Presidential Debate + RFK

[hundreth]

21 hours ago, aurum said:

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

Edited July 1, 2024 by hundreth

[Hardkill]

49 minutes ago, hundreth said:

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

It’s a valid question you bring out. However, it’s looking like Biden and his entire party have now been the ones who been underestimated by the polls. Look at the extraordinary amount of times the Democrats have overperformed in all of these elections since 2022. Also, Trump had significantly underperformed every single 2024 GOP presidential primary.

I think there are a lot of quiet Biden voters this time around who don’t want to bother responding to the polls or pollsters. They that many young throughout the country really don't want to bother by any of these polls because they either have decided to completely tuned out of the news after going through the trauma of COVID or they are too busy partying with their friends or are intensely focused doing on the ground grassroots activism for issues such as climate change, reproductive rights for women, affordability, etc.

Edited July 1, 2024 by Hardkill

[aurum]

1 hour ago, hundreth said:

I don't understand the logic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had an 8-9 point lead heading into the 2020 election and he barely won. Hilary had a 4 point lead heading into the election and she lost.

You need at least a 7-8 pt lead in polling to beat Trump. He always outperforms the polls. The elections are close because Trump outperforms. If Trump is already ahead, then you're looking at a blowout.

Yes, Biden is going to be blown out.

Interpret the polling how you want. I don’t think a blowout is going to happen.

[Yimpa]

19 minutes ago, aurum said:

Interpret the polling how you want. I don’t think a blowout is going to happen.

I see a blowout. To each their own, though 

[Leo Gura]

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

[Leo Gura]

11 hours ago, Scholar said:

Have you heard what he said about Ukraine? The guy is an existential threat.

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

Edited July 1, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

13 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

But the US approved strikes inside Russia and Russia announced it is no longer at peace with the US

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Raze said:

But the US approved strikes inside Russia and Russia announced it is no longer at peace with the US

As I said, the US needs to back off Russia's doorstep.

Edited July 1, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

 

[Raze]

52 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

 

[Karmadhi]

45 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

As I said, the US needs to back off Russia's doorstep.

Why dont people vote for Bernie?

He is pro most of the population in terms of lowering cost of health care and education.

It benefits most people.

Meanwhile Trump is pro only the rich.

If democrats run Bernie for example, why would your average folk not vote for someone that would make education, health care etc cheap for him?

Sorry if it sounds stupid but I live in Western Europe so my mind cannot comprehend picking someone that benefits the rich over someone that benefits your average Joe (if I am the average joe).

[LSD-Rumi]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't see Ukraine as existential. The US has way too much influence in that region where it doesn't belong. The US is overreaching and causing needless trouble for itself. Backing off with NATO is the wisest course of action. There is no threat to the US or NATO from Russia. That is paranoia.

Russia has a big appetite, they proved that when they first invaded Ukraine in 2014 and took Crimea. A move that fueled the current conflict.

Supporting Ukraine represents putting a leash on Wild Russia.

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

 

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Never cite national polls, they are irrelevant. You must only look at polls in swing stages.

Swing state polls, especially those in the midwestern states, are even more prone to polling errors according to many experts. Look what happened in 2016, when the polls back then predicted around election day that Hillary would comfortably win each of the swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Yet, she lost all of those states to Trump in the in the electoral college back then. 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2024 by Hardkill

[aurum]

36 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Why dont people vote for Bernie?

He is pro most of the population in terms of lowering cost of health care and education.

It benefits most people.

Meanwhile Trump is pro only the rich.

If democrats run Bernie for example, why would your average folk not vote for someone that would make education, health care etc cheap for him?

Sorry if it sounds stupid but I live in Western Europe so my mind cannot comprehend picking someone that benefits the rich over someone that benefits your average Joe (if I am the average joe).

Bernie is a SD Green progressive, which is unappealing to most people in the US.

If he seems like such an obvious choice to you, that's because you are also likely around SD Green.

[Raze]

3 minutes ago, aurum said:

Bernie is a SD Green progressive, which is unappealing to most people in the US.

If he seems like such an obvious choice to you, that's because you are also likely around SD Green.

Hypothetical matchup polls had Bernie beating Trump comfortably 

[aurum]

5 hours ago, Yimpa said:

I see a blowout. To each their own, though 

Actually I'd rather we'd debate this.

If you think Biden is going to get blown out, then I have to assume you also think it would be a good idea to replace him.

This is a serious discussion that needs to be had. It's not something to just shrug off as a difference of opinion. 

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

Yes, that's where the real trouble is. The polls paint a grim picture.

Edited July 2, 2024 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

4 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Swing state polls, especially those in the midwestern states, are even more prone to polling errors according to many experts. Look what happened in 2016, when the polls back then predicted around election day that Hillary would comfortably win each of the swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Yet, she lost all of those states to Trump in the in the electoral college back then. 

if the swing state polls overestimate democratic support that is even worse for Biden 

[aurum]

4 minutes ago, Raze said:

Hypothetical matchup polls had Bernie beating Trump comfortably 

And that's a great example of how polling can be misleading.

Bernie couldn't even secure the democratic nomination, let alone beat Trump.

For all the progressives that were upset about Bernie losing, in retrospect I think we need to consider the fact that Joe Biden actually had the better shot of beating Trump.

So if you don't like Trump, you should in a sense be happy about Biden's victory. Because otherwise you'd have another 4 years of Trump.

Edited July 2, 2024 by aurum

[Raze]

20 minutes ago, aurum said:

And that's a great example of how polling can be misleading.

Bernie couldn't even secure the democratic nomination, let alone beat Trump.

For all the progressives that were upset about Bernie losing, in retrospect I think we need to consider the fact that Joe Biden actually had the better shot of beating Trump.

So if you don't like Trump, you should in a sense be happy about Biden's victory. Because otherwise you'd have another 4 years of Trump.

The base that votes in the primary is very different than the base that votes in the general because far more people vote in the general and winning over independents is much more important.

Not only do I think Bernie would have beat trump had he won the nomination, I think he wouldn’t have such a huge ego to try and run again if he was dying like Biden is doing, and he would shift the landscape of political discourse to a much healthier place even if his proposals didn’t get past. When he was running so many people were talking about Medicare for all, tax loopholes, corporate control or politics, and failed foreign intervention. As opposed to now where its identity bs, who will give Israel more bombs, and which candidate has dementia.

Edited July 2, 2024 by Raze