President Kamala Harris.

[Leo Gura]

Even if RFK was pulling from the right, it doesn't matter because now those people will def vote Trump where they would have wasted their votes otherwise.

Now RFK has single-handedly enabled MAGA neo-fascism.

Edited August 25, 2024 by Leo Gura

[aurum]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Horseshoe theory is real, folks.

Honestly.

Establishment democrats say Trump is bad, so he must be good 

[Forestluv]

Overall, I think it's a wash. Trump might get about a 1% net boost on the RFK Jr. shift, yet Trump is doubling down on lunatic conspiracy theories / Qanon. Doing so will shift about 1% of undecided voters toward Trump (and some weak Trump supporters shift to undecided). 

It seems Trump is deepening the commitment within his base and marginalizing any dissent. In contrast, Harris has been trying to expand her appeal with a populist messaging that polls well with centrist voters, such as supporting the bipartisan Border Security bill. . .  This doesn't seem to be marginalizing the left since they want to beat Trump so badly. As well, the left was surprised and thrilled that she picked Walz, a solid middle-left pick.

[Leo Gura]

A lot of independants like RFK and now they will be skewing Trump-ward.

[Forestluv]

32 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

A lot of independants like RFK and now they will be skewing Trump-ward.

For sure. . . I'm guessing the net skew overall. If 3% of independents skew Trump-ward and 3.5% of independents skew Harris-ward, it's a net gain for Harris. As well, there may be some left-leaning unlikely voters that shift toward likely voter.  Yet this view is biased toward voting based on reasonableness and could be wrong.

Edited August 25, 2024 by Forestluv

[Leo Gura]

52 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

If 3% of independents skew Trump-ward and 3.5% of independents skew Harris-ward,

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

Edited August 25, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Forestluv]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

I was just considering an RFK Jr. impact on a subset of independents, not how independents might vote overall.

Holistically, I see a lot of variables and can imagine many different scenarios playing out. . . . Whenever I zoom-in to one input (like RFK Jr.) and try to get grounded, lots of other related inputs arise - allowing for other possibilities. 

[Terell Kirby]

Let’s keep in mind that RFK Jr doesn’t speak for all independent/swing voters. For the majority who planned on voting for RFK will certainly vote Trump following this endorsement, which could leave quite an impact in swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania). However, there are still a vast number of undecided voters who will likely make their decision the day of the election (could skew Harris or Trump). I believe this number is greater than that of the designated group of RFK defectors.

At the end of the day it’s a toss up, no one can accurately predict voter turnout or the gut decisions of undecided voters. We only find out when we get the election results.

Edited August 25, 2024 by Terell Kirby

[Raze]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

I doubt that. Trump didn’t even get that in 2016. Those are landslide numbers.

[Extreme Z7]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

If that's true Trump has won reelection.

Still depends on the swing states, I suppose. Let's wait for those poll results.

[Jodistrict]

23 hours ago, aurum said:

Leftist RFK followers, now voting for Trump, is the ultimate irony.

 

Not necessarily.   The question is why has RFK decided that there is a better hope of implementing real changes to the status quo with Trump than with the Democratic Party?   Since RFK is a legitimate progressive with street creds, it could be time for those still in the democratic party to go through some serious introspection and critical analysis.

[aurum]

1 hour ago, Jodistrict said:

Not necessarily.   The question is why has RFK decided that there is a better hope of implementing real changes to the status quo with Trump than with the Democratic Party?   Since RFK is a legitimate progressive with street creds, it could be time for those still in the democratic party to go through some serious introspection and critical analysis.

I don’t have a problem with critiques of the democratic party in general. They can and should be made.

But let’s be clear: if someone thinks a Trump admin is going to implement their progressive vision, they have lost the plot.

Trump and his people are gearing up for Project 2025 authoritarian, social conservatism like we haven’t seen before. There will be nothing progressive about it.

Kennedy is being a fool for this. His bias against the democrats is going to land us in MAGA hell.

[Leo Gura]

Imagine signing a contract with Satan because he promises to do progressive things for you in the future to improve the health of average people.

It's a joke.

Edited August 26, 2024 by Leo Gura

[What Am I]

RFK made the moves he did because he believes in the dangers of an upcoming illiberal technocracy posed by international centers of power such as those affiliated with the World Economic Forum. From listening to his words and having a loose understanding of the conspiracy theory, it's quite clear that's what he's referencing. So he views Trump as the lesser evil when compared against something of that magnitude.

I saw a post a few months ago where someone asked Leo about the WEF, and he replied that he wasn't informed enough to comment. I'm guessing nobody else here has a strong grasp on any of those details either, as it's not the type of reporting that'd make its way into this circle. That's perfectly fine and good because there's little evidence the conspiracy actually exists, but it's caused you all to be scratching your heads as to why RFK would do this.

For the record, I don't know much about the WEF/NWO mythos either, but I know enough to recognize when others are aware. I'm not posting this to start a conspiracy argument. I just wanted to point you guys in the right direction so you have a clearer view as to why RFK would do such a thing.

 

Edited August 26, 2024 by What Am I

[Leo Gura]

17 minutes ago, What Am I said:

but it's caused you all to be scratching your heads as to why RFK would do this.

We are not scratching our heads. It was obvious from a mile away that RFK would use a conspiracy theory to justify turning against the Dems. This is like the one thing you can count on him to do.

We don't care about his conspiratorial rationalizations. RFK believes AIDS doesn't exist. He's a lunatic who believes in stupid things and then weasles around it when confronted in public. Nobody with intelligence should take him seriously. RFK is a trap in human form. Entrusting the Presidency to a mind like RFK's is beyond irresponsible.

Edited August 26, 2024 by Leo Gura

[What Am I]

51 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

We are not scratching our heads. It was obvious from a mile away that RFK would use a conspiracy theory to justify turning against the Dems. This is like the one thing you can count on him to do.

We don't care about his conspiratorial rationalizations. RFK believes AIDS doesn't exist. He's a lunatic who believes in stupid things and then weasles around it when confronted in public. Nobody with intelligence should take him seriously. RFK is a trap in human form. Entrusting the Presidency to a mind like RFK's is beyond irresponsible.

Would you draw a distinction between the two choices of simply claiming your enemy is a frothing-at-the-mouth raving lunatic and comprehending their motivations on a deeper level? Which methodology would you rather use to go to war?

Edited August 26, 2024 by What Am I

[Leo Gura]

22 minutes ago, What Am I said:

Would you draw a distinction between the two choices of simply claiming your enemy is a frothing-at-the-mouth raving lunatic and comprehending their motivations on a deeper level? Which methodology would you rather use to go to war?

Ideally you would get inside his mind and comprehend. And I have done that to some extent. I don't just call him a lunatic reflexively. I listened to his ideas seriously, and what I tell you now is my ultimate conclusion.

You are welcome to research RFK's worldview and make up your own mind. But I am done being charitable to him. It's a waste of my time.

Edited August 26, 2024 by Leo Gura

[What Am I]

27 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Ideally you would get inside his mind and comprehend. And I have done that to some extent. I don't just call him a lunatic reflexively. I listened to his ideas seriously, and what I tell you now is my ultimate conclusion.

Fair enough, the choices I presented were obviously exaggerated polar opposites. No doubt you and everyone else here falls somewhere in between them. My whole point in making these posts is to shed a bit more light on a specific type of belief that many people have, and it's a strongly motivating factor for them indeed. It could be worth a closer look just to understand the basics tenets of the conspiracy theory.

As a tip, an AI chatbot of reasonable quality will do an excellent job summarizing if you feed it a query such as "According to the conspiracy theory relating to the World Economic Forum, what are all its goals?" If you observe those bullet points and then compare them to statements made by certain public figures, a lot of understanding regarding motivations should click into place.

Edited August 26, 2024 by What Am I

[Jodistrict]

Robert Kennedy fully explained his actions and gave his reasons in his speech I provided in a previous post. 

 

 

 

 

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Jodistrict said:

Robert Kennedy fully explained his actions and gave his reasons in his speech I provided in a previous post. 

The issue is that he has brainwashed himself to believe his own rationalizations. That's exactly what Alex Jones does. RFK is Alex Jones lite. He suffers from the same epistemic mind-rot and it infects everything he says and does.

Edited August 26, 2024 by Leo Gura