Presidential Debate + RFK

[Husseinisdoingfine]

This video was also pretty good.

 

[Yimpa]

Leo’s latest blog post. It’s very long, so make sure you’re not distracted or have brain fog when you read it:

https://www.actualized.org/insights/christian-nationalism

[Yimpa]

Terrible headline, but beautifully written piece:

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/first-presidential-debate-joe-biden-donald-trump-withdraw-20240629.html

(terrible in the sense that Trump would never in a million years withdraw on his own terms)

Edited June 30, 2024 by Yimpa

[hundreth]

22 hours ago, aurum said:

And what is your alternative solution?

 

21 hours ago, mrPixel said:

I agree, but what alternative do we have?

It almost doesn't matter. You can take a shot blindfolded and still have a better chance than going with Biden. 

Biden has a 0, ZERO percent chance of winning. Even if there are issues with running someone new this late, you take the chance 10 times out of 10. 

[lostingenosmaze]

 

[hundreth]

To those desperately clinging to Biden because you worry about unintended consequences. Don't be afraid to do what needs to be done.

Like a relationship in your personal life that is doomed to failure, it always feels safer to stay with what is known and comfortable. Coupled with sunk cost fallacy, the tendency is to remain inside this sinking ship.

We need to drop Biden, now.

[mrPixel]

I think that any dem with even mildly progressive values could beat trump in the election. The dems are risking the election by not offering another candidate on the ticket.

[aurum]

52 minutes ago, hundreth said:

It almost doesn't matter. You can take a shot blindfolded and still have a better chance than going with Biden. 

Biden has a 0, ZERO percent chance of winning. Even if there are issues with running someone new this late, you take the chance 10 times out of 10. 

Absolutely not.

Biden has a perfectly reasonable chance of winning. That was true before this debate, and it's still true now. It's very hard to blow your chances that badly, especially when you are the incumbent. 

You are also not appreciating what kind of campaign it takes to get someone elected president. There won't just be some "issues". It's a complete fantasy.

If you have concerns about Biden, that needed to be addressed months or even years ago.

The time for these kind of conversations is over.

[Yimpa]

A lot can change in the next several months. Let’s not allow fear and propaganda to distract US.

[Raze]

59 minutes ago, aurum said:

Absolutely not.

Biden has a perfectly reasonable chance of winning. That was true before this debate, and it's still true now. It's very hard to blow your chances that badly, especially when you are the incumbent. 

Trump is currently ahead in polls 

[Scholar]

11 minutes ago, Raze said:

Trump is currently ahead in polls 

From what I understand it is not really politically feasible to change the candidate at this point. Seems to me like Trump is going to win, that's my current expectations. I'll be positively surprised if people aren't as irrational as I assume they might be.

[Raze]

1 minute ago, Scholar said:

From what I understand it is not really politically feasible to change the candidate at this point. Seems to me like Trump is going to win, that's my current expectations. I'll be positively surprised if people aren't as irrational as I assume they might be.

It is because the convention hasn’t happened yet 

[Scholar]

1 minute ago, Raze said:

It is because the convention hasn’t happened yet 

Could be, but that is an assumption. In the end that would be a big risk, and it's not that clear if Biden will actually suffer from this debate as much as one might assume.

I would prefer if they tried to replace him but I can see that it might not be the best course of action.

[aurum]

19 minutes ago, Raze said:

Trump is currently ahead in polls 

That changes nothing in terms of the point I was making.

[hundreth]

1 hour ago, aurum said:

Biden has a perfectly reasonable chance of winning.

Why do you believe this?

In 2020, Biden won the debates and was way ahead in the polling. Trump vastly outperformed the polls. The election was very close and came down to the wire.

Now, Biden was already behind. That's why they took this hail mary debate initiative. It backfired tremendously. Now, he's even way further behind.

He has no chance.

[Yimpa]

Only in America…

 

[aurum]

17 minutes ago, hundreth said:

The election was very close and came down to the wire.

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

[Yimpa]

3 minutes ago, aurum said:

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

Polls are true, but the humans deciphering them have a hazy mind.

[aurum]

12 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

Maybe this will give him a chance

It won't.

His only chance is if Biden dies before the election or drops out. But neither of those things seem likely.

In addition, I'm assuming the Dems would just run someone else. In which case he'd still be out.

[Hatfort]

4 minutes ago, aurum said:

And that's exactly what will happen again. Which is why he has a very reasonable chance.

If you think Biden is suddenly going to get blown out, that shows you don't really understand how presidential elections work. You can't get sucked into the hysteria of these kind of smaller media events. They come and they go.

What is going to happen is that all the blue states will still go to Biden. And all the red states will still go to Trump.

Then we have the purple swing states, like Arizona, Ohio etc. It will be very close in these states, with predictions being difficult to make either way. So overall it's tight, with Trump certainly being able to win. But Biden can certainly win as well.

Don't forget that Biden is the incumbent who did a good job during his term.

Polling is interesting but it misses a lot.

It's not about the event the other night. Yeah, Biden lost, no matter what Trump said, but the problem goes beyond that. Four years ago he could still speak well and inspire some leadership. The debate showed how much he has deteriorated, his age caught up, and everyone saw it. The way he moves, speaks and his expression have changed, and is going to get much worse during the next years in which he pretends to govern.

The debate not only turned some undecided votes to Trump, but will demotivate part of the bases that don't like Trump, and could have voted the alternative, but won't do it for such an old man. I understand there's a team behind every president, but I find almost insulting that the Democratic party pretends people to vote for someone in this condition for such an important position.

We should be talking about the awful lies of Trump and the good things that has achieved Biden, but the conversation is about his age and condition of him. It's the elephant in the room, there's no way to unsee it, and avoiding addressing it is not even possible. The only way out is to get another candidate, but won't happen. Trump is going to win.