Cenk gets schooled and crushed by top US Historian!

[Hardkill]

Cenk really gets put in his place by Professor Lichtman:

 

[aurum]

Yeah that really looked bad for Cenk. He is getting ripped in the comments.

[Hatfort]

Cenk had a bad night.

[Hardkill]

It looks like a majority of the people in the comments section thought Lichtman won.

Cenk keeps making too many highly exaggerated negative takes on Biden and the Democrats. I used to think he was more reasonable, but now I see that he has become another toxic political commentator, whose contributing to the divisions in our country.

Moreover, he always comes up with many of these long-shot ideas he has for fixing the whole system and winning elections. His ideas haven't ever worked and won't ever work for the foreseeable.

He wasted so much time and money by doing his own presidential run which accomplished nothing at all. 

He is smart and has made a lot of good political analyses, but at the end of the day, Cenk is just another obnoxious pundit.

Edited July 20 by Hardkill

[Raze]

This makes no sense, Biden fails 9 of Alan’s keys and he says Biden would only win if 5 are false.

[Leo Gura]

Cenk is right. Blindly following these "keys" is foolish. 2024 is a unique situation.

Edited July 20 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

 

8 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Cenk is right. Blindly following these "keys" is foolish. 2024 is a unique situation.

You know, they've said about every presidential election. Lichtman has always been told during every presidential election cycle that "you gotta change your keys because we have for the first time ever a black presidential nominee..." or "we have a woman presidential nominee for the first time ever" or "we've never had someone as crazy as Trump in 2016..." or "this is the first presidential election where we've had massive amount of social media being involved in this election..." 

His 13 keys system have worked for every presidential election since 1860 and he has predicted every presidential since 1984 which was before many of us were born. Read his book. 

Also, Biden's age related issue is the same as Reagan's was in 1980 and 1984. Plus, Trump's conviction arguably cancels out Biden's age related issue if not more. 

Polls months or even a few weeks out from an election are in accurate. 

At the end of the day, US History has always shown how Americans have always voted in presidential elections. That may really change if the whole election system changes one day.

Edited July 20 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

His 13 keys system have worked for every presidential election since 1860

Don't care.

2024 is unique.

Edited July 20 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

6 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Don't care.

2024 is unique.

The Key factors or the fundamental factors for every presidential election in US history since Republicans vs. Democrats first competed against each other for political power in 1860 have always been the same.

Let's see what happens when he makes his final prediction in mid to late August for 2024. I bet that he will be right again.

Edited July 20 by Hardkill

[Raze]

3 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

The Key factors or the fundamental factors for every presidential election in US history since Republicans vs. Democrats first competed against each other for political power in 1860 have always been the same.

Let's see what happens when he makes his final prediction in mid to late August for 2024. I bet that he will be right again.

The Keys are too subjective, you can just contort the argument to say they fulfill whoever wins or loses. 

[Hardkill]

17 minutes ago, Raze said:

The Keys are too subjective, you can just contort the argument to say they fulfill whoever wins or loses. 

They aren't subjective. They are based on empirical data, real US political history, and objective expertise. Read his book carefully and follow his Youtube channel.

Do you have a 100% successful track record of understanding and predicting presidential elections like he does? Are you even a top expert on US History and US politics?

Lichtman does say that Trump having been the very first former president and very first presidential nominee from a major party to be a convicted felon and many timed indicted criminal could "blow up the keys" and not foresee that Trump will lose, regardless of what the keys predict. Though we really have to see how that plays out.

However, Cenk is dead wrong about BIden having no chance to win and he's mistaken that someone like Shapiro, Newsom, Whitmer, or Beshear can come in riding on a white horse to "save the Democratic party" and "save our country" from losing in 2024 like some kind of superhero.

No governor, no Senator, no Cabinet member in the Biden administration, no Dem Congressperson, no popular liberal/progressive celebrity, no angel, and no god from the sky is going to come save us from Trump. Just like how no one in the law enforcement and no one in the military is going to save us from Trump either.

The choice is either standing united behind Biden or standing united behind Harris to defeat Trump and MAGA Trump. That's it!

Edited July 20 by Hardkill

[Raze]

1 hour ago, Hardkill said:

Do you have a 100% successful track record of understanding and predicting presidential elections like he does? Are you even a top expert on US History and US politics?

https://web.archive.org/web/20201007203743/http://vvhs.vviewisd.net/ourpages/auto/2013/3/20/58198633/keys to the white house.doc

Quote

Thus, on balance, barring a most improbable turn of events, the American people will ratify the record of the current Democratic administration this year and elect Al Gore president of the United States.

- Allan J. Lichtman 2000

 

[Hardkill]

2 minutes ago, Raze said:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201007203743/http://vvhs.vviewisd.net/ourpages/auto/2013/3/20/58198633/keys to the white house.doc

 

He proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights that 2000 was a stolen election because Gore really won Florida, but corrupt conservatives on SCOTUS didn't allow for a true recount of all of the votes in Florida. Lichtman and other experts besides hime proved that they were a lot more that weren't fairly account for.

[Raze]

18 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

He proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights that 2000 was a stolen election because Gore really won Florida, but corrupt conservatives on SCOTUS didn't allow for a true recount of all of the votes in Florida. Lichtman and other experts besides hime proved that they were a lot more that weren't fairly account for.

He said his system was based on the popular vote but Trump didn’t win the popular vote.

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

Nothing about his system is based on data, just a subjective definition of what qualifies as keys and missing the possibility of important information like when most people don’t think the candidates brain is working.

The choice is lose to Trump badly with Biden, probably still lose but with better odds with Kamala, or probably win with someone else.

Edited July 20 by Raze

[Leo Gura]

This professor is a good example of the abuses of science and academia.

Dismissing Biden's age and health as irrelevant to his reelection chances is foolish beyond comprehension. Biden is barely able to speak. And the more his campaign continues the more this weakness will show itself. If you don't think this matters to voters, you are insane. This election is all about optics and vibes.

No "keys" will save you here.

Frankly, it is uncertain if Biden will even live long enough to his second term. He is melting like an icecream cone in the Vegas summer.

Edited July 20 by Leo Gura

[Merkabah Star]

Cenk can be annoying. That guest was way more annoying tho. 

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

This professor is a good example of the abuses of science and academia.

Dismissing Biden's age and health as irrelevant to his reelection chances is foolish beyond comprehension. Biden is barely able to speak. And the more his campaign continues the more this weakness will show itself. If you don't think this matters to voters, you are insane. This election is all about optics and vibes.

No "keys" will save you here.

Frankly, it is uncertain if Biden will even live long enough to his second term. He is melting like an icecream cone in the Vegas summer.

He predicted Reagan's victory in 1984, back when most people thought that Reagan was too old and showed serious signs of Alzheimer's.

Besides, Harris as the VP has always been Biden's backup in case he doesn't make it for another 1, 2, 3, or 4 years. Everyone knows that. Most people in this country would at least rather have Harris be president than some convicted felon psycho egomaniac monster that Trump 

I am sorry Leo, but I have to disagree with you on this one. With all due respect you're not a top US historian and you haven't lived nearly as long as he has. Moreover, your track record of prediction elections hasn't been as great as the professor's has been. He also has predicted as many Republicans wins as he has predicted Democratic wins for presidential elections since 1984. Plus, his system and expertise has worked in retrospectively for every presidential election since 1860. 

You thought that Ron DeSantis would be a threat to Biden in 2024, and yet he turned out to be such a weak candidate in the 2024 GOP primaries. Lichtman actually could tell a couple months out from the end of his campaign that Desantis had no appeal and that none of the candidates could beat Trump for the GOP nomination.

He predicted that Trump would be impeached during his first term as president and also foresaw Trump getting convicted in the NY election interference case.

Optics and vibes only matter the most in every non-presidential election because most people don't pay attention to any of those races and most people who their state level, local level, or congressional level leaders are. However, everyone in the country knows who the POTUS is and everyone know who the presidential candidates are in the presidential general are by Labor day. 

If you think that optics and vibes alone will save Trump this time, then you are sorely mistaken. If presidential elections were solely based on optics and vibes alone, then Trump who ran a much more energetic campaign than Biden in 2020 would've won re-election back then. 

Teddy Roosevelt, who was one of the most charismatic presidents in US History lost to Woodrow Wilson, who had much less appealing vibe as a candidate, lost in the 1912 presidential election.

I respectfully ask you have an open-mind about this.

Edited July 20 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

31 minutes ago, Merkabah Star said:

Cenk can be annoying. That guest was way more annoying tho. 

The arguments that Cenk made were not as strong as the professor's. Cenk also comes off as being so arrogant and foolhardy. 

The professor has even more common sense and understanding about these matters than Cenk does by far.

Lichtman's in-depth analysis and understanding about US politics rivals that of John Mearsheimer's analysis on international politics and military affairs.

[Raze]

12 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

He predicted Reagan's victory in 1984, back when most people thought that Reagan was too old and showed serious signs of Alzheimer's.

No they didn’t, Reagan had a approval rating of 58 prior to the election

His keys aren’t based on data because whether many of them apply or not is subjective. They succeeded in past elections because he subjectively labels them to fit the winner.

He failed to predict 2000 and argued it’s because the keys predict popular vote, then he predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 and he didn’t but he takes credit for predicting Trumps victory anymore. It is a mediocre prediction mechanism.

[Hardkill]

13 minutes ago, Raze said:

No they didn’t, Reagan had a approval rating of 58 prior to the election

His keys aren’t based on data because whether many of them apply or not is subjective. They succeeded in past elections because he subjectively labels them to fit the winner.

He failed to predict 2000 and argued it’s because the keys predict popular vote, then he predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 and he didn’t but he takes credit for predicting Trumps victory anymore. It is a mediocre prediction mechanism.

Approval ratings don't matter. Even Michael Moore who has been a life long political activist and foresaw Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020, says that approval ratings have become worthless, especially in this day and age. Otherwise, the Dems would've lost badly in 2022 midterms under Biden's watch.

Besides, Reagan still was considered too old and showed real signs of early stage Alzheimer's at the age of 73 (which was like 83 years old for those days). The mainstream and social media has unfairly dramatized and demonized Biden's age issue, even he has done a terrific job as president.

No, again, he predicted the 2000 election correctly and proved to US commissions on Civil Rights how corrupt right-wingers on SCOTUS rigged it for Bush. It was an incredibly close election and it was legitimately not handled fairly by the courts and many ballots were thrown out through voter suppression. Read it up on the official government website online.

Furthermore, ever since 2000, the electoral college has increasingly skewed more and more and more unfairly in the favor of GOP presidential nominee winning the electoral college without having to win popular vote. That's why beginning in 2004, Lichtman begin predicting only the winner of the electoral college in 2004 for following presidential election. He didn't predict that Trump would win the popular vote in 2016. He predicted that he would win the electoral college, thereby winning, the presidency back then. 

You gotta read his whole book and watch his YT channel. He's more than happy to answer any of your question for a small donation fee or joining YT channel membership.

Edited July 20 by Hardkill