Kamala-Trump Debate

[Joshe]

When all the dust settles from the crazy lies like infant murder and pets getting eaten, the general public will be a little more in the know on abortion and immigrant problems, which is the goal. It’s not that the man who says absurd shit has said more absurd shit, which people are inoculated to, it’s that they will have better reasons to vote R. “Don’t want my town to become like Springfield”, is more motivating than “Trump lied again”. 

Nearly every video I’ve seen by reputable outlets explicitly acknowledge the Haitian population putting strain on the system. It was a city of 55k and now it’s got 20k+ Haitians. Before, when Trump said “they’re taking over”, everyone just thought it was political bullshit. But now, people will know what he’s talking about, and not just with some border or coastal region. This can happen to YOU if Kamala gets in. 

This is not some idiot flying off the handle. This shit was planned. Trump’s key issue is now receiving millions of dollars in free press. The excitement from the absurdity will die down and what will be left is not Trump’s lies, but fear of your town being taken over. Seems like a solid strategy to me. 

Edited September 15 by Joshe

[Forestluv]

19 minutes ago, Joshe said:

Trump is getting millions of dollars in free press. The excitement from the absurdity will die down and what will be left is not Trumps lies, but fear of your town being taken over. Seems like a solid strategy to me. 

It worked in 2106 and is a good strategy in theory, yet a few pitfalls: 1) Trump fatigue, 2) Trump’s inability to articulate and 3) Harris has an effective counter: Trump recently killed the bipartisan Border Security Bill. As well, over involvement by Trump could put him in a negative light, similar to his involvement with BLM protests. 

Edited September 15 by Forestluv

[aurum]

5 minutes ago, Joshe said:

This is not some idiot flying off the handle. This shit was planned out. Trump is getting millions of dollars in free press. The excitement from the absurdity will die down and what will be left is not Trumps lies, but fear of your town being taken over. Seems like a solid strategy to me. 

Saying it was “planned out” I think gives them too much credit. Trump is not that smart.

Rather, the story went viral because it hit a lot of people’s buttons. And Trump and team just ran with it because they saw the popularity and that it played into their right-wing platform.

[aurum]

15 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

3) Harris has an effective counter: Trump recently killed the bipartisan Border Security Bill.

That one only works if you’re an intelligent person who votes on policy.

For most people, Trump seems like the guy who will save people from immigration. So they will still vote for him.

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Emerald]

21 hours ago, Hardkill said:

I agree with all that.

So, if only about a quarter of Americans are in those right-wing echo chambers, then what about the other twenty something percent of Americans who aren't in those right-wing echo chambers but still voted for Trump for in 2016 and 2020?

Those other 20%ish percent are just moderate Republicans, independents, moderates, and low information voters that have some degree of prejudice... usually unconscious prejudice.

So, they will overlook Donald Trump's xenophobic/racist campaigning because they prefer to vote Republican... or (in 2016) because they liked his populist rhetoric about getting rid of NAFTA and bringing back manufacturing jobs.

But the reality is that like 80% of people are pretty racist and xenophobic. But most of those don't really realize it because they don't like the idea of being racist and xenophobic. They don't identify with it, and they don't want to come across that way.

So, they aren't going to be attracted to right wing echo chambers that let their racist freak flags fly as that would reveal a part of themselves that they don't like.

But they will be open to a president who is racist. They will overlook it. And secretly (even to themselves) they will feel comforted by a racist leader because there is a repressed part of them that is racist. And seeing a leader that is openly racist makes them feel related to, and it alleviates the shame they feel... because those parts would be seen as evil in society.

And people who have these unconscious biases feel a lot of shame. So, anything that normalizes racism will feel like mass forgiveness and relief.

I have one person that I know who has always been a really accepting person and who taught me to be accepting of all people no matter what. And in her hometown, she was one of the only people who was willing to make friends with the only black family in town (in the 60s). And she got a lot of hate for it too. And she has been sympathetic to the Palestinian plight since at least the 90s... before most people were woke to the problem.

And she's always been pretty progressive-minded.

But the moment that Donald Trump came on the scene and was talking about "We're going to drain the swamp", she saw in him a kind of Ross Perot 2.0 who is an outsider who's "too rich to corrupt"... and who's going to get rid of Nafta and bring back the manufacturing jobs.... she was sold.

And now she has all sorts of racist/xenophobic beliefs because she sees Donald Trump as a leader and an inspiration and she has developed all sorts of double-think to frame Donald Trump's racism as not racist at all. So, she holds here racist beliefs more consciously now... only she has come to see those things as not racist at all. And she gets really upset if people think Donald Trump is racist, and she believes that people who accuse Donald Trump of racism are the REAL racists.

And the second he got elected in 2016, she immediately got on board for his Muslim ban and the idea of giving Muslims special IDs and rounding them up and detaining them "until we know what's going on". 

So, I saw a very accepting person who wasn't even conservative go from 0 to Fascist in one day... only revealing it to me upon the election of Donald Trump. 

And it made me realize how MOST people are susceptible to Fascism... regardless of political affiliation. People are already soaked in the kerosene of their own unconscious, conscious, and semi-conscious biases... and all they need is one demagogue in power to light the match with some Fascist rhetoric to open up the floodgates to their lesser devils.

And Fascism spreads quickly to anybody who isn't exercising a great deal of awareness of their own racist Shadows.

Those who are in Right-Wing echo chambers are only like 25% of the population... but the thought leaders in those spaces are always working towards organizing to wake up the rest of the 80% of people who are susceptible to Fascist thinking to their deeper-seated repressed fear/hate impulses through propagating lies and propaganda.

Edited September 15 by Emerald

[Joshe]

14 minutes ago, aurum said:

Saying it was “planned out” I think gives them too much credit. Trump is not that smart.

I didn’t say Trump planned it out. That would be absurd. Lol. It would also be absurd to think that Trump’s campaign does not have access to consultants who could provide them with such a strategy.

Of course, it’s also possible he just got really lucky to have such a golden opportunity arrive just in time for the big event.

Edited September 15 by Joshe

[Emerald]

4 hours ago, PenguinPablo said:

and the fact that Trump i spewing this nonsense in a fucking presidential debate is insane...

bringing up the immigration thing over and over again.

like what is your voter demographic...

xenophobes and racists?

It is insane. But most people are xenophobic and racist to some degree or another.

Like 80% of people are unknowingly Fascists in waiting for a demagogue to light the spark and weaponize them to cleanse all the "others" from the land. And that's an important thing to keep in mind, lest we have our own unconscious biases exploited and weaponized.

It might sound extreme, but no one is exempt from becoming a Fascist if the political climate is conducive to Fascism. And the more that EVERYONE is aware of that, the less likely we are to fall into the trap of Fascism.

Most people, just don't like to think of themselves this way because most people are ashamed of it or afraid of social rejection to admit it to themselves. 

And Trump knows this and often campaigns in a way that pushes the 'Fascist activation button" in society because it drums up his support base who don't understand why they like it when he's racist.

That said, I think that his "Haitians are eating dogs" comment won't hit with most people because it's too blatant.

But if he were a bit more subtle and gave himself some plausible deniability, I think a lot of people would resonate with it and that it would scratch peoples Fascist itch. 

Edited September 15 by Emerald

[Forestluv]

20 minutes ago, aurum said:

That one only works if you’re an intelligent person who votes on policy.

For most people, Trump seems like the guy who will save people from immigration. So they will still vote for him.

Overall, I think Trump wins on the issue, yet the border bill blunts the impact. Instead of a +25 for Trump it’s only a +15.

[Forestluv]

22 hours ago, Hardkill said:

 

So, if only about a quarter of Americans are in those right-wing echo chambers, then what about the other twenty something percent of Americans who aren't in those right-wing echo chambers but still voted for Trump for in 2016 and 2020?

Sara Longwell is really good in this area.  Her focus groups focus on this question. She has long relationships with her members and has much deeper conversations than Frank Lutz. She posts audio of her focus group members. They explain their rationale in a calm, sober way. I find them fascinating

[aurum]

22 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Overall, I think Trump wins on the issue, yet the border bill blunts the impact. Instead of a +25 for Trump it’s only a +15.

That seems very generous in Kamala’s favor.

Here’s my argument:

How many people even know about that bill? And of the people who know about it, how many of them also believe that Trump killed it for political reasons? 

I expect her to lose quite badly on this issue.

“How can she protect the border if she’s not an angry white male? -> unconscious voter logic

 

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Leo Gura]

It's real!

[Emerald]

1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:

 

Side-note: That's an adorable cat.

[Forestluv]

30 minutes ago, aurum said:

That seems very generous in Kamala’s favor.

Here’s my argument:

How many people even know about that bill? And of the people who know about it, how many of them also believe that Trump veto’d it for political reasons? 

I expect her to lose quite badly on this issue.

“How can she protect the border if she’s not an angry white male? -> unconscious voter logic

According to polls, Trump is only up about +10 on immigration. If Trump has a big advantage, it’s not showing up in polls.

It seems the Trump campaign prefers to fight on  immigration over the economy. 

Edited September 15 by Forestluv

[aurum]

16 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

According to polls, Trump is only up about +10. If Trump has a big advantage, it’s not showing up in polls. 

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

+10 overall in the polling on this issue could certainly be right.

Edited September 15 by aurum

[Justin Evans]

 

2 hours ago, Joshe said:

When all the dust settles from the crazy lies like infant murder and pets getting eaten, the general public will be a little more in the know on abortion and immigrant problems, which is the goal. It’s not that the man who says absurd shit has said more absurd shit, which people are inoculated to, it’s that they will have better reasons to vote R. “Don’t want my town to become like Springfield”, is more motivating than “Trump lied again”. 

Nearly every video I’ve seen by reputable outlets explicitly acknowledge the Haitian population putting strain on the system. It was a city of 55k and now it’s got 20k+ Haitians. Before, when Trump said “they’re taking over”, everyone just thought it was political bullshit. But now, people will know what he’s talking about, and not just with some border or coastal region. This can happen to YOU if Kamala gets in. 

This is not some idiot flying off the handle. This shit was planned. Trump’s key issue is now receiving millions of dollars in free press. The excitement from the absurdity will die down and what will be left is not Trump’s lies, but fear of your town being taken over. Seems like a solid strategy to me. 

It's pretty sad that compulsive lying and not answering a single question in the debate (except for tariffs which I don't even think he knows what it means) is so commonplace now from Trump that people call it strategic. The bar is in hell for republican standards. 

Edited September 15 by Justin Evans

[Forestluv]

40 minutes ago, aurum said:

I was commenting specifically about the effects of the bill itself. Going from +25 to +15 I think is way too much.

I just saw an interview with Langford today on Fox. He is a very conservative R that wrote the bill. He said, in no uncertain terms, that they had the votes to pass and Trump contacted Congress members and pressured them to kill the bill. That’s to a FoxNews audience. Fox isn’t burying the story, they are breaking the story. I’m shocked Langford did that. It’s damaging to Trump and he’s going to get huge backlash. As well, CNN did an investigation which confirms. 

Edited September 15 by Forestluv

[Buck Edwards]

59 minutes ago, Emerald said:

Side-note: That's an adorable cat.

Cuteness overload yay. 

[aurum]

24 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

I just saw an interview with Langford today on Fox. He is a very conservative R that wrote the bill. He said, in no uncertain terms, that they had the votes to pass and Trump contacted Congress members and pressured them to kill the bill. That’s to a FoxNews audience. Fox isn’t burying the story, they are breaking the story. I’m shocked Langford did that. It’s damaging to Trump and he’s going to get huge backlash. As well, CNN did an investigation which confirms. 

That Lankford interview was months ago, and he got ripped by a lot of the right-wing for that. There is no big backlash still to come from the right, they have mostly all fallen in line around the decision.

A more recent FoxNews article:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-run-border-bill-republicans-say-was-never-designed-solve-problem.amp

So it doesn’t matter whether Trump did or did not kill the bill for political reasons. What matters is that people don’t believe he did.

I won’t say it has no impact though. I just think a 10 point swing is way too much.

[Emerald]

31 minutes ago, Buck Edwards said:

Cuteness overload yay. 

Definitely! 

[Forestluv]

12 minutes ago, aurum said:

That Lankford interview was months ago, and he got ripped by a lot of the right-wing for that. There is no big backlash still to come from the right, they have mostly all fallen in line around the decision.

Oops, I didn’t see the date. Yea, any impact is already baked in.