Presidential Debate + RFK

[BlueOak]

Limited Socialism fixes social issues, because its always the missing piece. Now the missing piece is going to be liberalism and socialism, which is why there are riots in France and people complaining about the riots.

The more of life that is excluded or unconscious, the greater the instability.

[Merkabah Star]

On 30/6/2024 at 3:07 PM, Leo Gura said:

Just stop with this BS.

Fair enough. Foreigners do look at US politics in a different way so opinions can be brutal. I will tone it down.

I do agree with you about Bernie Sanders and also Gavin Newsom being the nomination. Maybe Newsom could swing it around? I vote to the left in my own country. 

Edited July 1 by Merkabah Star

[zazen]

9 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Not really.

Progressives like TYT offer a bold leftist vision but conservatives and Stage Blue hate and demonize that even more than Biden.

The reality is that many of these brainwashed ignorant Stage Blue people are too far gone to be ameniable to any form of Stage Green.

A Christian Nationalist is not want of a bold progressive vision. Fundamentalism is precisely a reactionary movement against progess.

These people want a patriarchal state run by a strongman who puts anyone in line who steps out of the orthodox line. This is what many people crave. They want a Christian hierarchy of elites which in their view is ordained by God.

They are too ignorant, closedminded, and under-developed to compromise on that.

If anything, bold progressivism scares normies off to side with Blue. All that trans stuff and drag shows have scared off normies. Normies are deeply attached to traditional culture.

Got it, so the rise of Christian Nationalism isn't due to a lack of vision from progressives but a reaction to a vision they don't like - in some cases they probably can't even see the vision.

I think what happens is that stage green's excesses or shadow elements get spotlighted by normies which causes them to go 'better to stay in our bubble because look at that shit over there'. For example just yesterday I've been seeing right wing/normie twitter sharing the degeneracy of grown men walking in San Francisco with their dicks out in front of children for Pride month - and a cop saying its fine.  A public blowjob also took place - https://x.com/CensoredMen/status/1807591499061772462

So while fundamentalism may be a reaction to progressivism, we can understand whats causing it. I also think when people have children they tend to tilt towards conservatism.  Like Russell Brand recently becoming a dad and now turning to Christianity.  It's not just about faith - it's about the challenge of breaking down complex ideas for young minds. Distilling nuanced perspectives for kids isn't easy. So parents feel this pressure to present a solid identity, something their kids can latch onto and emulate. It's like they're trying to be a stable lighthouse in a often chaotic and confusing world.

So most, out a of need for identity, belonging and convenience turn to religion. It's like a ready made kit of values and world views, neatly packaged in an easy to transmit format. It's the fast food of moral frameworks - quick, convenient, and easily passed down to the next generation. The issue is that along with those valuable life lessons comes a lot of baggage of religious literalism, dogma and half truths. 

Edited July 1 by zazen

[Scholar]

11 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

He is bad in other areas like Israel.

But I would be okay with RFK to get rid of Trump. That is a reasonable compromise.

Have you heard what he said about Ukraine? The guy is an existential threat.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

People don't vote on issues, they vote on culture, Spiral stage, and vibes.

https://www.actualized.org/insights/why-bernie-sanders-lost

[Dabidoe]

It should not surprise anyone that any presidential candidate that lacks broad-appeal, is unable to play to "middle america", garner outsized attention is incapable of winning the presidency.

People like Bernie and AOC move culture (shift overton window etc.) but the people who "win" in politics are the ones who play the popularity contest of making promises you can't/don't intend to deliver on based on appealing to the middle, not the purity of virtues or ideology.

Edited July 1 by Dabidoe

[hundreth]

21 hours ago, aurum said:

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

Edited July 1 by hundreth

[Hardkill]

49 minutes ago, hundreth said:

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

It’s a valid question you bring out. However, it’s looking like Biden and his entire party have now been the ones who been underestimated by the polls. Look at the extraordinary amount of times the Democrats have overperformed in all of these elections since 2022. Also, Trump had significantly underperformed every single 2024 GOP presidential primary.

I think there are a lot of quiet Biden voters this time around who don’t want to bother responding to the polls or pollsters. They that many young throughout the country really don't want to bother by any of these polls because they either have decided to completely tuned out of the news after going through the trauma of COVID or they are too busy partying with their friends or are intensely focused doing on the ground grassroots activism for issues such as climate change, reproductive rights for women, affordability, etc.

Edited July 1 by Hardkill

[aurum]

1 hour ago, hundreth said:

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

Interpret the polling how you want. I don’t think a blowout is going to happen.

[Yimpa]

19 minutes ago, aurum said:

Interpret the polling how you want. I don’t think a blowout is going to happen.

I see a blowout. To each their own, though 

[Leo Gura]

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

[Leo Gura]

11 hours ago, Scholar said:

Have you heard what he said about Ukraine? The guy is an existential threat.

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

Edited July 1 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

13 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

But the US approved strikes inside Russia and Russia announced it is no longer at peace with the US

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Raze said:

But the US approved strikes inside Russia and Russia announced it is no longer at peace with the US

As I said, the US needs to back off Russia's doorstep.

Edited July 1 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

 

[Raze]

52 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

 

[Karmadhi]

45 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

As I said, the US needs to back off Russia's doorstep.

Why dont people vote for Bernie?

He is pro most of the population in terms of lowering cost of health care and education.

It benefits most people.

Meanwhile Trump is pro only the rich.

If democrats run Bernie for example, why would your average folk not vote for someone that would make education, health care etc cheap for him?

Sorry if it sounds stupid but I live in Western Europe so my mind cannot comprehend picking someone that benefits the rich over someone that benefits your average Joe (if I am the average joe).

[LSD-Rumi]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

Russia has a big appetite, they proved that when they first invaded Ukraine in 2014 and took Crimea. A move that fueled the current conflict.

Supporting Ukraine represents putting a leash on Wild Russia.

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

 

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

Swing state polls, especially those in the midwestern states, are even more prone to polling errors according to many experts. Look what happened in 2016, when the polls back then predicted around election day that Hillary would comfortably win each of the swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Yet, she lost all of those states to Trump in the in the electoral college back then. 

 

 

Edited July 2 by Hardkill

[aurum]

36 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Why dont people vote for Bernie?

He is pro most of the population in terms of lowering cost of health care and education.

It benefits most people.

Meanwhile Trump is pro only the rich.

If democrats run Bernie for example, why would your average folk not vote for someone that would make education, health care etc cheap for him?

Sorry if it sounds stupid but I live in Western Europe so my mind cannot comprehend picking someone that benefits the rich over someone that benefits your average Joe (if I am the average joe).

Bernie is a SD Green progressive, which is unappealing to most people in the US.

If he seems like such an obvious choice to you, that's because you are also likely around SD Green.