candidate is going to blow the other one out. It will be a close race.

[Hardkill]

11 minutes ago, aurum said:

The polls are accurate in this case.

There’s no good reason I see to assume either candidate is going to blow the other one out. It will be a close race.

From a campaign standpoint I think it's always best to say to voters that the race will be extremely close to help fully motivate voters to get out and vote.

However, how do you know the polls are accurate now?

[UnbornTao]

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It's real!

No mustard? 

Savage!

[El Zapato]

9 hours ago, ryandesreu said:

Humans have a natural tendency to categorize things, including people, based on observable differences such as race, language, or culture, but humans do not naturally hate or racially discriminate. Racism is a social construct. It is learned behavior.

What am I missing?

This natural tendency always manifests (unfortunately) but it didn't start in the form that it now exists until about 2-3 millennia ago, give or take.  It occurred within a framework of migration, of course.

Edited September 15 by El Zapato

[El Zapato]

20 minutes ago, UnbornTao said:

No mustard? 

Savage!

ahhhaha, lol.  Such a funny-looking sandwich.

[El Zapato]

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

From a campaign standpoint I think it's always best to say to voters that the race will be extremely close to help fully motivate voters to get out and vote.

However, how do you know the polls are accurate now?

I hope you are right but it is somewhat distressing to me.  And then there is the Electoral College to deal with...

[Joshe]

If you run an advertisement to prove X, and you prove X where some large portion of 68 million people were looking to see if X were true, then your advertisement was probably successful.

In marketing, this is considered a win. It’s not as simple as this but it seems absurd to believe a poll that says a successful debate performance in front of an audience of 68 million was not successful. 

To demonstrate: It's beyond absurd to believe that because a poll says Taylor Swift's endorsement shows little impact, the impact is little. 

You have to ask yourself "what is going on here?" Do you just think influencer marketing doesn't influence? 

Their polls cannot measure this. I recommend the book “Everybody Lies”. It highlights important concepts relevant to this topic. It shows how the 2016 polls and the best pollster in the country were so wrong. Similar dynamics could be going on with this poll. I wouldn’t put stock in them. 

Also, more and more egos are finding comfort in priding themselves on not being tribal. They fancy themselves independent thinkers. This self-deception seems to be the main reason many are saying things like “I’m open to Kamala but she has to earn my vote”. This ego mechanism could largely skew the polls. It's likely this ego mechanism resists deciding right up till the election and the one's employing it will largely be driven to conform to their geographic status quo. They aren't carefully employing rationality and reason. They will likely be motivated by a mix of tribe, personal impact(emotion), and reason, in that order. 

Another point: as Hardkill mentioned, there is major incentive to not broadcast much success.

Edited September 15 by Joshe

[ryandesreu]

9 hours ago, Emerald said:

And he also has JD Vance instead of Mike Pence who would certify the fraudulent electors... as this is why Trump picked him as a running mate in the first place.

Wouldn't it be Harris certifying the results of the 2024 election this time as she is the sitting vp?

(Update to my post) I see that the vice can no longer overturn an election because of the Count Reform Act of 2022. 

Edited September 15 by ryandesreu

[aurum]

13 hours ago, Hardkill said:

However, how do you know the polls are accurate now?

That’s just my analysis of the overall situation.

Trump will win a couple swing states and Kamala will win a couple. So the election is basically coming down to a coin-toss for Pennsylvania.

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, aurum said:

That’s just my analysis of the overall situation.

Trump will win a couple swing states and Kamala will win a couple. So The election is basically coming down to a coin-toss for Pennsylvania.

Alright.....well let's cross our fingers and hope it's not too close.

Btw, you don't in a swing state right? I ask because I wonder if you have an idea on how we could help get out the vote in swing states other than canvassing. I live in California, but unfortunately I won't be able to go canvassing in Arizona or Nevada.

Edited September 15 by Hardkill

[ici]

 

[aurum]

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Alright.....well let's cross our fingers and hope it's not too close.

Btw, you don't in a swing state right? I ask because I wonder if you have an idea on how we could help get out the vote in swing states other than canvassing. I live in California, but unfortunately I won't be able to go canvassing in Arizona or Nevada.

No I don’t live in a swing state.

I have done some canvassing but that kind of thing is not really my expertise. So no, I can’t say I have any brilliant ideas on getting out more voters that aren’t already being implemented.

I leave that part up to activists who understand that world better.