Presidential Debate + RFK

[aurum]

17 minutes ago, hundreth said:

The election was very close and came down to the wire.

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

[Yimpa]

3 minutes ago, aurum said:

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

Polls are true, but the humans deciphering them have a hazy mind.

[aurum]

12 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

Maybe this will give him a chance

It won't.

His only chance is if Biden dies before the election or drops out. But neither of those things seem likely.

In addition, I'm assuming the Dems would just run someone else. In which case he'd still be out.

[Hatfort]

4 minutes ago, aurum said:

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

It's not about the event the other night. Yeah, Biden lost, no matter what Trump said, but the problem goes beyond that. Four years ago he could still speak well and inspire some leadership. The debate showed how much he has deteriorated, his age caught up, and everyone saw it. The way he moves, speaks and his expression have changed, and is going to get much worse during the next years in which he pretends to govern.

The debate not only turned some undecided votes to Trump, but will demotivate part of the bases that don't like Trump, and could have voted the alternative, but won't do it for such an old man. I understand there's a team behind every president, but I find almost insulting that the Democratic party pretends people to vote for someone in this condition for such an important position.

We should be talking about the awful lies of Trump and the good things that has achieved Biden, but the conversation is about his age and condition of him. It's the elephant in the room, there's no way to unsee it, and avoiding addressing it is not even possible. The only way out is to get another candidate, but won't happen. Trump is going to win.

[Raze]

1 hour ago, aurum said:

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

That doesn’t make any sense. He had a comfortable lead of 7 in polling in 2020 then it came down to a wire. He’s not behind in polling. Why should be bank everything on the possibility he’ll make it rather than go for a new candidate who is more popular.

[aurum]

1 hour ago, Hatfort said:

It's not about the event the other night. Yeah, Biden lost, no matter what Trump said, but the problem goes beyond that. Four years ago he could still speak well and inspire some leadership. The debate showed how much he has deteriorated, his age caught up, and everyone saw it. The way he moves, speaks and his expression have changed, and is going to get much worse during the next years in which he pretends to govern.The debate not only turned some undecided votes to Trump, but will demotivate part of the bases that don't like Trump, and could have voted the alternative, but won't do it for such an old man.

These debates don't matter much in the end.

If he dies in office, then Kamala will be president. That's a far superior outcome than Trump winning.

1 hour ago, Hatfort said:

I understand there's a team behind every president, but I find almost insulting that the Democratic party pretends people to vote for someone in this condition for such an important position.

I don't like Biden's age either. But this is where we are at.

Whether or not it's insulting is irrelvant. Politics is highly pragmatic. It's like you are stepping onto a battlefield. 

Gavin Newsom is an interesting alternative but I've not seen any indication he will be running. Nor do I have a sense that doing so would even be feasible given our time constraints. Nor do I believe he would necessarily be more popular.

So unless somehow that all changes, calls for Biden to step down are just hot air that divide party unity.

1 hour ago, Hatfort said:

We should be talking about the awful lies of Trump and the good things that has achieved Biden

Some people are doing just that.

Right now things are focused on the debate, but people will move on. 

1 hour ago, Hatfort said:

Trump is going to win

Speculation.

We don't know that.

Edited June 30 by aurum

[aurum]

9 minutes ago, Raze said:

for a new candidate who is more popular

Like who?

There is no one more popular.

[Raze]

6 minutes ago, aurum said:

Like who?

There is no one more popular.

So you think the best the democrats have to offer is someone who can barely talk with 36% approval?

[Husseinisdoingfine]

I do encourage people to check out this thread I made:

 

[Hatfort]

25 minutes ago, aurum said:

These debates don't matter much in the end.

Yeah, I told you that, the issue is not the other day's debate, the issue is that he can't debate anymore. Don't misunderstand, we are not talking about debates here, he is not capable of reading the room he is in, and what's happening around him without someone telling him.

A lot of people is not going to vote for that mess no matter how awful the other person is. Even some people who could have voted for him is going to vote for Trump, because at least he is capable of basic things for his jobs like traveling to other countries and meet other presidents and have conversations with them.

I don't care that much that the team behind his corpse covers for him, I care that we are not going to get to that because he is not going to win.

[Leo Gura]

13 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

Even some people who could have voted for him is going to vote for Trump, because at least he is capable of basic things for his jobs like traveling to other countries and meet other presidents and have conversations with them.

Biden just got back from a trip to France for the WW2 victory celebrations, meeting with European leaders.

[aurum]

43 minutes ago, Raze said:

So you think the best the democrats have to offer is someone who can barely talk with 36% approval?

Don't turn this into an attack on democrats. Biden's admin was highly successful for the past four years.

[aurum]

19 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

Yeah, I told you that, the issue is not the other day's debate, the issue is that he can't debate anymore. Don't misunderstand, we are not talking about debates here, he is not capable of reading the room he is in, and what's happening around him without someone telling him.

This is an exaggeration.

19 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

A lot of people is not going to vote for that mess no matter how awful the other person is. Even some people who could have voted for him is going to vote for Trump

That's what we've got to work to prevent. Hence why I'm writing what I'm writing.

Some of that is probably inevitable. It's more a matter of whether it's enough to actually make a difference.

19 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

I don't care that much that the team behind his corpse covers for him, I care that we are not going to get to that because he is not going to win.

If you are so sure Trump will win and that Biden can't, then please present your superior, alternative solution.

Otherwise there is no point going on about this. Just campaign for Biden the best you can and let it go.

[Hatfort]

I think the Democratic Party needed three pillars. First was how awful the opponent is, that still works. Second, some accomplishments to show about his current term, at least in socio-economic areas, I think there's something there too. The Palestinian conflict will not help, the student and Muslim communities' support are likely affected. Third was the candidate and a good campaign where you need to show him more than hide him. Right now it's better to hide the man, that's bad. Every appearance of him is a potential disaster.

It was needed for undecided voters not to have a clear reason like this where they could say Trump is better. Now they have it.

 

[Leo Gura]

Big problem for Biden is that he presents no big vision of change. It's all minor incremental, defensive stuff. Nothing bold for his base to get excited about.

Meanwhile Trump presents his base with a juicy vision of overturning the entire liberal order.

Biden had to come out and say that in 2025 we are:

• Legalizing weed
• Increasing corporate taxes
• Wealth tax on billionaires
• Green energy
• Federal right to abortion
• Reforming the corrupt Supreme Court
• Ending Israeli war
• Cracking down on monoplies and corporate wolves
• Cutting 500 drug prices in half
• Cracking down on corruption and white collar crime.
• Cracking down on illegal immigration
• Regulating AI companies and Big Tech
• Major funding for education
• Major funding for infrastructure
• Raising minimum wage

Edited June 30 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

2 hours ago, Hatfort said:

It's not about the event the other night. Yeah, Biden lost, no matter what Trump said, but the problem goes beyond that. Four years ago he could still speak well and inspire some leadership. The debate showed how much he has deteriorated, his age caught up, and everyone saw it. The way he moves, speaks and his expression have changed, and is going to get much worse during the next years in which he pretends to govern.

The debate not only turned some undecided votes to Trump, but will demotivate part of the bases that don't like Trump, and could have voted the alternative, but won't do it for such an old man. I understand there's a team behind every president, but I find almost insulting that the Democratic party pretends people to vote for someone in this condition for such an important position.

Actually, Trump apparently lost a lot of undecided voters to Biden after that debate:

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-presidential-debate-2024-election-hispanic-latino-voters-1918893

[Hardkill]

17 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

I think the Democratic Party needed three pillars. First was how awful the opponent is, that still works. Second, some accomplishments to show about his current term, at least in socio-economic areas, I think there's something there too. The Palestinian conflict will not help, the student and Muslim communities' support are likely affected. Third was the candidate and a good campaign where you need to show him more than hide him. Right now it's better to hide the man, that's bad. Every appearance of him is a potential disaster.

It was needed for undecided voters not to have a clear reason like this where they could say Trump is better. Now they have it.

 

What solid proof do you have of that?

[Hatfort]

1 minute ago, Hardkill said:

Actually, Trump apparently lost a lot of undecided voters to Biden after that debate:

I don't buy it. You can't mold the reality that much. The debate was awful for Biden's image, this damaged his position, and it's a one-against-one race, so Trump is better than before now in consequence.

[Hatfort]

4 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

What solid proof do you have of that?

I'm providing my analysis of the current situation and making a prediction. I never pretended otherwise.

[zazen]

43 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Big problem for Biden is that he presents no big vision of change. It's all minor incremental, defensive stuff. Nothing bold for his base to get excited about.

Meaning Trump presents his based with a juicy vision of overturning the entire liberal order.

Biden had to come out and say that in 2025 we are:

• Legalizing weed
• Increasing corporate taxes
• Wealth tax on billionaires
• Green energy
• Federal right to abortion
• Reforming the corrupt Supreme Court
• Ending Israeli war
• Cracking down on monoplies and corporate wolves
• Cutting 500 drug prices in half
• Cracking down on corruption and white collar crime.
• Cracking down on illegal immigration
• Regulating AI companies and Big Tech

Thars what’s needed. Biden's presidency is less "hope and change" and more "nope and the same." He's the political equivalent of a participation trophy - there just for showing up, but not presenting a bold vision and stepping into it, he can barely step up the airforce 1.

Biden's not Trump. And for a lot of people that's enough. But "not being the other guy" is a pretty low bar for the leader of a major power. US has gone from "Yes We Can" to "At Least He's Not That Guy." It's like being excited that your car's on fire because at least it's not exploding.

Progressives aren’t excited for Biden, but are for not having Trump. They aren’t playing to win but to not lose - a negative excitement, which isn’t really excitement at all. It’s lukewarm political loyalty. It's familiar and safe, but it's ultimately unsatisfying and out of touch with what America actually needs right now.

Edited June 30 by zazen