Trump is going to win the election

[Jodistrict]

2 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Contrary to all this talk from most of the pundits and pollsters out there, Biden is the Democrat best chance of defeating Trump again. Do not underestimate the electoral advantage an incumbent president still has, even in this day and age. Plus, if Biden dropped out then we would have had a bloody primary, especially when the Democrats have no known heir apparent to Biden. That would greatly hurt the Democratic party's chances of keeping the White House, just like what happened in 2016, because in such a scenario the American people would question the governance of Biden and his party since they are the one's mainly in charge of the country.

16 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

If Trump wins, its the Democrat Party's fault.   Their organization is incompetent, corrupt or doesn't have what it takes to force Biden to retire and get someone who still has all his marbles like Newsom.  

But why not have a chaotic primary?  A leader could emerge that people are really excited about, which would be the best advantage to have.  It shows that the strategists don’t have much faith in a democratic process, that they would rather stick with a senile old man who can barely walk.  So they organize things from the top down which isn’t democratic.   

[Hardkill]

45 minutes ago, Jodistrict said:

But why not have a chaotic primary?  A leader could emerge that people are really excited about, which would be the best advantage to have.  It shows that the strategists don’t have much faith in a democratic process, that they would rather stick with a senile old man who can barely walk.  So they organize things from the top down which isn’t democratic.   

You're not getting it. A chaotic primary for the party in power would demonstrate to people that people on both sides think the party in power can't governing and can't unite their party, let alone unite the country well.

Moreover, why would you have the Democrats give up the tremendous advantage of incumbency, especially when our country has been in a period of real stability, real prosperity, and real historic progress under Biden and his party?

Edited June 24 by Hardkill

[ryandesreu]

17 hours ago, Jodistrict said:

If Trump wins, its the Democrat Party's fault.   Their organization is incompetent, corrupt or doesn't have what it takes to force Biden to retire and get someone who still has all his marbles like Newsom.  

If Mr. Trump wins it's the democrat's fault? One would think that the people who vote for him and the politicians that cower to him would be more responsible if he wins. 

[DocWatts]

Best guess - Biden will handily win the popular vote by 3 - 5 million, while just barely squeaking out a narrow victory in the electoral college.

If you live in the US, and especially if you reside within a swing state, and you've ever thought about political canvasing, it's basically now or never, since the election is highly likely to be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of strategic states - Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

[DocWatts]

Also, it's worth keeping in mind that the Republican Party has been consistently underperforming in elections since 2018. While the Democratic Party has been consistently outperforming the polls during that same period. The supposed 'red wave' of 2022 never materialized, and Republicans got their asses handed to them in the special elections across the country over the past 2 years.

Trump has failed to grow his base since losing in 2020, and in that time he's become a convicted felon. Meanwhile the Republican Party has only doubled down on the unpopular abortion bans that have cost them big electorally. 

While this doesn't mean that Biden is on a fast track to an easy reelection, I'd argue that Trump rather than Biden has more an uphill battle to get reelected.

Edited June 25 by DocWatts

[Buck Edwards]

On 24/06/2024 at 2:47 AM, Hardkill said:

Results: They want to see tangible improvements in their lives and the country. Trump totally let the country down when he was president, especially during his last year in office, when our country was in complete and utter hell. Only the MAGA Republicans truly believe that he is competent leader, whereas most Americans find him to be a disgrace, a con man, a loser, and a failed president.

Not Trumpsters. 

[ryandesreu]

I think the main thing that would prevent Biden from reelect is the noticeable price increase of gas, food, and rent since he's been president. People think that he is solely to blame for the higher prices, and prices affect everybody. 

People remember that prices were lower when Mr. Trump was in office, and they think it is a direct correlation. They believe that with Mr. T back in power, prices will be better, and that's the bottom line for them. That's just what I've heard from voters.

[BlueOak]

On 25/06/2024 at 8:28 PM, ryandesreu said:

I think the main thing that would prevent Biden from reelect is the noticeable price increase of gas, food, and rent since he's been president. People think that he is solely to blame for the higher prices, and prices affect everybody. 

People remember that prices were lower when Mr. Trump was in office, and they think it is a direct correlation. They believe that with Mr. T back in power, prices will be better, and that's the bottom line for them. That's just what I've heard from voters.

I often try to tell people economies usually win elections, it's hard in the current internet age of sensationalist drama to get this message to people on the internet, but it's still true for working people who make up the majority of the electorate. Immigration is pretty big this year, as well, at least in Europe; I hear it's similar in the US.
 

[Leo Gura]

This election will be at least 50% about Biden's age.

Edited June 28 by Leo Gura

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

This election will be at least 50% about Biden's age.

Yes. After seeing reactions to the debate I agree.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

 

[integral]

 

[Raze]

15 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

This election will be at least 50% about Biden's age.

Cenk was right, the dems should have had a primary. 

[Hatfort]

The debate settled it, there were hints of the decline before, but this showed another level yet unseen. The man can't speak clearly, he gets lost in his head, and is not fit for the job.

Cenk Uygur was saying it a year before, the man was so right. He is asking for a replacement now.

This is what the Democrats should do right now but won't do. Biden quits the race, explaining he thought he would be in better shape and wanted to serve another term, but that sees it's not how it is, so he accepts to leave his place to someone younger. Not Bernie, sorry. Make an express process to choose a successor in one month max, and fight like a beast the time left. Not ideal at all, but keeping the walking dead is just a lost cause.

[LordFall]

Couldn't Kamala Harris have ran? She's decently popular and has a a lot of experience. 

[Hardkill]

 

Edited July 1 by Hardkill

[Chadders]

@integral People will just lap up any old shit he says because they have no idea what is actually going on in the world. What he says sounds good so it must be good! The people are so easily manipulated and led astray. 

I’m of the opinion that if people want to vote Trump, let them vote Trump. I actually don’t get too hung up on that even though it’ll be bad for the US and the rest of the world. People gotta face the karma of their own decisions. Life satisfaction is pretty low across the western world and Trump ain’t gunna change that. Tax the rich, redistribute and bring about conscious shifts by helping people connect with the divine. This is the only way 

[BlueOak]

Let me ask the people talking about age a question.

If your quality of life had skyrocketed in the last 4 years, would you care as much about age? Honest question, try to put aside your biases and look through a neutral lens. If it helps, picture that you are living abroad, and this place called America is a distant memory.

[BlueOak]

America took a further step towards dictatorship, which clears the path towards his rule for another 4 years.

If something can be argued to be an official act, it's okay. So anything a half-competent politician can remember to say, or a lawyer can argue is under the mandate of an official act is okay. The courts power over politicians in America just fell on its face, which is exactly what dictators require.

[Leo Gura]

@BlueOak Biden's age matters. Not as a number but as his obvious cognitive weakness and decline. Biden's health is clearly rapidly declining.

However, it does not matter as much as Trump's planned criminal dictatorship.

Edited July 2 by Leo Gura